Guno צְבִי
We fight, We win
There have been significant population shifts in the last two decades in this country, and that has had a big impact on U.S. politics.
These demographic shifts have also coincided with shifts within the parties. Republicans have been able to win over larger percentages of whites without college degrees, while Democrats have gained with college-educated white voters and Asian Americans, while also largely maintaining advantages with Black voters and Latinos.
Whites with degrees, meanwhile, are on the rise in the Blue Wall states — up 8 points in Pennsylvania, 6 points in Wisconsin and 5 points in Michigan since 2008. In Wisconsin, they're up 4 points just since 2020.
It wasn’t just the Blue Wall, either. White college-educated voters shifted heavily away from Trump almost everywhere. In Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, they moved away from Trump by double-digits — by 30 points in Georgia, 19 in North Carolina, 13 in Arizona and 9 in Nevada.
These demographic shifts have also coincided with shifts within the parties. Republicans have been able to win over larger percentages of whites without college degrees, while Democrats have gained with college-educated white voters and Asian Americans, while also largely maintaining advantages with Black voters and Latinos.
White voters without college degrees have declined as a share of the electorate everywhere pretty significantly since 2008, while Latinos, AAPI voters and whites with degrees have increased dramatically
Whites without degrees were a majority of voters overall in 2008, but are now projected to be less than 40% in 2024.Democrats have held up in the Blue Wall states because white non-college voters vote differently there than in the South — and the Blue Wall has more college-educated white voters than at any other time
White voters without degrees in the two southern swing states, Georgia and North Carolina, are much more conservative.Whites with degrees, meanwhile, are on the rise in the Blue Wall states — up 8 points in Pennsylvania, 6 points in Wisconsin and 5 points in Michigan since 2008. In Wisconsin, they're up 4 points just since 2020.
It wasn’t just the Blue Wall, either. White college-educated voters shifted heavily away from Trump almost everywhere. In Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, they moved away from Trump by double-digits — by 30 points in Georgia, 19 in North Carolina, 13 in Arizona and 9 in Nevada.
