Interest rates?

Probably, but they might wait till early next year to offet the next expected slump in the credit market.
 
I am just curious as to what people think. I think they should leave them alone.
 
It's all but a certainty that they will lower rates maybe twice before year end. they will be a half a point to two thirds lower by this time next year.
 
Jarod... I agree with you that they SHOULD leave them alone. But they won't. The moronic politicians in DC will put extreme pressure on the "independent" Fed to lower rates. I would not be surprised if they jump early, prior to the Sept meeting... especially if the Dow breaks under 13k again... which could happen tomorrow. My guess right now would be that they drop the Fed Funds rate by 50 bps to provide shock support for the market.

This coupled with the markets normal recovery will likely lead to "inflationary concerns" and then they will panic and rush to raise rates again early next year.

A rate cut typically takes 12-18 months to work its way into the economy, but the stock market will react quicker and they hope this will "ease the minds" of consumers to the point that they keep on spending.
 
OF course it is USC cause all you have are storm forecast it's never blue sky's in your world.
Facts, if any of you morons care to check matter.
Check how far home prices have corrected, deflation is started to be a factor again and it's time to lower.
 
you cut and pasted some bs
you don't know much about income
look up something on the median home price pre and post bubble and you'll see the answer grasshopper:clink:
 
You know when I was a kid I had a skewered Top, you would push down on the handle and it would spin and make a lot of noise....
 
the median price is now below trend growth, though not over you'll see home prices starting to grow again after a couple fed rate cuts.
 
uscitizen said:
Umm SF did toppers post make sense to you or is it just me ?
Click to expand...

Yes, I understood what he was trying to say. Within the housing market there is deflation and an interest rate decrease would spark that sector and help alleviate some of the problems.

That said, he is wrong to suggest that there is overall deflation. With energy prices remaining high and likely to go higher (not lower) there is inflation. With countries like China becoming net importers of grain for the first time, countries like Brazil using grain for fuel etc... grain prices will continue to drive food prices higher... not lower. With unemployment under 5%, that will continue to have an upward pressure on wages, not down.

The housing market is certainly big as if people continue losing value, they tend to perceive greater losses than truly exist and they tend to stop spending. So it is a balancing act the fed must maintain. They cannot let the housing market fall to the point consumers stop spending and they cannot help the housing market to the extent that inflation causes the consumers to stop spending.

ROCK-Fed-HARD PLACE
 
uscitizen said:
I posted census data which you refer to as bs.
The home and subprime debacle is far from over.
Click to expand...

The reason he is calling it bs is because it is skewed. You comparing peak wages (that were created in large part due to a false bubble in the economy) to wages today. A better comparison would be to look at 1997 data and compare to today. Not that it really matters too much, because median income is still near an all time high.
 
Superfreak said:
Yes, I understood what he was trying to say. Within the housing market there is deflation and an interest rate decrease would spark that sector and help alleviate some of the problems.

That said, he is wrong to suggest that there is overall deflation. With energy prices remaining high and likely to go higher (not lower) there is inflation. With countries like China becoming net importers of grain for the first time, countries like Brazil using grain for fuel etc... grain prices will continue to drive food prices higher... not lower. With unemployment under 5%, that will continue to have an upward pressure on wages, not down.

The housing market is certainly big as if people continue losing value, they tend to perceive greater losses than truly exist and they tend to stop spending. So it is a balancing act the fed must maintain. They cannot let the housing market fall to the point consumers stop spending and they cannot help the housing market to the extent that inflation causes the consumers to stop spending.

ROCK-Fed-HARD PLACE
Click to expand...

Agreed that is how I see it as well.
 
Superfreak said:
The reason he is calling it bs is because it is skewed. You comparing peak wages (that were created in large part due to a false bubble in the economy) to wages today. A better comparison would be to look at 1997 data and compare to today. Not that it really matters too much, because median income is still near an all time high.
Click to expand...

still near, but down slightly how many years after the bubble ?
 
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