Housing – Greedy Investors – Poor Fed Policy – Terrorism

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It’s obviously no secret that the housing market is in a serious hangover. Now what really caused this bubble to form and then bust?

Most, especially on the left blame it on those “Greedy Capitalists”. Mortgage brokers that got people into homes with arms that when adjusted the buyer would no longer be able to afford it. Even though homebuyers knew what they were getting into due to RESPA laws. So is it the greedy capitalists or people trying to live a lifestyle they can’t afford?

The Federal Reserve at one point lowered the Federal Funds rate to 1% and left it there far too long. This led to cheap money and when you have cheap money it leads to riskier investments. This leads to bad money chasing out good money and creates bubbles. Many, especially on the left scorn lenders for these “teaser rates” however the real “teaser rate” was given out by the government with an artificially low interest rate that when the economy stabilized rose 4.25%. So while we hear the denouncing of unscrupulous lenders the real culprit of the teaser rates was created by the government.

So why did they government offer these artificially low rates? Well after 9/11 there was a great concern about the economy as a whole. To spark investment in hopes to keep the economy moving the Fed decided the appropriate move was to offer these low rates. Now this helped for the last 6 years. The economy has been good and the housing market was one of the main beneficiaries. Once the real estate bubble took off there was no stopping it until the bubble would pop.

So who do you think is the biggest culprit for the housing bubble and the credit crunch which is now affecting the stock market and jobs? Do we blame “Greedy Capitalists”, poor decisions of the government and the Fed or the terrorists who created a fear that lead to the rates that lead to the bubble and many good people to foreclosure?

My opinion is that the terrorists are finally having the impact on the economy they intended. The Fed could only string the public on so long before things would start to crash down. What options did the Fed have? Maybe none, we learned in the Great Depression that in a bad recession the answer is not tougher contracted money but that you liquidate banks. Of course the Great Depression would have been nothing more than a bad recession if the Fed would have not contracted the money supply. So the Fed, at least looking at past history really had no choice. However the thing that makes this different is the panic was caused by terrorism and not the business cycle.
 
I don't agree. The housing Bubble was growing before the terrorists attacked. People bought without regard to the fact that even housing fluctuates in pricing, they pulled too much 'equity' from their homes which created a bill too larget to pay, then the market fell and they were unable to reup for as much as they owed, to reindemnify their debt and start over.

It is irresponsibility on both the consumer and the lenders that caused the bubble.
 
That's not the story the #'s tell:

After 9-11 the fed funds rate went from 3 1/4% down to 1% and they had already dropped from 6 1/2% after the stock market bubble collapsed. The 30 yr notes went from 7.75% down to 6 1/8% after 9-11. This allowed builders to get money cheaper and refinace banks to get and offer "teaser" rates and people overspent thinking they would refinance. You can also see that record permits were pulled for new construction in 02, 03, 04, and 05 after the rate was cut so deep. So I'd agree that the stock market bubble had some affect also as rates we're being lowered the 9-11 attacks ensured they bottomed out so low that risky investments, especially in real estate were attractive to consumers and lenders. Without these teaser rates the system simply would not allow this to happen.
 
That's not the story the #'s tell:

After 9-11 the fed funds rate went from 3 1/4% down to 1% and they had already dropped from 6 1/2% after the stock market bubble collapsed. The 30 yr notes went from 7.75% down to 6 1/8% after 9-11. This allowed builders to get money cheaper and refinace banks to get and offer "teaser" rates and people overspent thinking they would refinance. You can also see that record permits were pulled for new construction in 02, 03, 04, and 05 after the rate was cut so deep. So I'd agree that the stock market bubble had some affect also as rates we're being lowered the 9-11 attacks ensured they bottomed out so low that risky investments, especially in real estate were attractive to consumers and lenders. Without these teaser rates the system simply would not allow this to happen.
You are basically stating that people over-borrowed, but it was because of the terrorist attacks. IMO, there was a recession, they were lowering rates to begin with.

While some action was taken, not enough of it was because of 9/11 to attempt to blame it wholly on 9/11. While it would be fun to 'blame' the housing markets on terrorism, it just doesn't seem likely enough considering that other areas with far more frequent terrorism, some in the past, do not have the same problems on a whole, like Ireland for instance.
 
Most of the people that are going to suffer from bubble burst tend to be the same one's that artificially drove it up in the first place. Lenders, Trump-wannabees, and people living above their means.
 
You are basically stating that people over-borrowed, but it was because of the terrorist attacks. IMO, there was a recession, they were lowering rates to begin with.

I'm not saying terrorism is the sole reason, the stock bubble contributed. However I'm saying artificially low rates are the main reason and the main reason the rates were as artificially low as they were was due to 9-11 as the Fed feared the economy could fallout. You can read about the Feds reaction to 9-11 in former Fed Governor Lawrence Meyers book "A Term At The Fed".
 
Bottom line..............

Investors need to keep their greedy fingures outta basic needs...housing,food,utlities,medical and transportation...this will cause a ripple effect that will bite them in the proverbial butt!, and so it should!
 
I'm not saying terrorism is the sole reason, the stock bubble contributed. However I'm saying artificially low rates are the main reason and the main reason the rates were as artificially low as they were was due to 9-11 as the Fed feared the economy could fallout. You can read about the Feds reaction to 9-11 in former Fed Governor Lawrence Meyers book "A Term At The Fed".
You are ignoring the fact that the houses were overvalued, people were able to take out more than they should. They weren't overvalued because of the rate of interest. It was the housing bubble not the stock bubble that has caused this particular mess.

People ignored the fluctuation in the real estate market, just as they did with stocks. Some people get caught owing.

To blame this on the terrorist attacks would be ignoring market fluctuations that happen regardless of terrorism. While rates may have been lowered after the 9/11 attacks it was largely due to the fact that the nation was in recession or early recovery. Not because of the attacks, because markets fluctuate.
 
You are ignoring the fact that the houses were overvalued, people were able to take out more than they should. They weren't overvalued because of the rate of interest. It was the housing bubble not the stock bubble that has caused this particular mess.

While rates may have been lowered after the 9/11 attacks it was largely due to the fact that the nation was in recession or early recovery. Not because of the attacks, because markets fluctuate.


One your first point. The reason real estates values went up so much was due to the high demand for housing and land. The high demand was due to people being able to afford more than they ever could due to lower rates and wanted to buy new or refinance.

On your second point the Fed Funds rate had not been lower than 3.25% since 1965. 9-11 caused rates to be at least 2.25% lower than the previous lowest in recent history and close to 5% lower than the average. That's alot more for your money until the rate increases.
 
One your first point. The reason real estates values went up so much was due to the high demand for housing and land. The high demand was due to people being able to afford more than they ever could due to lower rates and wanted to buy new or refinance.

On your second point the Fed Funds rate had not been lower than 3.25% since 1965. 9-11 caused rates to be at least 2.25% lower than the previous lowest in recent history and close to 5% lower than the average. That's alot more for your money until the rate increases.
This was not the only reason that prices were higher. Unless you want to ignore the previous two decades as the prices rose and pretend they only got high after 9/11.

The prices rose above their value and would have even without 9/11.

In fact, the lower rates simply extended the time until that bubble had burst, it was prepared for it before 9/11.
 
Investors need to keep their greedy fingures outta basic needs...housing,food,utlities,medical and transportation...this will cause a ripple effect that will bite them in the proverbial butt!, and so it should!

Geezez, what a stupid comment. We'd all starve to death if they followed that idea.
 
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