Chances of Finincial Market Shutdown

can you re-link the article? I got this message...

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I just thought it was interesting. I don't follow the market much though really. Most of my investments are in foreign stuff but I have someone do it for me. I don't care enough to get too involved.
 
Decent piece. The cycle he mentioned on there is indeed what everyone is concerned with. That is why the Fed cut rates in the hopes of stemming the tide. The securitization issue is not going to go away. But in cutting rates they hope to stop or reduce the tide in terms of financing. If they can do that enough without causing a spike in inflation or a collapse of the dollar, we should be fine (although it will still be rough for financial stocks).

But that is the trick. It is a very tough balancing act for the fed with regards to inflation and the dollar valuation on one side and looser credit on the other.

I don't think our financial system will shut down, but I do think it will continue to tighten its belt to the point that consumer spending will eventually slow down and cause a much slower growth rate or even a potential recession should spending slow too much.

Bottom line, keep your head on a swivel if you are in stocks, because this market is going to be extremely volatile for the next 12-18 months.
 
Decent piece. The cycle he mentioned on there is indeed what everyone is concerned with. That is why the Fed cut rates in the hopes of stemming the tide. The securitization issue is not going to go away. But in cutting rates they hope to stop or reduce the tide in terms of financing. If they can do that enough without causing a spike in inflation or a collapse of the dollar, we should be fine (although it will still be rough for financial stocks).

But that is the trick. It is a very tough balancing act for the fed with regards to inflation and the dollar valuation on one side and looser credit on the other.

I don't think our financial system will shut down, but I do think it will continue to tighten its belt to the point that consumer spending will eventually slow down and cause a much slower growth rate or even a potential recession should spending slow too much.

Bottom line, keep your head on a swivel if you are in stocks, because this market is going to be extremely volatile for the next 12-18 months.


Cool, thanks for the advice. I don't know too much about these things so I can't really add to the discussion. I just thought what he had to say was interesting.
 
Cool, thanks for the advice. I don't know too much about these things so I can't really add to the discussion. I just thought what he had to say was interesting.

No problem. It was an interesting piece. That said, I do wish they would expand pieces like that to explain in a bit more detail using laymens terms so as not to spark a panic.
 
No problem. It was an interesting piece. That said, I do wish they would expand pieces like that to explain in a bit more detail using laymens terms so as not to spark a panic.

No shit. Like when he described securitization using the word securitization.

"well they just, you know, securitize it". What a douchebag.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_Insurance_Securitization

Securitization is a structured finance process in which assets, receivables or financial instruments are acquired, classified into pools, and offered as collateral for third-party investment.[1] It involves the selling of financial instruments which are backed by the cash flow or value of the underlying assets.[2]

Securitization typically applies to assets that are illiquid (i.e. cannot easily be sold). It is common in the real estate industry, where it is applied to pools of leased property, and in the lending industry, where it is applied to lenders' claims on mortgages, home equity loans, student loans and other debts.

Any assets can be securitized so long as they are associated with a steady amount of cash flow. Investors "buy" these assets by making loans which are secured against the underlying pool of assets and its associated income stream. Securitization thus "converts illiquid assets into liquid assets"[3] by pooling, underwriting and selling their ownership in the form of asset-backed securities (ABS).[4]

Securitization utilizes a special purpose vehicle (SPV) (alternatively known as a special purpose entity [SPE] or special purpose company [SPC]) in order to reduce the risk of bankruptcy and thereby obtain lower interest rates from potential lenders. A credit derivative is also generally used to change the credit quality of the underlying portfolio so that it will be acceptable to the final investors.

Securitization has evolved from tentative beginnings in the late 1970s to a vital funding source with an estimated total aggregate outstanding of $8.06 trillion (as of the end of 2005, by the Bond Market Association) and new issuance of $3.07 trillion in 2005 in the U.S. markets alone.[citation needed]
 
end result = people will have to carry PMI insurance if they have no equity and will have to live in houses they can afford.
 
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