Tranquillus in Exile
New member
Mikhail Khodarenko is a retired colonel formerly of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. Two weeks before Putin launched his “special military operation”, Khodarenko published an article in Nezavisimaya Gazeta with his predictions of what to expect if Russia attacked Ukraine. (RT thought it was too intellectually challenging - only kidding.)
Here are some excerpts:
‘To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of people. No one will meet the Russian army with flowers in Ukraine.’
‘It seems that the events in the south-east of Ukraine in 2014 did not teach anyone anything. Then, they expected that the entire left-bank Ukraine would turn into “Novorossia” in a single impulse. But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossia” quietly died.’
‘Massive strategic strikes will inflict heavy losses on a potential enemy. But to expect to crush the armed forces of an entire state with just one such blow is simply unbridled optimism in the course of planning combat operations. It must be added that the stocks of high-precision weapons in the Russian armed forces are not of an unlimited nature. This arsenal is absolutely not enough to wipe out a state the size of France and with a population of more than 40 million.’
‘It is somehow forgotten that the armed formations of the Afghan opposition during the conflict of 1979-1989 did not have a single aircraft and not a single combat helicopter. And the war in that country dragged on for 10 years. The Chechen fighters did not have a single aircraft either. And the fight against them continued for several years and cost a lot of blood and casualties. The armed forces of Ukraine still have combat aircraft as well as means of air defence.’
‘Over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards. Modern weapons and equipment are being supplied and continue to be supplied to Ukraine from many countries of NATO. This army cannot be taken lightly.’
‘With regard to the assertion that Western countries will not send a single soldier to die for Ukraine, it should be noted that this is likely to be the case. However, this does not at all rule out massive assistance to the armed forces of Ukraine from the collective West with a wide variety of weapons and military equipment and bulk deliveries of all kinds of materiel. In this regard, the West has already shown a consolidated position, unprecedented until now, which it seems was not predicted in Moscow.’
‘The Russian army in the course of a hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet another Stalingrad or Grozny. There will be no blitzkrieg in Ukraine. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests.’
Khodarenko was ridiculed, but he was right on every point. Putin seems to have thought that overthrowing the elected ‘Kyiv regime’ would be as easy as grabbing Crimea in 2014. His military advisers should have told him the truth. Then - if he listened - he might not have found himself in the dead end that he is in now. And his apologists wouldn’t have to tie themselves in knots.
Here are some excerpts:
‘To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of people. No one will meet the Russian army with flowers in Ukraine.’
‘It seems that the events in the south-east of Ukraine in 2014 did not teach anyone anything. Then, they expected that the entire left-bank Ukraine would turn into “Novorossia” in a single impulse. But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossia” quietly died.’
‘Massive strategic strikes will inflict heavy losses on a potential enemy. But to expect to crush the armed forces of an entire state with just one such blow is simply unbridled optimism in the course of planning combat operations. It must be added that the stocks of high-precision weapons in the Russian armed forces are not of an unlimited nature. This arsenal is absolutely not enough to wipe out a state the size of France and with a population of more than 40 million.’
‘It is somehow forgotten that the armed formations of the Afghan opposition during the conflict of 1979-1989 did not have a single aircraft and not a single combat helicopter. And the war in that country dragged on for 10 years. The Chechen fighters did not have a single aircraft either. And the fight against them continued for several years and cost a lot of blood and casualties. The armed forces of Ukraine still have combat aircraft as well as means of air defence.’
‘Over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards. Modern weapons and equipment are being supplied and continue to be supplied to Ukraine from many countries of NATO. This army cannot be taken lightly.’
‘With regard to the assertion that Western countries will not send a single soldier to die for Ukraine, it should be noted that this is likely to be the case. However, this does not at all rule out massive assistance to the armed forces of Ukraine from the collective West with a wide variety of weapons and military equipment and bulk deliveries of all kinds of materiel. In this regard, the West has already shown a consolidated position, unprecedented until now, which it seems was not predicted in Moscow.’
‘The Russian army in the course of a hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet another Stalingrad or Grozny. There will be no blitzkrieg in Ukraine. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests.’
Khodarenko was ridiculed, but he was right on every point. Putin seems to have thought that overthrowing the elected ‘Kyiv regime’ would be as easy as grabbing Crimea in 2014. His military advisers should have told him the truth. Then - if he listened - he might not have found himself in the dead end that he is in now. And his apologists wouldn’t have to tie themselves in knots.