Past Performance is not Indicative of Future Earnings...

Damocles

Damocles

Accedo!
Staff member
http://www.ijreview.com/2014/02/114510-stock-market-telling-us-crash/

Chart compares DJIA now with DJIA just before 1929 crash...

1929.png
 
I once closed a truck line. Even after the closure the stocks rose and the company took the profits and split them up to their own satisfaction. So much for the common ignorance of the common investor classes.

Petula
 
Conservatives, on here, and friends of mine have been predicting market doom every few months for 5 years. I guess the crash at the end of the GWB administration has caused PTSD or something. If they keep it up, the will finally be right when the market eventually turns bear, but nobody will answer the question I keep asking, "are you going to put your money where your mouth is and get out of the market?"

A family member of mine did, about 4.5 years ago, and after I pointe out to him a few months ago that he has missed out on a 130% increase, he is recently back in. I kinda think he missed it and is in for a few flat if not slightly down years, but heck, who am I.

So I keep asking, if you are a Conservative, are you pulling money out, or have you already done that? Is your money in a mattress?
 
Jarod said:
Conservatives, on here, and friends of mine have been predicting market doom every few months for 5 years. I guess the crash at the end of the GWB administration has caused PTSD or something. If they keep it up, the will finally be right when the market eventually turns bear, but nobody will answer the question I keep asking, "are you going to put your money where your mouth is and get out of the market?"

A family member of mine did, about 4.5 years ago, and after I pointe out to him a few months ago that he has missed out on a 130% increase, he is recently back in. I kinda think he missed it and is in for a few flat if not slightly down years, but heck, who am I.

So I keep asking, if you are a Conservative, are you pulling money out, or have you already done that? Is your money in a mattress?
Click to expand...

Really Garud? Every few months? Or is it every few months that you make a claim that someone 'you know' has done so?
 
Jarod said:
Conservatives, on here, and friends of mine have been predicting market doom every few months for 5 years. I guess the crash at the end of the GWB administration has caused PTSD or something. If they keep it up, the will finally be right when the market eventually turns bear, but nobody will answer the question I keep asking, "are you going to put your money where your mouth is and get out of the market?"

A family member of mine did, about 4.5 years ago, and after I pointe out to him a few months ago that he has missed out on a 130% increase, he is recently back in. I kinda think he missed it and is in for a few flat if not slightly down years, but heck, who am I.

So I keep asking, if you are a Conservative, are you pulling money out, or have you already done that? Is your money in a mattress?
Click to expand...

Well, I am a trader, that being said, I have long money and money I actively trade. Right now, my long money is in cash. I was long for most of 2013, however I did take a few short positions when it looked like it might turn down. Got a couple right, got a couple wrong.

I don't try to time the market, I always let price be my guide. Right now I am looking for S&P to break through 1820 before I think of putting anymore long money back to work. If you have been long since the high of 1850, you have been flat at best. I have made a few bucks with my various trades.

To each their own. If you want to try to time the market, good luck.
 
Jarod said:
I haven't done a study on how often, but its pretty often.
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Well, I am the only one who actively discusses stocks. you only pop your head on here during a 300 point up day implying it is all due to Obama, so what you say doesn't really matter to me
 
I also remember how every summer the anxiety about the end of the EU and the Euro comes up and how that's going to destroy our market.

There is one thread out there where it was claimed that the EU break up was already a done deal, I just was not smart enough to see it yet.
 
NOTE - For future notice, if you are not intelligent enough to figure it out... When I say something like "every few months" that is not information based on a scientific study or meant to be a particularly precise measure of time. If you would like to pick that out to try to avoid the substance of my point, it makes you look silly. When I say something vague like that to describe a time period, it could mean 5 or 6 months or 2 or 3 months. Or some other amount of months.

Ok resume your attempts at distracting form the more relevant point.
 
Jarod said:
NOTE - For future notice, if you are not intelligent enough to figure it out... When I say something like "every few months" that is not information based on a scientific study or meant to be a particularly precise measure of time. If you would like to pick that out to try to avoid the substance of my point, it makes you look silly. When I say something vague like that to describe a time period, it could mean 5 or 6 months or 2 or 3 months. Or some other amount of months.

Ok resume your attempts at distracting form the more relevant point.
Click to expand...


What is the relevant point? Do you think the market has another 20% rise in it this year? Or do you think it is heading for a correction at some point?

Hey, I remember in 1999 when PE ratios didn't matter and the stock market only went up. I also remember when real estate could NEVER go down. And remember what a great deal government sponsored student loans were?

Yeah, bring on nirvana
 
Damocles said:
http://www.ijreview.com/2014/02/114510-stock-market-telling-us-crash/

Chart compares DJIA now with DJIA just before 1929 crash...

1929.png
Click to expand...
It's interesting but does it mean anything? Remember correlation does not equal causation and there are significantly different factors today than in 1929, such as, purchasing stock on margin and a predipitate drop in the purchasing of consumer goods tied to the over production of consumer goods that occurred in 1929. Factors that are not really present today. The real question is this comparing apples to apples?
 
Teflon Don said:
What is the relevant point? Do you think the market has another 20% rise in it this year? Or do you think it is heading for a correction at some point?

Hey, I remember in 1999 when PE ratios didn't matter and the stock market only went up. I also remember when real estate could NEVER go down. And remember what a great deal government sponsored student loans were?

Yeah, bring on nirvana
Click to expand...

My point is that I don't know. I thought 4 years ago that a 50% increase over the coming few* years was reasonable. I guess if I had to say, the year ahead will be fairly* flat.

My point is that I find the correlation between Conservative and prediction of coming doom to be rather interesting. I personally think* it has to do with shock that the end of Bush's 8 years did end in Doom, and that Obama has been in office for five years of market "nirvana".

I know that a correction will occur, maybe sooner than later, maybe not. Its the way they seem to keep predicting it with rampant fervor.

*Please note these are words that are not used to express any level of certainty and do indicate an opinion that is not scientific fact.
 
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Jarod said:
NOTE - For future notice, if you are not intelligent enough to figure it out... When I say something like "every few months" that is not information based on a scientific study or meant to be a particularly precise measure of time. If you would like to pick that out to try to avoid the substance of my point, it makes you look silly. When I say something vague like that to describe a time period, it could mean 5 or 6 months or 2 or 3 months. Or some other amount of months.

Ok resume your attempts at distracting form the more relevant point.
Click to expand...

'yeah... like, you know, it could mean that every few months I meant like every few years and like maybe I meant every few days but really could have meant 4.2 months, but really I am just rambling and hoping that people will think I am smart for trying feebly to mock superfreak'
 
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