Fuck

FUCK THE POLICE

911 EVERY DAY
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Lulz on the shark. Also I still think Obama will win. I wonder what Gary Johnson does in your equation.
 
Well, it seems as though Romney's momentum has finally stopped, and the numbers are going to coalesce around this point. So, this puts Obama about back in the position he was two months ago.
 
well now he is

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Well, I meant "leading" as in "intrade or fivethirtyeight, at some point, said that he was more likely than Obama to actually win the election". Fivethirtyeights model is designed to be less noisy, as it takes into account economic data and other factors besides polls (the polls, though, are given more and more weight as the election approaches). The now-cast doesn't do this, it just uses polls, but it also weights polling firms by trustworthiness and assumes a house effect, unlike the RCP, which simply does an average of various polls.
 
how does 538 rank rasmuessen? If I recall, it was the most accurate in 2008. So I'm curious how 538 treats them
 
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