Violent deaths and attacks are down. Its entirely possible that the increased presence of US troops has had a small effect, in certain areas.
The main reasons for the drop in violence, are largely unrelated to Bush's splurge of troops.
-Muqtada Al-Sadr declared a 6 month cease fire for his Mahdi Army in August, after a particularly brutal attack by rogue Mahid army militia on muslim pilgrims in karbala. The August ceasefire came after a very bloody June and July. The Mahdi army ceasefire resulted in large reductions in violence and attacks in September and october. Remember, its a 6 month ceasefire. Al Sadr could reactivate his militia at any time.
-Sunni militia have been armed by americans, and are fighting foreign elements. We have armed sunni militia that previously were killing us, and for whom the Shia government in Bagdad remains their hated enemy.
-Four years of ethnic cleansing has been largely successful. Sunni and shia are separated from each other's communites, in many cases by blast proof walls, and barriers.
Actions have consequences. Every decision has a price. We arm sunni militants. Militants who oppose the Shia goverment. Political reconcilliation is going to take generations. What we've done is given the sunni militia more firepower. It doesn't mean the sunni militia are our heart-felt friends or allies. It doesn't mean the sunni militia hate the Shia bagdad goverment any less. Michael Ware made a good point on this. All we done, is paid a price for a little less violence, but fundamentally we've done little to to make the overall situation in iraq more precarious.
The main reasons for the drop in violence, are largely unrelated to Bush's splurge of troops.
-Muqtada Al-Sadr declared a 6 month cease fire for his Mahdi Army in August, after a particularly brutal attack by rogue Mahid army militia on muslim pilgrims in karbala. The August ceasefire came after a very bloody June and July. The Mahdi army ceasefire resulted in large reductions in violence and attacks in September and october. Remember, its a 6 month ceasefire. Al Sadr could reactivate his militia at any time.
-Sunni militia have been armed by americans, and are fighting foreign elements. We have armed sunni militia that previously were killing us, and for whom the Shia government in Bagdad remains their hated enemy.
-Four years of ethnic cleansing has been largely successful. Sunni and shia are separated from each other's communites, in many cases by blast proof walls, and barriers.
Actions have consequences. Every decision has a price. We arm sunni militants. Militants who oppose the Shia goverment. Political reconcilliation is going to take generations. What we've done is given the sunni militia more firepower. It doesn't mean the sunni militia are our heart-felt friends or allies. It doesn't mean the sunni militia hate the Shia bagdad goverment any less. Michael Ware made a good point on this. All we done, is paid a price for a little less violence, but fundamentally we've done little to to make the overall situation in iraq more precarious.
