APP - Jarod can you explain these early voting numbers?

Teflon Don

Teflon Don

I'm back baby
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...a_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html#polls

Here are the RealClear Averages for North Carolina going back to the summer.

NY Times at one point had Hillary up +7 (tied today)


Here is CNNs analysis of the early vote in North Carolina

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html

Early black voting declined from 27.3 percent in 2012 to 22.2 percent in 2016. The early white vote increased from 67.4 percent in 2012 to 70.7 percent in 2016.

Now, what we keep hearing from the left is that there is this HUGE wave of hispanic support that will take Hillary over the top in North Carolina. OK. Let's look at that.

According to the North Carolina Board of Elections, there are 165,000 registered hispanics compared to 1.5 million black voters in North Carolina. Let's give 100% of the Hispanic and black vote to Hillary. Based on these numbers, Hillary is up 50,000 with Hispanics and down 75,000 with blacks which means she is net down 25,000 votes heading into election day with a core group

http://www.wral.com/groups-make-final-push-to-inspire-minority-voters/16206912/

http://vt.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=11-08-2016

So the question is where does Hillary pick up those lost votes? Not enough hispanics to make up the lost black vote.
 
The simple answer here is that IF HRC wins North Carolina she will do it by getting a larger percentage of white voters than Obama got in 2012.
 
Teflon Don said:
So in REALITY what do you think the real odds of that happening are?
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I just spent some time studying the polling on NC.
I am putting HRC at 51% chance of winning North Carolina.

While I understand your analysis, and agree what you say is troubling for Clintons chances in NC, the polling seems to give her a big enough boost to suggest the numbers are in her favor. Without your analysis I would have given her an almost 60% chance in NC.
 
Jarod said:
I just spent some time studying the polling on NC.
I am putting HRC at 51% chance of winning North Carolina.

While I understand your analysis, and agree what you say is troubling for Clintons chances in NC, the polling seems to give her a big enough boost to suggest the numbers are in her favor. Without your analysis I would have given her an almost 60% chance in NC.
Click to expand...

Well now you are getting closer to realizing that my prediction was in fact based on FACTS and REALITY and not what I wish would happen. I wish, Trump would win 50 states, but I know that is an impossibility.

One thing is for sure, and that is there is going to be some wrong polling this year. All of the media polling ABC, CBS, Bloomberg and NBC have this 4 point lead for Hillary. Other polls like LA Times, IBD and Rasmussen are Trump +2. That is a significant difference. Which one is right? Well, I suspect if you are a leftie you gravitate toward the ABC, CBS and NBC polls because you like them better. Conversely Trump supporters are probably partial to the other three.

In the lasts two weeks, I have focused mostly on state polls and not just the top line, but when possible, I have dug into the cross tabs and when you do that, there are extremely positive signs for Trump. For example, in poll after poll his share of the black vote is higher than most people would predict. Now will that bear out on election day? Don't know. I can only go by the polls.

Is Hillary the favorite? Yes. Does she have the advantage in the electoral college? Of course. Does that mean I think she will win? No. I still think Trump can and will win. In the end none of our predictions matter. Today voters will have their say.
 
Teflon Don said:
Well now you are getting closer to realizing that my prediction was in fact based on FACTS and REALITY and not what I wish would happen. I wish, Trump would win 50 states, but I know that is an impossibility.

One thing is for sure, and that is there is going to be some wrong polling this year. All of the media polling ABC, CBS, Bloomberg and NBC have this 4 point lead for Hillary. Other polls like LA Times, IBD and Rasmussen are Trump +2. That is a significant difference. Which one is right? Well, I suspect if you are a leftie you gravitate toward the ABC, CBS and NBC polls because you like them better. Conversely Trump supporters are probably partial to the other three.

In the lasts two weeks, I have focused mostly on state polls and not just the top line, but when possible, I have dug into the cross tabs and when you do that, there are extremely positive signs for Trump. For example, in poll after poll his share of the black vote is higher than most people would predict. Now will that bear out on election day? Don't know. I can only go by the polls.

Is Hillary the favorite? Yes. Does she have the advantage in the electoral college? Of course. Does that mean I think she will win? No. I still think Trump can and will win. In the end none of our predictions matter. Today voters will have their say.
Click to expand...


In a few short hours we will know...

I think you can find some areas where you can make a logical argument for one state or another, but you cant get to 270 doing that.
You should admit that logic says HRC wins, even if you don't like it.

Its important to separate what is from what you want. They honestly are often two different things and admitting that makes you stronger not weaker.
 
Jarod said:
In a few short hours we will know...

I think you can find some areas where you can make a logical argument for one state or another, but you cant get to 270 doing that.
You should admit that logic says HRC wins, even if you don't like it.

Its important to separate what is from what you want. They honestly are often two different things and admitting that makes you stronger not weaker.
Click to expand...

Back to North Carolina early voting we see that millennial voting is down 66%. Can Hillary win North Carolina that way? Given what we know about 2012

Also, we know that black vote is down in Florida as well.

So is it logical to infer that those numbers may not be isolated to North Carolina and Florida? I am not saying it is guaranteed, but you would have to admit it isn't an illogical inference based on facts correct?

One point so we can clear up any illusions you may have. I have "readied" myself for a Clinton presidency since 2012. Only a liar would say that they hasn't been running since then so we all always knew she would be the nominee. I also never had much faith in what the GOP establishment would nominate against her.

So my prediction that Trump will win is based on my reading of actual facts and not what I wish. When I see you post about that, I actually think you are projecting. I think it is Hillary supporters that will be faced with the highest level of depression should Trump win. None of you can even conceive of it despite any signs that point to the possibility.

As Grind has pointed out, you have taken Nate Silver's 70% chance and pushed it up to 100%. That is an incorrect reading of statistics. But, as you said, we shall see what we shall see.

Here are the things to look for once polls close

1) If it takes them a while to call Virginia after polls close that could spell trouble for Hillary
2) If it takes them a while to call Pennsylvania then same thing, or if they call Pennsylvania then it is game over
3) If Trump wins New Hampshire and North Carolina, we are in for a long night
4) If Hillary wins New Hampshire and North Carolina then turn out the lights on Trump
 
Teflon Don said:
Back to North Carolina early voting we see that millennial voting is down 66%. Can Hillary win North Carolina that way? Given what we know about 2012

Also, we know that black vote is down in Florida as well.

So is it logical to infer that those numbers may not be isolated to North Carolina and Florida? I am not saying it is guaranteed, but you would have to admit it isn't an illogical inference based on facts correct?

One point so we can clear up any illusions you may have. I have "readied" myself for a Clinton presidency since 2012. Only a liar would say that they hasn't been running since then so we all always knew she would be the nominee. I also never had much faith in what the GOP establishment would nominate against her.

So my prediction that Trump will win is based on my reading of actual facts and not what I wish. When I see you post about that, I actually think you are projecting. I think it is Hillary supporters that will be faced with the highest level of depression should Trump win. None of you can even conceive of it despite any signs that point to the possibility.

As Grind has pointed out, you have taken Nate Silver's 70% chance and pushed it up to 100%. That is an incorrect reading of statistics. But, as you said, we shall see what we shall see.

Here are the things to look for once polls close

1) If it takes them a while to call Virginia after polls close that could spell trouble for Hillary
2) If it takes them a while to call Pennsylvania then same thing, or if they call Pennsylvania then it is game over
3) If Trump wins New Hampshire and North Carolina, we are in for a long night
4) If Hillary wins New Hampshire and North Carolina then turn out the lights on Trump
Click to expand...

It is possible Trump will win, possible but unlikely.

I think Nate Silver's 70% is a little low, I say its closer to 80%, but he is much more of an expert than me, so take that with a grain of salt.

When I predict, I always know that the I cannot be 100% sure, but you are betting against an expert's 70% which is a dubious position to be in.

So you are betting on your own desire, plus against a 70% likelihood, that makes you look like a fool.
If you wanted VERY BADLY to be rich, would you predict a win against worse than 3 to 1 odds, maybe... and that is what gets people in trouble.

Your "logic" was designed to get the result you want... it should not work that way.

Come up with the likely data and logic first, then let it lead you to what will happen... leave the fact that you really badly hope for a certain result out of the equation.
 
Jarod said:
It is possible Trump will win, possible but unlikely.

I think Nate Silver's 70% is a little low, I say its closer to 80%, but he is much more of an expert than me, so take that with a grain of salt.

When I predict, I always know that the I cannot be 100% sure, but you are betting against an expert's 70% which is a dubious position to be in.

So you are betting on your own desire, plus against a 70% likelihood, that makes you look like a fool.
If you wanted VERY BADLY to be rich, would you predict a win against worse than 3 to 1 odds, maybe... and that is what gets people in trouble.

Your "logic" was designed to get the result you want... it should not work that way.

Come up with the likely data and logic first, then let it lead you to what will happen... leave the fact that you really badly hope for a certain result out of the equation.
Click to expand...

More often than not I have laid out my logic for why I believe Trump can and will win.

I believe that the polls have not modeled correctly for Trump. I believe that the polls have used a 2012 model for Clinton. My reason for believing this (backed up by Silver) is based on the fact that the polls have been all over the place.

It is not uncommon for the polls to be off by 3% in any given year. I believe that this is a very difficult year to poll.

Now can I be wrong? Yes. Of course. You just seem hell bent on me saying that I think Clinton is a lock to win and Trump has ZERO chance. I don't believe that. Is she favored? Yes. Never denied it.

I think I am more rooted in reality than you are.
 
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