APP - Expert Credibility in Climate Research

Cypress

Well-known member
I'm shocked, shocked I tell you that new research published in the highly prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found:

1) That 98% of reputable Climate researchers concur with the tenets of the IPCC that humans are largely responsible for climatic warming of the last half century; and

2) The tiny handful that aren't convinced of the IPCC assessment have "relative climate expertise and scientific prominence.... that are substantially below that of the convinced researchers."


who could have predicted that, among researchers who actually do prolific and credible climate research, there is virtually universal consensus that humans are primarily responsible for climate change, and that the very few who don't agree are subpar scientists, with expertise and credibility that is far lower than the scientists who accept human-induced climate change?

Expert credibility in climate change

1.William R. L. Anderegga,1,
2. James W. Prallb,
3. Jacob Haroldc, and
4. Stephen H. Schneidera,d,1

Abstract

Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions.

Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.


http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstract
 
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ONCE AGAIN.... THE QUESTIONS CYPRESS IS SCARED TO ANSWER.....

As for your independent reviews Cypress...

1) who ran those 'independent reviews? (ie... was it Penn State, East Anglia etc...)

2) who made up the panels doing the reviews? (ie... did it include skeptics as well as proponents of global warming? Or did they just include those who already agreed with global warming?)

3) Do you contend that all of the questions/complaints were answered by the 'independent' reviews?

As for your chart showing the temperatures Cypress:

1) No one is arguing with the fact that the earth warmed during the 1970-1995 time frame. Nor is anyone arguing that it has stayed warm since. But do tell us... if MAN is causing global warming... then why has there been no significant warming over the past 15 years? A FACT stated directly by your unimpeachable Jones.

2) Does your chart demonstrate how the changes in temperature are a result of man?

3) Do you think it is scientifically valid that Jones states the reason he thinks man is responsible is due to: "The fact that we can't explain the warming from the 1950s by solar and volcanic forcing"? Because it would seem that he is saying it has to be man because he can't figure out another reason. That hardly seems sound scientifically.

As for the question you never answer Cypress....

WHY is it that the global warming fear mongers have now switched to calling it 'climate change'? If MAN is causing WARMING... and it is 'unequivocal scientific fact'... WHY the change?
 
I wonder why it is that Cypress started yet ANOTHER thread.... rather than simply stick with the 300 other threads he started on Global Warming fear mongering....
 
I'm shocked, shocked I tell you that new research published in the highly prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found:

1) That 98% of reputable Climate researchers concur with the tenets of the IPCC that humans are largely responsible for climatic warming of the last half century; and

2) The tiny handful that aren't convinced of the IPCC assessment have "relative climate expertise and scientific prominence.... that are substantially below that of the convinced researchers."


who could have predicted that, among researchers who actually do prolific and credible climate research, there is virtually universal consensus that humans are primarily responsible for climate change, and that the very few who don't agree are subpar scientists, with expertise and credibility that is far lower than the scientists who accept human-induced climate change?



I am shocked... another example of Cypress running around shouting 'CONSENSUS' rather than his taking the time to actually address questions posed to him.
 
Jesus dude, some of us have jobs with significant responsibilities and can't be logged on here all day. I had no idea you were waiting around for me!

I read through your string of responses and didn't see any legitimate scientific links, and nothing of substance to respond to.

I've already told you I reject your list of questions and demands, seeing as how you got them from rightwing websites which have misinformed you. Routinely. I reject anything you read on a rightwing website, and paraphrased here. Just because you yelp out a question, doesn't mean I'm going to accept the premise of your question as being legitimate. The fact that you were easily duped by Climate Gate makes any question you yelp out - unsupported by a link - to be suspect. I'll be glad to respond to any post you make that is backed by legitimate, and peer reviewed, science.





This was an interesting narrative from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences publication. The media, and rightwingers in the wingnutosphere have routinely tried to create the illusion that there is widespread uncertainty and disagreement in the scientific community about the causes of climate change. This study completely demolishes and debunks that lie.

The media will routinely put some "skeptic" on an equal par with an actual climate scientist to give both sides "equal time". Its poor journalism, but I suppose from the entertainment angle, the media loves to film two dudes or gals arguing.

bottom line: there is virtually universal consensus among people who are trained to know what they're talking about and who do actual research. The IPCC assessment is correct - and is corroborated by multiple independent reputable assessments in the U.S. and other countries.

Even the term "climate skeptic" is misleading. Scientists are skeptical by nature. It's a fundamental requirement of good science. 20 years ago, most scientists were skeptical that humans were impacting the climate. It was only through good science, that the universal consensus was achieved.

These science-deniers don't deserve to be called skeptics. They are, in fact, mis-informers and deceivers. Which is exactly what we saw with the Iraq War, and with the debate about "intelligent design" science.


"Preliminary reviews of scientific literature and surveys of climate scientists indicate striking agreement with the primary conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been responsible for “most” of the “unequivocal” warming of the Earth’s average global temperature over the second half of the twentieth century…

A vocal minority of researchers and other critics contest the conclusions of the mainstream scientific assessment, frequently citing large numbers of scientists whom they believe support their claims. This group, often termed climate change skeptics, contrarians, or deniers, has received large amounts of media attention and wields significant influence in the societal debate about climate change impacts and policy….

Despite media tendencies to present ‘both sides’ in ACC debates [anthropogenic climate change], which can contribute to continued public misunderstanding regarding ACC, not all climate researchers are equal in scientific credibility and expertise in the climate system. This extensive analysis of the mainstream versus skeptical/contrarian researchers suggests a strong role for considering expert credibility in the relative weight of and attention to these groups of researchers in future discussions in media, policy, and public forums regarding anthropogenic climate change.."
 
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I read through your string of responses and didn't see any legitimate scientific links, and nothing of substance to respond to.

There are no scientific links because they are QUESTIONS FOR YOU TO ANSWER YOU MORON.

I've already told you I reject your list of questions and demands, seeing as how you got them from rightwing websites which have misinformed you.

No little leg humper... you won't answer them because you are afraid to do so. So you PRETEND that no one can possibly come up with questions on their own for you to answer.

This is why you continue to look foolish with every single thread you start on this topic.

Routinely. I reject anything you read on a rightwing website, and paraphrased here. Just because you yelp out a question, doesn't mean I'm going to accept the premise of your question as being legitimate. The fact that you were easily duped by Climate Gate makes any question you yelp out - unsupported by a link - to be suspect. I'll be glad to respond to any post you make that is backed by legitimate, and peer reviewed, science.

LMAO... more cowardly behavior displayed above. Typical parrot... just label anything that you don't want to address as 'right wing' or pretend that somehow those questions aren't legitimate.

Tell us Cypress.... how is asking you WHO ran the investigations and WHO sat on the review panels 'illegitimate'?????

Just admit you are afraid to answer and be done with it.

Tell us Cypress... how is taking a DIRECT QUOTE from YOUR UNIMPEACHABLE Jones and asking you a question on his comment 'illegitimate'?????

Just admit you are afraid to answer and be done with it.
 
I wonder why it is that Cypress started yet ANOTHER thread.... rather than simply stick with the 300 other threads he started on Global Warming fear mongering....

Maybe the other threads hold to many bad memories, of the spankings that Cypress had been given.
 
Gee, what a surprising statement from the AGW religion. "Those that agree with us are smarter, those who do not are stupid."

YEt the AGW still fail to address the facts. They base their entire premise on estimated climate patterns going back less than 1 million years. What is that compared to the overall age of the Earth?

Why do they ignore the fact that as little as a million years ago the Earth was MUCH warmer, WITHOUT any input from humans. Why do they ignore the fact that the reason they have no ice core sample older than 600,000 years is THERE WERE NO ICE CAPS - it was TOO WARM!

Why do they ignore the fact that according to all paleo data, we are actually in an ICE AGE - in a period of interglaciation, but still and ice age - which is the exception rather than the norm in global climate? Why do they ignore the fact that for the last 65 million years there have been far more instances of much higher temperatures with little to no ice caps anywhere? WHY do they continue to COMPLETELY ignore these facts, and REFUSE to address any questions based on them?

Bottom line: AGW proponents are nothing less than a bunch of brain dead egocentric twits whose entire concept is based on the idea that the global climate experienced in human written history has been established as an arbitrary, humanocentric "norm" and no matter WHAT the Earth has done naturally in the past, THIS time it's OUR fault.

And when these questions are raised, the ONLY repsonse found is "most climatologists agree" as if science is a democratic process.

As for consensus science, I distinctly remember a time when the VAST majority of scientists in the field of nutrition fully supported the old food pyramid, which suggested a large "base" of grains and carbohydrates, a split middle of fruits and vegetables, a top of meat and dairy, with a tiny peak of fats and sweets. Along come a couple doctors who state that the pyramid is wrong, that it has too many carbs. The consensus ridiculed them, denied their research forcing them to seek lay publications to get their word out because the profressional journals were controlled by the consensus scientists. Yet what do we have now? A much modified food pyramid - modified so much that they could not keep the divisions horizontal, because the FACTS are the old pyramid DID suggest too many carbohydrates, and did, in fact, CAUSE OBESITY if followed as suggested. Compared to the old one, today's pyramid suggests a lot more vegetables, a bit more fruits, a bit more meat and dairy and WAY LESS cereals and grains, the3 primary source of carbohydrates.

There are MANY other examples of consensus science being dead wrong - ESPECIALLY when there is a strong political factor involved. Which brings up the additional fact that AGW also ignores the that motivating support from governments comes primarily from the money this fear mongering idea can generate. Governments are literally drooling like a St Bernard in a meat shop, thinking of all the taxes and fees they can extort from the people in the name of "combating climate change"

Answer these questions, all you AGW twitter heads:

1: By what basis do you assume that climate patterns of the last 600,000 years are the "norm" by which predicted future trends are evaluated?

2: What is the justification for AGW theory ignoring climatological patterns older than those derived from ice core data?

3: If they are NOT claiming recent climate patterns are the norm, by what standards do you support the claim that recent climatological trends are different enough from past patterns to warrant the need for a new factor (ie: human activity) to explain the "changes"?

4: how do you support the claim that recent events ARE a "change" that needs explaining in light of climatological data older than 600,000 years?
 
ROFLMAO @ goodluck.... Cypress and the other fear mongers are too afraid to answer my SIMPLE questions. There is no way in hell they are going to attempt to answer yours.
 
very likely the case. At which time I will once again pose the questions he continues to duck. One day perhaps he will find the courage to actually answer them.
Apparently, when asking questions you must provide links to your questions. I suggest asking them, then linking back to the questions on other threads.
 
Apparently, when asking questions you must provide links to your questions. I suggest asking them, then linking back to the questions on other threads.

It is quite grinding trying to get a parrot to actually respond to questions. Perhaps we should just give him a cracker and let him continue shouting consensus.
 
I totally scanned the thread, and not one single, solitary link to a reputable scientific sources anywhere in sight from anyone in the Flat Earth Society. Just a bunch of conjectures, assertions, and unsubstantiated blather.


I'm adding a new rule to this:

http://www.justplainpolitics.com/showpost.php?p=673219&postcount=105

RULE Number 8: If you were duped by Climate Gate, AmazonGate, and a bunch of other completely debunked Flat Earth nonsense, then nothing you say on climate science can be trusted. You have zero credibility, and no leg to stand on. Your rightwing blogs mislead you. You are required to provide reputable scientific links to support your assertions. The premise of any assertion or question you yelp out will not be accepted unless you can provide the scientific source of the assertion or question.

If you don't want to accept or read the plethora of links to the world's most reputable scientific bodies I gave, if you are impervious to mountains of peer reviewed research, and to the virtually universal consensus of reputable climate researchers, no worries.

I guess you've got climate gate, your rightwing blogs; that's your story and you're sticking with it. No worries.




Here's some excellent light reading for the scientifically informed.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Adminstration's State of the Climate Report for June 2010

]2010 is shattering temperature records, and is on track to be the hottest year on record. And also the ten warmest years on record are all since 1995.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2010&month=6&submitted=Get+Report


.....and this is a good article, from a prestigious journal which details the degree to which climate scientists are threatened and harrassed by the fringe Flat Earth Society. It's a McCarthyist trendd actually a trend going back decades in science. Especially environmental science, or evolutionary science. The corporate fat cats, the christian evangelicals, and the Climate Gate clowns are very anti-science and apparently prone to diaper pooping, lying, and smearing by scientists who are just doing their jobs.


Scientific American Journal

"Researchers must purge e-mail in-boxes daily of threatening correspondence, simply part of the job of being a climate scientist"


Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, has a 19-page document of "extremely foul, nasty, abusive" e-mails he's received just since November.

Australian author and academic Clive Hamilton noted that many of the country's most distinguished climate scientists are increasingly the target of e-mail attacks aimed at driving them from the public debate.

continued....

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=climate-cyber-bullying




PS: I have a demanding job and a life, dudes. I'll try to inform you of my schedule for the few minutes I can spend here, so you're not waiting around for hours totally stressing out about me! Cheers and Carry on.
 
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I noticed he came back without answering any of the questions... We didn't even make them hard to find by hiding them in some secret other thread that he started.
 
I couldn't care less if cypress is a warmer or not. The climate scientists have been shown to be biased, so the only thing to do is what Steve M does. Audit their work. Keep them honest.

It doesn't really even matter if the climate team's collusion and bullying is established by inquiry, the bottom line is the climate team will never be able to control the debate like they used to before this happened and that's good enough for me. If they can prove their theory through honest analysis then I'll be the first to jump on board. As it is now, the science has too many flaws and too many unknowns which are mistakenly minimized

water vapor and clouds are what I'm refering to.
 
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