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Prediction Markets Tell a Different Story From the Polls
Supporters say the platforms are better at predicting the election. But questions have arisen about recent big bets, as they show a big lead for Donald Trump.
Where things stand on the prediction markets: Kalshi, which recently won court approval to allow election betting in the country for the first time, has the odds of Trump winning at 55 percent, versus 45 percent for Harris. Polymarket has the race at 56 to 44, while PredictIt shows them at 54 to 49.
Contrast those results with most polls: The Times’s national poll tracker shows Harris ahead 50 to 47.
Prediction Markets Tell a Different Story From the Polls
Supporters say the platforms are better at predicting the election. But questions have arisen about recent big bets, as they show a big lead for Donald Trump.