APP - My Election Prediction

Teflon Don

Teflon Don

I'm back baby
I will make my prediction for the upcoming election. I reserve the right to alter this prediction as events change up until Election Day

Trump 273
Clinton 265


I believe Trump will not only win all of the Toss Ups in RCP, but he will also win Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan.

Here is why I believe Trump will win

1) He will win Ohio and Florida. Nobody in modern times has lost the Presidency if they take Ohio and Florida.
2) I believe he will win Pennsylvania for two reasons; the first is that he is pulling a high percentage of the black vote in PA which is bad for Clinton. Second he is running very competitively in Pittsburgh which is usually a blowout for democrats. This should mitigate Philadelphia and the Philly suburbs
3) By taking Ohio and Pennsylvania, Trump will bring in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota
4) Hillary is a quasi incumbent and can't break above 45-46% in the polls. Despite what the talking heads say that is a bad sign for an incumbent. People are still not sure about her and I believe they will break for Trump in the end despite his flaws
5) An overwhelming majority of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction and don't feel good about the economy. They want change. Trump represents change. Crooked ILLary represents more of the same.
6) An overwhelming majority of Americans think illegal immigration is a problem
7) There were 6 million Republican voters that sat on their hands in 2012 that I don't believe will be sitting on their hands in 2016. Had that 6 million turned out, Romney would be President
 
Great article that backs up my prediction


http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/10/the_visual_guide_to_disputing_media_polling.html

The article doesn't give Trump Minnesota like I do but does give him Colorado.

Ohio is key. It is laughable that the pundits are ignoring it. If Trump wins Ohio by more than five points, he is President elect

And I make a further prediction

When he wins you will not see lefties accept it graciously and they will whine like they did with Bush but this time instead of blaming the Supreme Court, they will blame the Russkies.
 
I will be stunned if CO goes for Trump, but heck stranger things have happened. California used to be a solid R vote....
 
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/31/us/elections/earlyvoters.html

More data that bolsters my position. Turnout of early voting with Crooked ILLary's core supporters is down, particularly in North Carolina. Things are not looking good for her.

Think about this from the data in the link

1) democrat early voting turnout is higher
2) black voting is down
3) millennial voting is down

With two key demographics down can we surmise that there are cross over votes for Trump? We will find out next Tuesday.
 
Based on today's recent RCP averages, Trump has moved to within 1.7 nationally and here are the battleground polls

Florida 44.5 45.5 Trump +1.0 Trending Up
Ohio 44.3 46.8 Trump +2.5
Virginia 47.0 42.3 Clinton +4.7 Trending Down
Colorado 43.7 41.3 Clinton +2.4 Trending Down
NC 46.3 47.0 Trump +0.7 Trending Up
Iowa 40.3 41.7 Trump +1.4
Nevada 44.3 44.8 Trump +0.5
Georgia 42.3 48.0 Trump +5.7 Trending Up
Wisconsin 47.0 41.3 Clinton +5.7
Michigan 47.0 40.0 Clinton +7.0
PA 47.2 41.2 Clinton +6.0 Trending Up
NH 46.0 41.3 Clinton +4.7
Maine 45.3 38.7 Clinton +6.6 Trending Down
Arizona 43.3 45.7 Trump +2.4 Trending Up

I still think Trump has a shot in Michigan and Wisconsin despite these numbers. Remember Hillary was up by 20 on Bernie during the primary and lost by 1 point. She is heading to Detroit on Friday. That is not the act of someone who thinks the state is safe.

I maintain my prediction
 
So as I analyze my prediction, I was pretty dead on with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Michigan and Minnesota are still out there. Even if they go to Hillary, I consider them a win because of how close they both still are.

I was wrong about CO, NH and NV

But, I was all over Florida and Ohio for a while. My most prescient prediction was that if Trump got over 5% in Ohio he would flip neighboring states and I was correct. What Grind and I kept trying to tell the JPP pundits is that elections are not static. If something is going on in one state, it is highly likely it is going on in another.

Part of me feels bad for the lefties who got this wrong. They allowed emotion to cloud their judgement and didn't look at the numbers. Even though I didn't vote for Romney in 2012 (didn't matter in my state) but I did want Obama to lose. I didn't look at the data.

I was not going to make that mistake this time. Every poll I looked at, I would go deep into the data and not look at the top line. Those cross tabs always guided my predictions. I posted links to back up my prediction but people chose to ignore it.

Let me be clear. My vote yesterday was not as much an affirmation of Donald Trump (I am still a Cruz guy), but I did not want Hillary in the White House. Period.
 
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