APP - Did Biden just have his "Deplorables" moment?

[Teflon Don]

The left is furiously trying to spin Biden's comments about "not being black" if you support Trump over him. The fundamental issue is that like many have said for years, the democrat party just takes the black vote for granted. Every four years white democrat politicians stroll into black churches and tell blacks that if they don't vote for democrats the mean ole republicans will put them back in chains and slavery like the democrats did in the 17-1800s.

Biden's whole appeal to the democrat party leadership was the belief that he could get the black vote they lost when Crooked Hillary lost to President Trump. But, if you look at this Quinnipiac poll, it spells doom for Biden. Now the less sophisticated among us will only look at the top line numbers and walk away thinking Biden will beat Trump 50-39%. But you have to understand how to read polls and look at the methodology.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3661

Here is the methodology

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us05202020_demos_ugjm33.pdf

Now you will see that this poll only samples registered voters and over samples democrats by 10%. This poll is tilted so far toward the democrat party it isn't even funny. If they used a likely voter model AND sampled appropriately, they would be tied OR Trump would be leading.

But, this isn't what spells trouble for Biden. If you look inside this poll, Biden only gets 81% of the black vote. Trump gets 3%. Again the uninitiated will look at the 3% Trump gets and assume a walk away victory for Biden. But, that isn't the case. Understanding recent elections is paramount

Obama got over 90% turnout from the black vote with over 95% of their vote
Crooked Hillary got 88% turnout among the black vote and less than 90% of their vote
Biden is getting 81% of the black vote.

If the black vote depresses further for Biden than it did for Crooked Hillary, he can't win. It is statistically impossible. I think the democrat party knows this which is why they are pushing so hard for "mail in votes". They need to juice the vote in black communities for those who don't turn out so they can mail in on their behalf.

Biden is in big trouble and his honest words with Charlamagne was a death blow.

There is no question the democrat party wants Biden out, remember they allowed Bloomberg to get in because they didn't think Biden was up to it. Then Bloomberg flopped and they cleared the field for Biden by screwing Bernie yet again. But, who can they replace Biden with? They don't want Bernie. Cuomo is dead now because of his nursing home scandal. Newsom is an option, but he wouldn't play in any swing states as an openly queer governor of the most leftist state in the country. Crooked Hillary? Moochelle Obama?

The democrat party is in trouble. You just have to be able to see the signs. They are all over.

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

when a poll over samples a population, they weight it. every poll does this.

The black support though is interesting, and this recent comment certainly wont have helped him.

No one is voting FOR joe biden this election. It's all going to be a referendum on trump (at least - that's what dems want it to be) so really do liberals hate trump more than conservatives love him? which side wants to stick it to the other side more? that's pretty much is what will determine the election.

One advantage I think republicans have is that democrats are so weak and afraid that they'll be too scared to go vote, whereas republicans aren't gonna let corona stop them.

the other thing that can affect the election is the mail in ballots. that's a big thing to watch

 

[Teflon Don]

when a poll over samples a population, they weight it. every poll does this.

The black support though is interesting, and this recent comment certainly wont have helped him.

No one is voting FOR joe biden this election. It's all going to be a referendum on trump (at least - that's what dems want it to be) so really do liberals hate trump more than conservatives love him? which side wants to stick it to the other side more? that's pretty much is what will determine the election.

One advantage I think republicans have is that democrats are so weak and afraid that they'll be too scared to go vote, whereas republicans aren't gonna let corona stop them.

the other thing that can affect the election is the mail in ballots. that's a big thing to watch

Something interesting about the whole mail in ballot thing. There are those who don't even know how to mail something, particularly millennials. They have grown up with texting and email, paying bills online. There are some that probably don't even know how to buy a stamp let alone know where the post office is

Biden is in trouble

As to polls that oversample, not all of them weight their results. Over sampling democrats has always been a problem in these polls

There is no way Biden is beating Trump 50-39% even in a national survey. But, I like polls like these. They always make democrats overconfident and let conservatives know that they can't take anything for granted.

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

this is a HUGE problem

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...enior-voters-started-long-before-coronavirus/

Biden’s lead among 45- to 64-year-olds was 10 points in July and is eight points now — substantially better than Clinton’s nine-point deficit.

In short, Trump’s struggles among seniors — and Biden’s appeal — appear to predate the coronavirus outbreak by a long time.

the unusual feature of the 2020 campaign thus far is that it is “flattening the curve” — that is, the age curve that has characterized voting in the past few presidential elections. Although the last three elections have featured notable divides between different age groups, the unusually high support for Biden among those over 45 has substantially reduced those differences.

pretty much every poll is showing this. Biden for whatever reason is doing crazy good with older people.

biden can sacrifice the blacks because he is CRUSHING a demographic liberals almost NEVER get. he has received a 20% swing from a demographic that hated clinton, and a demographic that historically votes pretty much more than any demographic. this is very very very bad for trump.

I also wonder if strategically it's not good for people to make fun of biden always stroking out and having dementia. boomers may not like that very much.

If these numbers stay as they are, there is no way trump wins in 2020. Obviously I hope I am wrong.