If isreal attacks Iran oil will go to 500.

C

Chapdog

Abreast of the situations
How do i get this logic?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, strategically important waterway between the Gulf of Oman in the southeast and the Persian Gulf in the southwest. On the north coast is Iran and on the south coast is the United Arab Emirates and Musandam, an exclave of Oman.

The strait at its narrowest is 21 miles wide. It is the only sea passage to the open ocean for large areas of the petroleum-exporting Persian Gulf States. It is widely cited that 20 percent of the world's oil supply passes through the strait, making it one of the world's strategically important chokepoints.


Iran will use the threat of blockade or disruption as a mechanism to drive oil speculation to 500 a barrel. The straight is so important that countries like japan would completely collapse since they get almost all there oil from it.

In fact this very threat of imminent conflict is part of what has driven oil to where it is today.
 
On June 29, 2008, the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Ali Mohammed Jafari, stated that if Iran were attacked by Israel or the United States, it would seal off the Strait of Hormuz, thereby wreaking havoc in oil markets. This statement followed other more ambiguous threats from Iran's oil minister and other government officials that a Western attack on Iran would result in oil supply turmoil.

In response, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, commander of the U.S. 5th Fleet stationed in Bahrain across the Persian Gulf from Iran, warned that such an action by Iran would be considered an act of war, and that the U.S. would not allow Iran to effectively hold hostage nearly a third of the world's oil supply.
 
U.S. Military Chief Warns Against Any Attack on Iran

Wednesday, July 2, 2008 10:58 PM

At a news conference, Admiral Mike Mullen refused to reveal any substance from his recent meetings in Israel, which came shortly after Israeli forces had conducted an extensive exercise that many interpreted as preparation for an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. But Admiral Mullen warned that any "destabilizing acts" could have unpredictable consequences, and it would be difficult for the United States to respond.

"Opening up a third front right now would be extremely stressful on us," said Admiral Mullen. "That doesn't mean we don't have capacity or reserve. But that would really be very challenging and also the consequences of that, sometimes, are very difficult to predict."

The admiral says that is why he prefers the current U.S. and international policy of trying to convince Iranian leaders to abandon their nuclear weapons program through a package of incentives and punishments.

Admiral Mullen, who is Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke just a few days after news organizations quoted an unnamed senior defense official as saying there is increased likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran before the end of the year. The official was quoted as saying Israel believes if it waits any longer, Iran will have a nuclear weapon or a sophisticated air defense system, or both. Admiral Mullen says Israel has predicted faster Iranian progress than American analysts have.

Admiral Mullen was asked whether there is "a high stakes bluffing game" going on.

"It is high stakes, it's no question, in this part of the world," he said. "And I guess I'd just leave it at that."

Admiral Mullen also endorsed comments earlier Wednesday by the U.S. Naval commander in the Middle East. Admiral Kevin Cosgriff said the United States will not allow Iran to close the Straits of Hormuz, at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, as Iran has threatened to do if it is attacked. Admiral Mullen said Iran has the ability to create a "hazard" in the Straits, but not to sustain it against U.S. forces.
 
Oil companies can't wait. Their profit is a fixed percentage. So high prices serve them well. The cost of moving liquid around is the same regardless.
 
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