Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
This race is going to be a lottery. Temps are expected to be around 52 deg F (11 C) at race time with a 10 mph wind from the north. No rain is expected. Conventional wisdom is that the race will finish in a field sprint with native son Mark Cavendish favored to win. I don't think that's going to happen. The terrain and distance do not favor sprintors. This will be a race of attrition with the fittest athlete winning. Attacks will come early and often, particularly around Box Hill, will blow the peloton apart. Particularly on the narrow roads they'll be riding on. As the peloton blows apart so will team designations and affiliations, particularly with no radio communications allowed. That means as the race heads towards the later stages it will be every man for himself. This does not favor sprinters who require team mates to lead them out. They'll be the first to go when the attacks come fast and furious....and they will. So don't expect to see a field sprint at the finish line. So this type of format favors GC and Classics riders with solid time trialing skills. For a single day event like this luck plays a huge rule as does who is the strongest/fitest athlete so it's impossible to predict who will win but here are my reviews of the top rated teams in order of strength and who on that team has the best odds of winning or finnishing on the prodium. The strongest teams in order are:
#1. UK - Cavendish is the one conventional wisdom favors to win but he'll get blown off the back the 5th or 6th time they hit Box Hill. Expect Cavendish to hang in the pack and hope for a field sprint. Wiggins and Frome have the best odds of winning for the UK. Expect Wiggins to work for Frome as a pay back for his help in the TdF but if the pack gets blown apart, bet on Wiggins.
#2. Belgium - Tom Boonen is a strong GC rider and time trialist and Pilipe Gilbert is arguably the best classics rider in the world. They have an outstanding supporting cast. Gilbert is my favorite to win Gold as the format, terrain and conditions favor his skills and Boonen could also win it all or finish on the podium.
#3. Australia - Could this be the last hurah for Stewart O'Grady? Expet the Aussies to lead the attacks and to be involved in any break aways. It's obvious from their team make up that tactically the men from Oz don't expect a field sprint finish. Evens, Rogers and O'Grady are all capable of winning it all. With narrow rough technical roads, Box Hill and cool weather condidtions favor clasics riders like Rogers and O'Grady and O'Grady is tougher than asbestos under shorts. Wouldn't be surprized to see him on the podium.
#4. Italy - Italy is throwing all their eggs in one basket but what an egg it is. Nibali finished second in the TdF and has an entire team of outstanding classics riders supporting him. These could be the guys to blow the field apart. Nibali's my #2 favorite to win gold.
#5. USA - Bring out the young guns! With the exception of 40 y.o. Chris Horner the entire US team is under 30 years of age with Phinney and Van Garderen being 22 and 24 respectively. Van Garderen opened a lot of eyes in the TdF and left a lot of people feeling that he didn't show his true potential having to support Cadel Evans. Taylor Phinney is only 22 years old, is a world class track rider and skipped the TdF to focus on the Olympics. It's obvious from the US Teams make up they won't be using team sprint tactics either. Expect Tee Jay to attack viciously in the Box Hill region but watch out for Phinney going off the front. Either could end up on the podium.
Dark Horses.
Fabian Cancellaria from Switzerland has the talent to go off the front and go all the way. If he does, kiss the sprinters good bye. He's probably the best time trialist in the field and if he's having a good day tomorow a lot of riders will be suffering.
Peter Sagan. This young man will have an impact on the race before all is said and done. Will it be enough to earn a medal? Could be, as he's as feared right now as Cavendish and he's a better all around cyclist than Cavendish. Sagan is my #3 favorite to win gold.
So here are my top 3 favorites in the road race.
#1 Gilbert
#2 Nibali
#3 Sagan
Vegas has:
#1. Cavendish
#2. Sagan
#3. Gilbert
Personally I'll be rooting for Taylor Phinney. He's an amazing talent who probably would be racing track events had it not been for the asinine changes which eliminated the single rider track events.
#1. UK - Cavendish is the one conventional wisdom favors to win but he'll get blown off the back the 5th or 6th time they hit Box Hill. Expect Cavendish to hang in the pack and hope for a field sprint. Wiggins and Frome have the best odds of winning for the UK. Expect Wiggins to work for Frome as a pay back for his help in the TdF but if the pack gets blown apart, bet on Wiggins.
#2. Belgium - Tom Boonen is a strong GC rider and time trialist and Pilipe Gilbert is arguably the best classics rider in the world. They have an outstanding supporting cast. Gilbert is my favorite to win Gold as the format, terrain and conditions favor his skills and Boonen could also win it all or finish on the podium.
#3. Australia - Could this be the last hurah for Stewart O'Grady? Expet the Aussies to lead the attacks and to be involved in any break aways. It's obvious from their team make up that tactically the men from Oz don't expect a field sprint finish. Evens, Rogers and O'Grady are all capable of winning it all. With narrow rough technical roads, Box Hill and cool weather condidtions favor clasics riders like Rogers and O'Grady and O'Grady is tougher than asbestos under shorts. Wouldn't be surprized to see him on the podium.
#4. Italy - Italy is throwing all their eggs in one basket but what an egg it is. Nibali finished second in the TdF and has an entire team of outstanding classics riders supporting him. These could be the guys to blow the field apart. Nibali's my #2 favorite to win gold.
#5. USA - Bring out the young guns! With the exception of 40 y.o. Chris Horner the entire US team is under 30 years of age with Phinney and Van Garderen being 22 and 24 respectively. Van Garderen opened a lot of eyes in the TdF and left a lot of people feeling that he didn't show his true potential having to support Cadel Evans. Taylor Phinney is only 22 years old, is a world class track rider and skipped the TdF to focus on the Olympics. It's obvious from the US Teams make up they won't be using team sprint tactics either. Expect Tee Jay to attack viciously in the Box Hill region but watch out for Phinney going off the front. Either could end up on the podium.
Dark Horses.
Fabian Cancellaria from Switzerland has the talent to go off the front and go all the way. If he does, kiss the sprinters good bye. He's probably the best time trialist in the field and if he's having a good day tomorow a lot of riders will be suffering.
Peter Sagan. This young man will have an impact on the race before all is said and done. Will it be enough to earn a medal? Could be, as he's as feared right now as Cavendish and he's a better all around cyclist than Cavendish. Sagan is my #3 favorite to win gold.
So here are my top 3 favorites in the road race.
#1 Gilbert
#2 Nibali
#3 Sagan
Vegas has:
#1. Cavendish
#2. Sagan
#3. Gilbert
Personally I'll be rooting for Taylor Phinney. He's an amazing talent who probably would be racing track events had it not been for the asinine changes which eliminated the single rider track events.