Predictions

T

Tranquillus in Exile

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This paper focuses on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow.

The analysis comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000; GDP would be 3.6% smaller; average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker; house prices would be hit, and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain.

George Osborne , Chancellor of the Exchequer, May 2016.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf


All this was forecast to happen immediately following the referendum if people voted the wrong way. Well, they did - and it didn't. :)
 
It did not show itself yet because it still was not enacted. The other British countries are talking about leaving. Still, a long way to go to determine the consequences. If Boris gets out by November, we will get the real results starting then.
 
Gonzomin said:
It did not show itself yet because it still was not enacted.
Click to expand...

It was a forecast for 2016-2018. "This paper focuses on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow." There was a separate forecast for what would follow actually leaving (even worse, naturally).

I wouldn't like to think this was a cynical deception. Chancellor Osborne probably believed it, like many others. But nothing remotely like that happened.

May I ask a question? Most liberals evidently feel quite strongly that Britain should remain in the EU. Why?
 
Boris will fail.

He has no majority.

A hard Brexit will cause a recession, and that is why there is no majority support for that in the HOC, hence Johnson will not get his hard Brexit, and be voted out as soon as he forces the issue.
 
The Sunday Times newspaper said the “Boris bounce” had pushed support for Johnson’s Conservatives to 31%, up six percentage points from the previous poll, while Labour was on 21%, up two points.

The newspaper said the poll by YouGov could fuel speculation that Johnson, who faces a Brexit deadlock in Britain’s parliament, will call an early election.

YouGov questioned 1,697 adults on July 25 and 26.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...ervatives-surge-in-opinion-poll-idUKKCN1UM0NJ
 
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