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Iran’s ongoing political unrest is no longer just a domestic crisis. It is becoming a strategic problem for Moscow, directly affecting Russia’s energy position, its ability to manage sanctions pressure and, ultimately, its capacity to finance a prolonged war in Ukraine.
For Russia, Iran has long functioned as a sanctioned but stable partner, politically isolated, strategically aligned and economically constrained in ways that limited Tehran’s ability to pivot towards the West. That stability is now in question. Prolonged unrest threatens to turn a useful partner into a source of uncertainty at a moment when the Kremlin can least afford it.
A period of prolonged uncertainty
The protests, which began in late December, have continued despite severe repression. Human rights organisations and independent monitoring groups estimate that more than 5 000 people have been killed and tens of thousands detained. Internet access, satellite connections and even basic telephone services were repeatedly shut down for days at a time. Inside Iran, there is widespread belief that Russian technical and security assistance helped enable these nationwide communication blackouts, drawing on Moscow’s own experience with digital control, repression and surveillance.
Whether every element of this assistance can be independently verified matters less than its political effect. Protesters who oppose the Islamic Republic’s political system increasingly view Russia as an enabler of repression and a long-standing partner of the regime. This links Moscow directly to a deeply unpopular political order and raises the stakes of any future change in Tehran for Russian interests.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has relied on Iran as part of its sanctions-era survival strategy.
For Russia, Iran has long functioned as a sanctioned but stable partner, politically isolated, strategically aligned and economically constrained in ways that limited Tehran’s ability to pivot towards the West. That stability is now in question. Prolonged unrest threatens to turn a useful partner into a source of uncertainty at a moment when the Kremlin can least afford it.
A period of prolonged uncertainty
The protests, which began in late December, have continued despite severe repression. Human rights organisations and independent monitoring groups estimate that more than 5 000 people have been killed and tens of thousands detained. Internet access, satellite connections and even basic telephone services were repeatedly shut down for days at a time. Inside Iran, there is widespread belief that Russian technical and security assistance helped enable these nationwide communication blackouts, drawing on Moscow’s own experience with digital control, repression and surveillance.
Whether every element of this assistance can be independently verified matters less than its political effect. Protesters who oppose the Islamic Republic’s political system increasingly view Russia as an enabler of repression and a long-standing partner of the regime. This links Moscow directly to a deeply unpopular political order and raises the stakes of any future change in Tehran for Russian interests.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has relied on Iran as part of its sanctions-era survival strategy.