Gallup shows Obama in commanding lead

As Vince Carter says this election is over!


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As I said before, Dukakis had a double digit lead 3 months before the 1988 election.

I was just having a little fun posting that. Do things look good right now electorally for Obama? Yes, they do. If I was forced to bet money today I would put it on Obama. But as you said things can and do change and nothing right now is guaranteed.
 
As I said before, Dukakis had a double digit lead 3 months before the 1988 election.


You said it, but is it true? Dukakis had a big lead after his convention in July 1988, but that was completely wiped out by the end of August. By the present stage of the election in 1988, Bush was up by almost 5 points.

Here's a stat for you: of the 19 elections since 1936, the person leading the polls at this stage won 18 the popular vote and 17 won the Electoral College. The exceptions are Thomas Dewey losing in 1948 and Al Gore losing in 2000. So, like, while it's interesting that Dukakis had a significant convention bounce in July 0f 1988, it isn't very helpful from a prognosticator's perspective.

Also, for the Party Like It's 1980 Crowd, note that Reagan was leading at this stage of the 1980 election.
 
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