National Election - Trump 56.3% - Kamala 43.3% - Trump Surges To Betting Lead in Michigan and Wisconsin

volsrock1 said:
polymarket.com

Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election Predictions

2024 Presidential Election Predictions. Trust markets, not presidential polls. Live and accurate forecasts by the world's largest prediction market.
polymarket.com polymarket.com


Pennsylvania: Trump 56% - Kamala 44% - Michigan: Trump 52% - Kamala 48% - Wisconsin: Trump 51% - Kamala 49%
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A gambling website. :ROFLMAO: Btw volsie, in PA it's still Harris 48 - trump 47.

Whatever Polymarket Is, It’s Not the Future of News​

A betting market is gambling that financial incentives can be the ultimate arbiters of truth.

"If you’re a degenerate gambler then you probably already know that Polymarket is “predicting” that Trump will win the U.S. election. If you’re not a degenerate gambler, then you may not even know what Polymarket is.

The fast and simple version is that it’s a gambling website where users place bets on various events using crypto. The complicated answer is that it’s a website with VC funding, a newsletter, a comments section, an AI content generation deal, and a plan to pitch itself as the future of news. All of that is built around betting on stuff with crypto."

How Polymarket Works​

Users can purchase either a yes or no “share” as a way of placing a bet on an answer. Buying a share of “Trump will win the presidency” costs 49.8¢ right now. If he wins, the user gets the difference, up to a dollar, back. So a Trump win would earn you 50.2¢ if a user locked in at 49.8."

gizmodo.com

Whatever Polymarket Is, It's Not the Future of News

A betting market is gambling that financial incentives can be the ultimate arbiters of truth.
gizmodo.com gizmodo.com
 
christiefan915 said:
A gambling website. :ROFLMAO: Btw volsie, in PA it's still Harris 48 - trump 47.

Whatever Polymarket Is, It’s Not the Future of News​

A betting market is gambling that financial incentives can be the ultimate arbiters of truth.

"If you’re a degenerate gambler then you probably already know that Polymarket is “predicting” that Trump will win the U.S. election. If you’re not a degenerate gambler, then you may not even know what Polymarket is.

The fast and simple version is that it’s a gambling website where users place bets on various events using crypto. The complicated answer is that it’s a website with VC funding, a newsletter, a comments section, an AI content generation deal, and a plan to pitch itself as the future of news. All of that is built around betting on stuff with crypto."

How Polymarket Works​

Users can purchase either a yes or no “share” as a way of placing a bet on an answer. Buying a share of “Trump will win the presidency” costs 49.8¢ right now. If he wins, the user gets the difference, up to a dollar, back. So a Trump win would earn you 50.2¢ if a user locked in at 49.8."

gizmodo.com

Whatever Polymarket Is, It's Not the Future of News

A betting market is gambling that financial incentives can be the ultimate arbiters of truth.
gizmodo.com gizmodo.com
Click to expand...
as polling methodology goes, it is likely as good as any other
 
The fat lady, otherwise known as...KAMALA,.........is about to sing for us. Let's hope she can at least hold a tune. C,Mon kammy,.....how bout a course or two of somewhere over the rainbow. :)
 
christiefan915 said:
A gambling website. :ROFLMAO: Btw volsie, in PA it's still Harris 48 - trump 47.

Whatever Polymarket Is, It’s Not the Future of News​

A betting market is gambling that financial incentives can be the ultimate arbiters of truth.

"If you’re a degenerate gambler then you probably already know that Polymarket is “predicting” that Trump will win the U.S. election. If you’re not a degenerate gambler, then you may not even know what Polymarket is.

The fast and simple version is that it’s a gambling website where users place bets on various events using crypto. The complicated answer is that it’s a website with VC funding, a newsletter, a comments section, an AI content generation deal, and a plan to pitch itself as the future of news. All of that is built around betting on stuff with crypto."

How Polymarket Works​

Users can purchase either a yes or no “share” as a way of placing a bet on an answer. Buying a share of “Trump will win the presidency” costs 49.8¢ right now. If he wins, the user gets the difference, up to a dollar, back. So a Trump win would earn you 50.2¢ if a user locked in at 49.8."

gizmodo.com

Whatever Polymarket Is, It's Not the Future of News

A betting market is gambling that financial incentives can be the ultimate arbiters of truth.
gizmodo.com gizmodo.com
Click to expand...
I laughed pretty well when I read Volscrock's title. Talk about someone who's swirling the drain.
 
archives said:
What the f*ck is “polymarket?”
Click to expand...

The Polymarket Bubble: Everyone Is Betting on the US Election
Election betting is big, and people across the aisle are all in.


These aren’t actual polls—Polymarket is a decentralized betting market that operates similarly to sports betting apps like DraftKings, except bettors can make wagers on almost everything. This year, however, one of the most popular markets is the one predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.​


Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results​


markets.businessinsider.com

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

Prediction markets are quicker to respond to new events than polling, and bettors are often highly informed participants keeping close tabs on the race.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com


According to aggregates by Bookmakers Review, betting odds have accurately predicted several of the most recent elections, with 77 percent of the expected candidates winning over the last 35 years.

According to the SportsOddsHistory archive, you have to go back to 1976, when President Jimmy Carter won over Gerald Ford, for the last time betting odds called the election the wrong way—and even then, Carter's odds were only slightly better than Ford's at +100.

www.newsweek.com

How accurate are betting odds at predicting elections?

Betting odds can influence people's expectations about the result of the 2024 election, but how accurate have they been in the past?
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
Since the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz, offshore betting markets have trended toward Trump, according to Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. The primary driver: an influx of bets that raised the probability of Trump winning Pennsylvania.

On Thursday morning, for the first time since late July, bettors gave Trump a narrow chance of winning Wisconsin and Michigan, too. As of Thursday at 12 p.m. ET, bets on Polymarket gave Trump a 54.6% probability of winning the election, his best odds since early August. Presidential election betting can't be done legally in the U.S.

www.usatoday.com

What are Trump's odds of winning the election? Here's why they just got better

Bettors are making stronger guesses at who will win the 2024 election. Recent polling doesn't appear to be fueling their hunches about Donald Trump.
www.usatoday.com


According to aggregates by Bookmakers Review, betting odds have accurately predicted several of the most recent elections, with 77 percent of the expected candidates winning over the last 35 years.

According to the SportsOddsHistory archive, you have to go back to 1976, when President Jimmy Carter won over Gerald Ford, for the last time betting odds called the election the wrong way—and even then, Carter's odds were only slightly better than Ford's at +100.
 
volsrock1 said:
The Polymarket Bubble: Everyone Is Betting on the US Election
Election betting is big, and people across the aisle are all in.


These aren’t actual polls—Polymarket is a decentralized betting market that operates similarly to sports betting apps like DraftKings, except bettors can make wagers on almost everything. This year, however, one of the most popular markets is the one predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.​


Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results​


markets.businessinsider.com

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

Prediction markets are quicker to respond to new events than polling, and bettors are often highly informed participants keeping close tabs on the race.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com


According to aggregates by Bookmakers Review, betting odds have accurately predicted several of the most recent elections, with 77 percent of the expected candidates winning over the last 35 years.

According to the SportsOddsHistory archive, you have to go back to 1976, when President Jimmy Carter won over Gerald Ford, for the last time betting odds called the election the wrong way—and even then, Carter's odds were only slightly better than Ford's at +100.

www.newsweek.com

How accurate are betting odds at predicting elections?

Betting odds can influence people's expectations about the result of the 2024 election, but how accurate have they been in the past?
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
Click to expand...
You do know that the odds for those sites are determined by the betters, the line changes depending on the money wagered on each candidate.
 
archives said:
You do know that the odds for those sites are determined by the betters, the line changes depending on the money wagered on each candidate.
Click to expand...
10 minutes ago you ponder what the fuck this thing is, now you are trying to explain it to others/ :ROFLMAO:

can someone say POSER
 
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