Beijing and allies erode the peace in East Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and East Asia
Anders Corr
December 9, 2021
Epoch Times News Analysis
mp3Audio PDF
The news is coming fast and hard of peace and stability eroding globally in a manner that benefits Beijing’s attempts at global destabilization to make a path for its increasing control.
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seeks to break apart the American-led order, including that of the United Nations that Washington developed after World War II, Beijing makes the destabilized countries—previously free, sovereign, and independent—more easily digestible into a new and emerging Chinese-led global order.
The CCP will repurpose, not destroy, the U.N. bureaucracy while disposing of its ideals of freedom, diversity, and democracy. But first it needs to destabilize and reorient the global geography of sovereign states that America spearheaded and protected from the 1940s to the present.
Beijing’s destabilization of international politics depends upon coordinated action by its allies.
China’s ally Russia is building troops opposite Ukraine for an invasion. Those troops appear to be growing toward a massive 175,000-person army. This destabilization of East Europe distracts some of the global public’s attention from Beijing, which is being freed to more easily attack Taiwan. Analysts predict that Putin could be ready for an invasion by early 2022, but the West is so frequently surprised by authoritarian powers, including Putin’s invasion of Crimea, that we should prepare ourselves for an even earlier surprise attack.
Iran and its allies, including most importantly China, are stronger relative to the United States and allies than they were in 2015 when the first Iran nuclear non-proliferation pact was agreed. Since then, Beijing increased its influence in Tehran, including by purchasing 700,000 barrels of Iranian oil in 2018 when Washington reimposed sanctions. A friend in need is a friend indeed.
Expect the terms of future Iranian nuclear negotiations to be worse for America and allies, which could lead to no new agreement, or tip Israel into preemptive war against Iran to stop it going nuclear. An Iranian-Israeli war would likely pull in the United States and Saudi Arabia, a major distraction for not only America but our allies. Iran, one of the biggest supporters of global terrorism, would likely increase this asymmetric strategy of terrorism, where it has an advantage, and the Chinese regime could then more easily attack Taiwan without serious repercussions due to the geopolitical confusion that ensues.
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is resisting U.S. and South Korean calls for a formal end to the Korean War, has collapsed nuclear talks with the United States, and refused talks with the South. The latter’s Roman Catholic leader, Moon Jae-in, is so desperate for peace that he is turning to Pope Francis for help. The chances of the Pope changing Pyongyang, which relentlessly persecutes believers and is ruled by a family that likens itself to gods, is worse than zero. A Papal intervention could make things worse, for example, by Kim using a visit to burnish North Korea’s image.
The CCP is leading this rogue’s gallery of nations and directly threatening war against democratic Taiwan. Xi Jinping is openly planning to take control of the island democracy during his tenure as General Secretary of the CCP. Meanwhile, new Chinese national security and data laws are being implemented that have extraterritorial effect, meaning that laws made in Beijing apply in New York City, for example.
Case in point: the Wall Street Journal got a warning on Dec. 5 from the Hong Kong government that the newspaper was in violation of the National Security Law for an article the Journal wrote about, regarding the breakdown of what little democracy Hong Kong had after Beijing’s takeover.
But the Chinese military is already operating far afield from East Asia, and seeks new military bases in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Middle East and Equatorial Guinea on the Atlantic coast of Africa. These will augment its already-existing base in Djibouti. The UAE halted construction when the United States discovered it and confronted the UAE government, but Equatorial Guinea is resisting similar diplomatic overtures. The CCP’s plans for an Atlantic naval base in Equatorial Guinea continue.
A Chinese military base on Africa’s east coast will put it within striking distance of the American East Coast, increasing pressure on Washington to buckle to China’s military threats in the future. Expect Beijing to seek other military bases, overt and covert, in the 100 commercial ports it has already constructed around Africa. These are a threat to global shipping through the Mediterranean and around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, and will put Beijing in greater control of the oil and shipping resources of the Middle East.
The magnitude, quantity, and speed of geopolitical change is so enormous due to Beijing’s increased economic power, diplomatic assertiveness, and military aggression, that the threat of war is increasing substantially. America and its former world order, wrongly thought to be unipolar after the breakup of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, is at a moment of truth.
We must draw red lines and accept the increased risk of war with not only China, but its allies Russia, Iran, and North Korea—or give into a slow erosion of American and allied democratic power globally. Without the protection of the United States, democracy, freedom, peace, and civilizational diversity could soon be a thing of the past. This dire truth must now be confronted. There is no time to lose, because time is on Beijing’s side, and Beijing’s side is that of totalitarianism.
Anders Corr has a bachelor’s/master’s in political science from Yale University (2001) and a doctorate in government from Harvard University (2008). He is a principal at Corr Analytics Inc., publisher of the Journal of Political Risk, and has conducted extensive research in North America, Europe, and Asia. His latest books are “The Concentration of Power: Institutionalization, Hierarchy, and Hegemony” (2021) and “Great Powers, Grand Strategies: the New Game in the South China Sea” (2018).
https://www.theepochtimes.com/pax-am...a_4142821.html
Anders Corr
December 9, 2021
Epoch Times News Analysis
mp3Audio PDF
The news is coming fast and hard of peace and stability eroding globally in a manner that benefits Beijing’s attempts at global destabilization to make a path for its increasing control.
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seeks to break apart the American-led order, including that of the United Nations that Washington developed after World War II, Beijing makes the destabilized countries—previously free, sovereign, and independent—more easily digestible into a new and emerging Chinese-led global order.
The CCP will repurpose, not destroy, the U.N. bureaucracy while disposing of its ideals of freedom, diversity, and democracy. But first it needs to destabilize and reorient the global geography of sovereign states that America spearheaded and protected from the 1940s to the present.
Beijing’s destabilization of international politics depends upon coordinated action by its allies.
China’s ally Russia is building troops opposite Ukraine for an invasion. Those troops appear to be growing toward a massive 175,000-person army. This destabilization of East Europe distracts some of the global public’s attention from Beijing, which is being freed to more easily attack Taiwan. Analysts predict that Putin could be ready for an invasion by early 2022, but the West is so frequently surprised by authoritarian powers, including Putin’s invasion of Crimea, that we should prepare ourselves for an even earlier surprise attack.
Iran and its allies, including most importantly China, are stronger relative to the United States and allies than they were in 2015 when the first Iran nuclear non-proliferation pact was agreed. Since then, Beijing increased its influence in Tehran, including by purchasing 700,000 barrels of Iranian oil in 2018 when Washington reimposed sanctions. A friend in need is a friend indeed.
Expect the terms of future Iranian nuclear negotiations to be worse for America and allies, which could lead to no new agreement, or tip Israel into preemptive war against Iran to stop it going nuclear. An Iranian-Israeli war would likely pull in the United States and Saudi Arabia, a major distraction for not only America but our allies. Iran, one of the biggest supporters of global terrorism, would likely increase this asymmetric strategy of terrorism, where it has an advantage, and the Chinese regime could then more easily attack Taiwan without serious repercussions due to the geopolitical confusion that ensues.
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is resisting U.S. and South Korean calls for a formal end to the Korean War, has collapsed nuclear talks with the United States, and refused talks with the South. The latter’s Roman Catholic leader, Moon Jae-in, is so desperate for peace that he is turning to Pope Francis for help. The chances of the Pope changing Pyongyang, which relentlessly persecutes believers and is ruled by a family that likens itself to gods, is worse than zero. A Papal intervention could make things worse, for example, by Kim using a visit to burnish North Korea’s image.
The CCP is leading this rogue’s gallery of nations and directly threatening war against democratic Taiwan. Xi Jinping is openly planning to take control of the island democracy during his tenure as General Secretary of the CCP. Meanwhile, new Chinese national security and data laws are being implemented that have extraterritorial effect, meaning that laws made in Beijing apply in New York City, for example.
Case in point: the Wall Street Journal got a warning on Dec. 5 from the Hong Kong government that the newspaper was in violation of the National Security Law for an article the Journal wrote about, regarding the breakdown of what little democracy Hong Kong had after Beijing’s takeover.
But the Chinese military is already operating far afield from East Asia, and seeks new military bases in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Middle East and Equatorial Guinea on the Atlantic coast of Africa. These will augment its already-existing base in Djibouti. The UAE halted construction when the United States discovered it and confronted the UAE government, but Equatorial Guinea is resisting similar diplomatic overtures. The CCP’s plans for an Atlantic naval base in Equatorial Guinea continue.
A Chinese military base on Africa’s east coast will put it within striking distance of the American East Coast, increasing pressure on Washington to buckle to China’s military threats in the future. Expect Beijing to seek other military bases, overt and covert, in the 100 commercial ports it has already constructed around Africa. These are a threat to global shipping through the Mediterranean and around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, and will put Beijing in greater control of the oil and shipping resources of the Middle East.
The magnitude, quantity, and speed of geopolitical change is so enormous due to Beijing’s increased economic power, diplomatic assertiveness, and military aggression, that the threat of war is increasing substantially. America and its former world order, wrongly thought to be unipolar after the breakup of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, is at a moment of truth.
We must draw red lines and accept the increased risk of war with not only China, but its allies Russia, Iran, and North Korea—or give into a slow erosion of American and allied democratic power globally. Without the protection of the United States, democracy, freedom, peace, and civilizational diversity could soon be a thing of the past. This dire truth must now be confronted. There is no time to lose, because time is on Beijing’s side, and Beijing’s side is that of totalitarianism.
Anders Corr has a bachelor’s/master’s in political science from Yale University (2001) and a doctorate in government from Harvard University (2008). He is a principal at Corr Analytics Inc., publisher of the Journal of Political Risk, and has conducted extensive research in North America, Europe, and Asia. His latest books are “The Concentration of Power: Institutionalization, Hierarchy, and Hegemony” (2021) and “Great Powers, Grand Strategies: the New Game in the South China Sea” (2018).
https://www.theepochtimes.com/pax-am...a_4142821.html