Double Dip Recession?

cawacko

cawacko

Well-known member
I sure hope not. My boy has been looking at buying a house for about a year and he keeps waiting because things have been getting worse. I told him he should pull the trigger now because he found a home he likes. He's still concerned things are dropping and the economy will not improve. I told him to sack up. Oh yeah, and I need a job. Come on economy!!


July data recall risk of recession's double-dip

We don't wish to be alarmist, and one set of data points does not a trend make. But the latest first-time unemployment numbers (up), July retail sales (down) and foreclosure filings (the highest since RealtyTrac started publishing figures four years ago) can't help but bring to mind thoughts of "double-dip." As in recession redux.

UC Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen raised the specter in Sunday's column. "I'm not a professional forecaster," Eichengreen - wisely for an economist - reminded me in an e-mail Thursday. "But I do remember the two double-dip risks I emphasized were the likelihood of weaker retail sales and higher foreclosures."

You might remember Obama adviser and Haas School of Business Professor Laura Tyson saying last month that a second stimulus package might be needed to help cure a "sicker patient" than, she said, the administration had anticipated. Tyson took that back three days later on CNBC. Whether the people she was advising didn't take kindly to her initial recommendation, we can only speculate.

However, while reiterating her come-to-Jesus reassessment in a speech in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Sunday - "We may have hit stability, we may be in the beginning of an upturn" - Tyson also spoke of "lots of downside risks." As in a double-dip recession? "There is always a possibility," Tyson told Dow Jones news service.

With the Fed starting to paint a rosier economic scenario, perhaps the best gloss we can put on it comes from Wells Fargo & Co.'s senior economist, Mark Vitner: "It's going to be a recovery only a statistician can love."


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/08/14/BU9E197URP.DTL
 
We will go way higher and it will be newer companies taking leadership. In may be slow but our best days are ahead. Tons of money to be made.
 
Damocles said:
He posts in all threads wacko, you can always just use the ignore function.
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LOL, but he still somehow feels that I am stalking him and is compelled to respond in an insulting manner even though he does not read my posts.

Dork?
 
Guide to eceonomic and recession terminology:

The Seven Fat Years: A period of mediocore growth occurring during Reagan's time in office

Newt Gingrich's boom: the longest sustained period of economic growth in American history, occurred during Clinton's time in office

The Clinton recession: a recession that began a year after Clinton left office


(Let's just pretend Bush didn't happen)


The Obama recession: a recession that began a year before Obama entered office

The Bush Boom: A hypothetical term for a post-recession boom that may happen during Obama's terms
 
911America4EVER said:
Guide to eceonomic and recession terminology:

The Seven Fat Years: A period of mediocore growth occurring during Reagan's time in office

Newt Gingrich's boom: the longest sustained period of economic growth in American history, occurred during Clinton's time in office

The Clinton recession: a recession that began a year after Clinton left office


(Let's just pretend Bush didn't happen)


The Obama recession: a recession that began a year before Obama entered office

The Bush Boom: A hypothetical term for a post-recession boom that may happen during Obama's terms
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"The Clinton Recession" began in March of 2001. That ≠ a year after Clinton left office, I suspect you exaggerate in the hopes that people will not associate that recession with Clinton....
 
Damocles said:
"The Clinton Recession" began in March of 2001. That ≠ a year after Clinton left office, I suspect you exaggerate in the hopes that people will not associate that recession with Clinton....
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The point is still fairly well made. Talk radio was calling this the "Obama recession" in December. As early as March of this year, the same people who called the '01 recession the "Clinton recession" (correctly) were saying "when is Obama going to stop blaming Bush!"
 
Onceler said:
The point is still fairly well made. Talk radio was calling this the "Obama recession" in December. As early as March of this year, the same people who called the '01 recession the "Clinton recession" (correctly) were saying "when is Obama going to stop blaming Bush!"
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People pretty much stop blaming the previous President nearly right away. Americans have short attention spans.

Recessions are not, however, caused by Presidents. No matter how much we want them to be.

IMO, this is the deep recession that was hoped to be the result of 9/11 attacks (which were an attack on our financial infrastructure, a direct attack on our economy) staved off artificially by orders to "shop", zero percent interest cars, easy access to signature credit, and other bubble-creating temporary fixes.

A President can work with the ebb and flow or they can try to artificially stave off the ebb and flow of an economy, but stop the business cycle? They ultimately cannot.
 
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cawacko said:
I sure hope not. My boy has been looking at buying a house for about a year and he keeps waiting because things have been getting worse. I told him he should pull the trigger now because he found a home he likes. He's still concerned things are dropping and the economy will not improve. I told him to sack up. Oh yeah, and I need a job. Come on economy!!
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Good luck on the job hunt dude!

I don't begrudge this dude's pessimism.

I think the stimulus probably saved us from another Republican great depression.

But, the only way to have a sustained recovery, and to rebuild the middle class is with fundamental change. In our trade policies, and adequate and robust regulation of the financial markets, IMO.

I don't see Obama doing a hell of a lot of that. Not with the Geithners and Summers hacks. If this meltdown was a call for anything, it was a call for boldness on the scale of FDR. Which is why Naomi Klein should be Sec. of the Treasury.
 
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