APP - ILA Election post mortem

Teflon Don

Teflon Don

I'm back baby
So because I am always re-evaluating how I look at things, I will provide my own self analysis of what I got wrong and what I think I got right about last night's election

There was definitely a Kavanaugh effect in the Senate. So far every democrat that voted against Kavanaugh went down in flames. The only one to survive so far is Manchin and he voted to confirm. Jury still out on Tester. So I got that right

I also was right about this not being a BIG BLUE WAVE or TSUNAMI. Those on the left who now claim that nobody ever predicted it are not being honest.

This is what I got wrong. I mistakenly believed that the anger about Kavanaugh would extend outside of the Senate races and would bleed over into other House races. I thought that voters would punish democrats in general for the actions of Senate democrats. It was the only reason I thought the GOP had a chance of holding the House despite all of their headwinds heading into election day.

This election reminded me once again that voters have an amazing ability to compartmentalize. It is fascinating to watch.
 
Teflon Don said:
So because I am always re-evaluating how I look at things, I will provide my own self analysis of what I got wrong and what I think I got right about last night's election

There was definitely a Kavanaugh effect in the Senate. So far every democrat that voted against Kavanaugh went down in flames. The only one to survive so far is Manchin and he voted to confirm. Jury still out on Tester. So I got that right

I also was right about this not being a BIG BLUE WAVE or TSUNAMI. Those on the left who now claim that nobody ever predicted it are not being honest.

This is what I got wrong. I mistakenly believed that the anger about Kavanaugh would extend outside of the Senate races and would bleed over into other House races. I thought that voters would punish democrats in general for the actions of Senate democrats. It was the only reason I thought the GOP had a chance of holding the House despite all of their headwinds heading into election day.

This election reminded me once again that voters have an amazing ability to compartmentalize. It is fascinating to watch.
Click to expand...

^ Absolutely wrong.

The following voted against Kavanaugh and won:

Brown
Cantwell
Cardin
Carper
Casey
Feinstein
Gillibrand
Heinrich
Hirono
Kaine
King
Klobuchar
Menendez
Murphy
Sanders
Smith
Stabenow
Tester
Warren
Whitehouse

The following voted for Kavanaugh and lost:

Donnelly
Heitkamp
McCaskill
 
christiefan915 said:
^ Absolutely wrong.

The following voted against Kavanaugh and won:

Brown
Cantwell
Cardin
Carper
Casey
Feinstein
Gillibrand
Heinrich
Hirono
Kaine
King
Klobuchar
Menendez
Murphy
Sanders
Smith
Stabenow
Tester
Warren
Whitehouse

The following voted for Kavanaugh and lost:

Donnelly
Heitkamp
McCaskill
Click to expand...

i think he's referring to close obviously contested races christie...
 
One other thing to note, is that while both sides have things to cheer about from Tuesday night, both sides need to do some soul searching.

Both sides were rejected by a large part of America. While I do like Trump's fighting style, it is obviously costing him in large areas of the country

Additionally both sides cost themselves winnable seats by going to hard to the left and right respectively. There were a number of GOP seats that Trump was instrumental in primarying and the primary winner eventually went on to lose. One example I can think of is Mark Sanford.

The left did the same thing. Ron Desantis was a pretty weak candidate for Governor. It was a very winnable seat for dems in Florida, but they blew it with a far left candidate. Same thing in Georgia.

The question is what lessons will each side learn from the election if any. Early signs from the left is that they learned nothing. They have spleens to vent and they are going to do it with endless investigations. They are infatuated almost obsessed with Trumps tax returns. The majority of the country really doesn't care about them at this point. But, the democrats are going to press ahead.

It seems we are in a state of politics the last two decades of voters going between parties thinking "well right now this one sucks least"
 
Teflon Don said:
I was. I thought it was fairly obvious, but I guess not. Yes, I would have thought that Elizabeth Warren would have lost her election for voting against Kavanaugh.
Click to expand...

I just don't see a "Kavanaugh effect" which to me means that most who voted against Kavanaugh would have lost the election because of it.
 
christiefan915 said:
I just don't see a "Kavanaugh effect" which to me means that most who voted against Kavanaugh would have lost the election because of it.
Click to expand...

And he stated quite clearly: "So far every democrat that voted against Kavanaugh went down in flames."

Now he wants to pretend that means something else,,,
 
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