"All we really know is the number of early votes cast."
yep .. democrats always assume 100 k registered democrats having voted .. means that 100 k votes are cast for hillary .. when actually it may be 75 k votes for hillary .. and 25 k for Donald ..
"looking at African-American turnout or overall Democratic turnout"
"just 15 percent of the voters who have cast a ballot so far are African-American, compared to 25 percent in 2012." quoting newsweek
and a 4x higher percentage than usual of these will be voting for Donald (at least 20% vs usual 5%)
"Plus we’re incorporating the error margins of public polling into our estimates, which will be even greater for demographic subsamples."
one of many sampling errors in the polls this time around ..
"So basically, we’re left without really knowing how the early voting electorate is voting, without knowing how the Election Day electorate is likely to vote"
true ..
"But if predictions from 2012 were iffy, predictions from 2010 and 2014 were awful. In 2010, analysts saw huge Democratic advantages in turnout in places such as Ohio and Iowa and thought that perhaps there was no enthusiasm gap in the election. In 2014, it was widely assumed that early vote totals were good news for Democrats in states including North Carolina and Iowa; Thom Tillis ended up winning in North Carolina on the back of strong Election Day turnout, while the 2014 Iowa Senate race was decidedly not close (as early vote analysts had suggested); Joni Ernst won by almost 10 points."
the enthusiasm gap .. few people LIKE the direction the democrats are leading the Country ..
"But it’s most dangerous when we have good reason to believe there has to be a pattern."
esp this election season .. it's defied all norms ..
"Remember that in 2012, Romney narrowly won North Carolina. As Bitzer's data clearly shows, Democratic participation is down"
yep .. even Romney won NC in 2012 .. and the Dem votor Turnout is already WAY down from last time .. and Rep are getting out BIG time !!
0% for Hillary in NC // take it to the bank
" a lot of the polls are going to be off, including in places like Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin "
gonna be a surprise to Some People ..
ALSO on a side note ... Hispanic Voting is Up .. Which is great news .. Donald is ahead with most LEGAL Latinos .. (aka most of those that vote) ..
it's the fence jumpers that hate Trump .. Many Latinos dislike the bad wrap the Illegals give them ..
plus they compete for housing their neighborhoods and for the same types of jobs .. Most Hispanics that have been here 2+ generations will vote Trump ..
