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Fine Gael, Labour Lead in Irish Election, Exit Poll Signals
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Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland's government may be led by Fine Gael for the first time in 14 years, with the party likely to seek a coalition with Labour in the biggest shift of political power in the country's history.
Fine Gael won 36.1 percent of first-preference votes in an election yesterday, according to an exit poll carried out for Dublin-based broadcaster RTE. Falling short of an overall majority, party leader Enda Kenny may seek an accord with Labour, which drew 20.5 percent support in the poll. Fianna Fail, which has governed since 1997, drew 15.1 percent.
A coalition between the parties "is the most likely outcome," Eamon Gilmore, leader of the Labour Party, said in an interview with RTE today.
The drop in Fianna Fail support reflects voter outrage about rising unemployment and the cost of rescuing banks such as Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc following a real- estate slump. The country was forced to seek a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in November, and agreed on 15 billion euros ($21 billion) in tax increases and spending cuts through 2014 to reduce the budget deficit.
"If there's going to be a Fine Gael-Labour government, it is going to have a huge majority," said Sean Haughey, a Fianna Fail lawmaker. "There is a need for Fianna Fail in the political system but it is not necessarily assured or guaranteed."
'Arrogant'
As of 6:15 p.m. in Dublin, 17 lawmakers had been elected to the Dail, as the Irish parliament is known. Fine Gael and Labor both had six seats, while Sinn Fein and the Socialist Party had one each. Three independent candidates were elected.
"I've traditionally been a Fianna Fail supporter," but they became "totally arrogant," said Tom Regan, 58, a voter in Dublin. "The party that has the best policies at the minute seems to be Fine Gael."
Prime Minister Brian Cowen stepped down as Fianna Fail leader last month and didn't contest the election. Micheal Martin succeeded him.
Fianna Fail's defeat has some parallels in recent political history. In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party enjoyed a half a century of almost unbroken rule before losing power to the Democratic Party of Japan in 2009. In Canada, the Progressive Conservatives was almost wiped out in 1993 when it lost all but two of its 151 seats. The reconstituted Conservative Party didn't win back power until 2006.
'Huge Shift'
The RTE poll showed that Sinn Fein won 10.1 percent of votes and the Greens got 2.7 percent support. Unaffiliated lawmakers won 15.5 percent, according to the poll of 3,500 voters carried out yesterday by Millward Brown Lansdowne. The poll had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
"We are seeing a huge shift," said Garret FitzGerald, a former Fine Gael leader who served two terms as prime minister in the 1980s. "The last time anything happened on this scale was more than 90 years ago."
The European Central Bank and Irish central bank are propping up Ireland's financial institutions with about 140 billion euros, and the government is being pressed to slim down the banking system. The state controls four of the country's six biggest lenders after real-estate loans soured in the wake of the collapse of a decade-long boom.
"I don't see a huge change in overall policy emerging as a result of this election," said Mark Callanan, a lecturer in public policy at the Institute of Public Administration in Dublin. "One thing that marks Ireland out is that we don't have huge ideological battles or major changes in policy when there is a change of government."
Fine Gael, Labour Lead in Irish Election, Exit Poll Signals
Symbol Lookup
MORE BUSINESS
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland's government may be led by Fine Gael for the first time in 14 years, with the party likely to seek a coalition with Labour in the biggest shift of political power in the country's history.
Fine Gael won 36.1 percent of first-preference votes in an election yesterday, according to an exit poll carried out for Dublin-based broadcaster RTE. Falling short of an overall majority, party leader Enda Kenny may seek an accord with Labour, which drew 20.5 percent support in the poll. Fianna Fail, which has governed since 1997, drew 15.1 percent.
A coalition between the parties "is the most likely outcome," Eamon Gilmore, leader of the Labour Party, said in an interview with RTE today.
The drop in Fianna Fail support reflects voter outrage about rising unemployment and the cost of rescuing banks such as Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc following a real- estate slump. The country was forced to seek a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in November, and agreed on 15 billion euros ($21 billion) in tax increases and spending cuts through 2014 to reduce the budget deficit.
"If there's going to be a Fine Gael-Labour government, it is going to have a huge majority," said Sean Haughey, a Fianna Fail lawmaker. "There is a need for Fianna Fail in the political system but it is not necessarily assured or guaranteed."
'Arrogant'
As of 6:15 p.m. in Dublin, 17 lawmakers had been elected to the Dail, as the Irish parliament is known. Fine Gael and Labor both had six seats, while Sinn Fein and the Socialist Party had one each. Three independent candidates were elected.
"I've traditionally been a Fianna Fail supporter," but they became "totally arrogant," said Tom Regan, 58, a voter in Dublin. "The party that has the best policies at the minute seems to be Fine Gael."
Prime Minister Brian Cowen stepped down as Fianna Fail leader last month and didn't contest the election. Micheal Martin succeeded him.
Fianna Fail's defeat has some parallels in recent political history. In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party enjoyed a half a century of almost unbroken rule before losing power to the Democratic Party of Japan in 2009. In Canada, the Progressive Conservatives was almost wiped out in 1993 when it lost all but two of its 151 seats. The reconstituted Conservative Party didn't win back power until 2006.
'Huge Shift'
The RTE poll showed that Sinn Fein won 10.1 percent of votes and the Greens got 2.7 percent support. Unaffiliated lawmakers won 15.5 percent, according to the poll of 3,500 voters carried out yesterday by Millward Brown Lansdowne. The poll had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
"We are seeing a huge shift," said Garret FitzGerald, a former Fine Gael leader who served two terms as prime minister in the 1980s. "The last time anything happened on this scale was more than 90 years ago."
The European Central Bank and Irish central bank are propping up Ireland's financial institutions with about 140 billion euros, and the government is being pressed to slim down the banking system. The state controls four of the country's six biggest lenders after real-estate loans soured in the wake of the collapse of a decade-long boom.
"I don't see a huge change in overall policy emerging as a result of this election," said Mark Callanan, a lecturer in public policy at the Institute of Public Administration in Dublin. "One thing that marks Ireland out is that we don't have huge ideological battles or major changes in policy when there is a change of government."
