Goldman Sachs sees Trump tariffs spiking inflation, stunting growth and raising recession risks

C

Cypress

Well-known member

Goldman Sachs sees Trump tariffs spiking inflation, stunting growth and raising recession risks​

Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill.

In a note Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed.”

The firm raised its forecast for inflation this year to 3.5%, cut its GDP outlook to just 1% and raised its unemployment view to 4.5%.



 
Cypress said:
Every Republican president since 1990 has crashed the economy.
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here is some reading on that point.
CNN reported in October 2020 that 10 of the last 11 recessions started under Republican presidents, and added: "Every Republican president since Benjamin Harrison, who served from 1889 to 1893, had a recession start in their first term in office."<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._...by_presidential_party#cite_note-CNN_Stocks2-3"><span>[</span>3<span>]</span></a> The National Bureau of Economic Research reports the start date of recessions,<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._...esidential_party#cite_note-NBER_Recessions-27"><span>[</span>27<span>]</span></a> and the following list includes the president in office at that time and their party:


  1. February 2020 (Trump, Republican; House, Democratic; Senate, Republican)
  2. December 2007 (Bush 43, Republican; House, Democratic; Senate, Democratic)
  3. March 2001 (Bush 43, Republican; House, Republican; Senate, Republican)
  4. July 1990 (Bush 41, Republican; House, Democratic; Senate, Democratic)
  5. July 1981 (Reagan, Republican; House, Democratic; Senate, Democratic)
  6. January 1980 (Carter, Democratic; House, Democratic; Senate, Democratic)
  7. November 1973 (Nixon, Republican; House, Democratic; Senate, Democratic)
  8. December 1969 (Nixon, Republican; House, Democratic; Senate, Democratic)
  9. April 1960 (Eisenhower, Republican; House, Democratic; Senate, Democratic)
  10. August 1957 (Eisenhower, Republican; House, Democratic; Senate, Democratic)
  11. July 1953 (Eisenhower, Republican; House, Republican; Senate, Republican)
  12. November 1948 (Truman, Democratic; House, Republican; Senate, Republican)

Blinder and Watson estimated that the economy was in recession for 49 quarters from 1949–2013; 8 of these quarters were under Democrats, with 41 under Republicans.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._...dential_party#cite_note-Blinder_Watson_2016-1"><span>[</span>1<span>]</span></a> The 2020 recession brings that to 50 quarters total in recession, 42 under Republicans (84%) and 8 under Democrats (16%).<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._...esidential_party#cite_note-NBER_Recessions-27"><span>[</span>27<span>]</span></a>
 
They sold a lot of debt to off-shore scams, so of course they hate the idea of on-shoring again; makes a lot of their scams worthless, and all those bribes to Red Chinese Cadre go up in smoke. Labor racketeering pays the bills and the big banks and Funds. Trump is going back to the basics and making the U.S. productive again; some in the financial sector see their 600% returns they feel entitled to vanishing.
 
Walt said:
There might still be a way out of stagflation, but it is looking more and more doubtful.
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There's a few ways. One is the 25th Amendment. Another is for the MAGAt Congress to abide by their oaths and do their fucking jobs. A third is for God to take Trump home.

NicIVOG.jpeg
 
Dutch Uncle said:
There's a few ways. One is the 25th Amendment. Another is for the MAGAt Congress to abide by their oaths and do their fucking jobs. A third is for God to take Trump home.

NicIVOG.jpeg
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IF McConnell and the Republicans HAD up held the oath they took to be unbiased jurors back in Trump's last impeachment trail where McConnell even came out and said that the evidence that was put forth DID show Trump DID do what he was charged with and IF he had voted on the evidence HE even said showed Trump was guilty we wouldn't be having the problems we are now.
I put NO faith in Republicans up holding any oath they take.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
There's a few ways. One is the 25th Amendment. Another is for the MAGAt Congress to abide by their oaths and do their fucking jobs. A third is for God to take Trump home.
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We might be too far down the path towards stagflation for trump's death to change that, or maybe if he did die soon, stagflation could be prevented. trump's death would definitely lessen the stagflation. Vance is terrible, but head and shoulders better than trump.
 
Walt said:
We might be too far down the path towards stagflation for trump's death to change that, or maybe if he did die soon, stagflation could be prevented. trump's death would definitely lessen the stagflation. Vance is terrible, but head and shoulders better than trump.
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I can guarantee you this:

Even though MAGA morons on this forum claimed to vote for Trump to 'save' the economy, if Trump crashes the economy they will still be cheering :cheer: for him like mindless lemmings.
 
A new poll by Harvard CAPS-Harris reveals the majority of the country backs President Donald J. Trump and his actions to bring much-needed reforms that are making America great again.


  • Americans overwhelmingly support President Trump’s agenda.
    • 81% support deporting criminal illegal immigrants.
    • 76% support a “full-scale effort to find and eliminate fraud and waste in government.”
    • 76% support closing the border with additional security and policies.
    • 69% support keeping men out of women’s sports.
    • 68% support government declaring there are only two genders.
    • 65% support ending race-based hiring in government.
    • 63% support “freezing and re-evaluating all foreign aid expenditures and the department that handled them.”
    • 61% support reciprocal tariffs.
    • 60% support direct U.S. negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
    • 59% support cutting government spending already approved by Congress.
    • 57% support ending the ban on new offshore drilling.
  • Most Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance — including pluralities of men, women, independents, and Americans who live in urban, suburban, and rural areas — while almost six-in-ten say he’s doing a better job than President Biden.
  • Almost half of Americans believe the U.S. economy is “strong” under President Trump — the highest number since 2021 — while a plurality say his policies will make them “financially better off.”
  • Americans are significantly more optimistic about the direction of the country, with those who say we’re on the right track up 14 points over last month.
  • Americans strongly support President Trump’s effort to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in government.
    • 77% support a “full examination of all government expenditures.”
    • 72% agree there should be a government agency “focused on efficiency.”
    • 70% say government is “filled with waste, fraud, and inefficiency.”
    • Two-thirds say Congress should join the “effort to reduce government expenditures.”
  • Americans back President Trump’s action to protect American workers.
    • 61% support reciprocal tariffs.
    • 57% say tariffs are an “effective foreign and economic policy tool.”
    • 54% say tariffs will help get “concessions from other countries.”
  • President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Attorney General Pam Bondi all enjoy net positive favorability.
 
Earl said:
A new poll by Harvard CAPS-Harris reveals the majority of the country backs President Donald J. Trump and his actions to bring much-needed reforms that are making America great again.


  • Americans overwhelmingly support President Trump’s agenda.
    • 81% support deporting criminal illegal immigrants.
    • 76% support a “full-scale effort to find and eliminate fraud and waste in government.”
    • 76% support closing the border with additional security and policies.
    • 69% support keeping men out of women’s sports.
    • 68% support government declaring there are only two genders.
    • 65% support ending race-based hiring in government.
    • 63% support “freezing and re-evaluating all foreign aid expenditures and the department that handled them.”
    • 61% support reciprocal tariffs.
    • 60% support direct U.S. negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
    • 59% support cutting government spending already approved by Congress.
    • 57% support ending the ban on new offshore drilling.
  • Most Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance — including pluralities of men, women, independents, and Americans who live in urban, suburban, and rural areas — while almost six-in-ten say he’s doing a better job than President Biden.
  • Almost half of Americans believe the U.S. economy is “strong” under President Trump — the highest number since 2021 — while a plurality say his policies will make them “financially better off.”
  • Americans are significantly more optimistic about the direction of the country, with those who say we’re on the right track up 14 points over last month.
  • Americans strongly support President Trump’s effort to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in government.
    • 77% support a “full examination of all government expenditures.”
    • 72% agree there should be a government agency “focused on efficiency.”
    • 70% say government is “filled with waste, fraud, and inefficiency.”
    • Two-thirds say Congress should join the “effort to reduce government expenditures.”
  • Americans back President Trump’s action to protect American workers.
    • 61% support reciprocal tariffs.
    • 57% say tariffs are an “effective foreign and economic policy tool.”
    • 54% say tariffs will help get “concessions from other countries.”
  • President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Attorney General Pam Bondi all enjoy net positive favorability.
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What's the date on that new poll?
 
Walt said:
We might be too far down the path towards stagflation for trump's death to change that, or maybe if he did die soon, stagflation could be prevented. trump's death would definitely lessen the stagflation. Vance is terrible, but head and shoulders better than trump.
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I have no doubt the impact of the 47th President will be hurting Americans for decades to come.
 
Earl said:
A new poll by Harvard CAPS-Harris reveals the majority of the country backs President Donald J. Trump and his actions to bring much-needed reforms that are making America great again.


  • Americans overwhelmingly support President Trump’s agenda.
    • 81% support deporting criminal illegal immigrants.
    • 76% support a “full-scale effort to find and eliminate fraud and waste in government.”
    • 76% support closing the border with additional security and policies.
    • 69% support keeping men out of women’s sports.
    • 68% support government declaring there are only two genders.
    • 65% support ending race-based hiring in government.
    • 63% support “freezing and re-evaluating all foreign aid expenditures and the department that handled them.”
    • 61% support reciprocal tariffs.
    • 60% support direct U.S. negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.
    • 59% support cutting government spending already approved by Congress.
    • 57% support ending the ban on new offshore drilling.
  • Most Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance — including pluralities of men, women, independents, and Americans who live in urban, suburban, and rural areas — while almost six-in-ten say he’s doing a better job than President Biden.
  • Almost half of Americans believe the U.S. economy is “strong” under President Trump — the highest number since 2021 — while a plurality say his policies will make them “financially better off.”
  • Americans are significantly more optimistic about the direction of the country, with those who say we’re on the right track up 14 points over last month.
  • Americans strongly support President Trump’s effort to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in government.
    • 77% support a “full examination of all government expenditures.”
    • 72% agree there should be a government agency “focused on efficiency.”
    • 70% say government is “filled with waste, fraud, and inefficiency.”
    • Two-thirds say Congress should join the “effort to reduce government expenditures.”
  • Americans back President Trump’s action to protect American workers.
    • 61% support reciprocal tariffs.
    • 57% say tariffs are an “effective foreign and economic policy tool.”
    • 54% say tariffs will help get “concessions from other countries.”
  • President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Attorney General Pam Bondi all enjoy net positive favorability.
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First, ex-Captain Earl, that poll was last month, only a month into Trump's term. You knuckleheads keep saying, "he's only been in office two months. Give him a chance" then flip-flop and declare victory less barely two months into his term.

The stock market is down, the economic forecast is grim. Once the impact of Musk's chainsawing our government begins to impact most Americans be it veterans, tax returns, health services, etc, that's when you'll see the negative impact upon Trump's numbers.

The only chance they have of winning the Midterms is for the DOGE to rig the election...which they are already working on.
 
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