Diogenes
1 account to rule them all
What happens when society-wide preference falsification unwinds, from the work of @timurkuran, as extrapolated by Professor Claude Steele:
I doubt any JPP leftist can comprehend this, but here goes ...
Preference falsification is the act of misrepresenting a preference under perceived public pressure. It involves the selection of a publicly expressed preference that differs from the underlying privately held preference. People frequently convey to each other preferences that differ from what they would communicate privately under credible cover of anonymity.
en.wikipedia.org
Preference falsification occurs when people publicly express preferences that differ from their private beliefs due to social, political, or economic pressures.
When preference falsification unwinds suddenly, it may create a mass cascading effect that can rapidly transform an entire society.
Here's how such a process might unfold:
Stage 1 - Hidden Tensions
Initially, many individuals privately hold beliefs that contradict the official or socially acceptable position. They keep these views private because expressing them carries real costs - social ostracism, job loss, or worse. This creates a gap between private and public preferences that can persist for years or decades.
Stage 2 - Initial Cracks
Some triggering event reduces the cost of expressing private preferences. This could be a political reform, an economic crisis, or simply a brave individual who demonstrates that dissent is possible. If this person isn't immediately punished, it signals to others that the cost of truth-telling may have decreased.
Stage 3 - The Cascade
Once enough people begin expressing their true preferences, a self-reinforcing cycle begins: Each person who speaks out makes it safer for others to do the same. The perceived cost of dissent drops rapidly. People update their beliefs about how many others share their private views.
This creates a multiplier effect where small initial changes can trigger massive shifts.
Stage 4 - System Transformation
The rapid revelation of true preferences often leads to a collapse of existing institutions and even political hierarchies that rely on forced consensus.
Emergence of new social and political arrangements. Psychological shock as people realize how many others privately opposed the system.
A relatively recent historic example is the fall of communist regimes in Eastern Europe circa 1989. For decades, most citizens in these countries publicly supported the system. When protesters in Poland and Hungary began reform movements, it triggered a cascade that revealed a groundswell of private level of opposition, leading to the rapid collapse of communist governments across the region.
The key insight appears to be that social systems can outwardly appear stable while masking enormous underlying tensions.
When preference falsification unwinds, change may not be gradual - it can be sudden and transformative.
An existing societal system can maintain a façade of stability until it suddenly transforms into something entirely different.
x.com
I doubt any JPP leftist can comprehend this, but here goes ...
Preference falsification is the act of misrepresenting a preference under perceived public pressure. It involves the selection of a publicly expressed preference that differs from the underlying privately held preference. People frequently convey to each other preferences that differ from what they would communicate privately under credible cover of anonymity.
Preference falsification - Wikipedia
Preference falsification occurs when people publicly express preferences that differ from their private beliefs due to social, political, or economic pressures.
When preference falsification unwinds suddenly, it may create a mass cascading effect that can rapidly transform an entire society.
Here's how such a process might unfold:
Stage 1 - Hidden Tensions
Initially, many individuals privately hold beliefs that contradict the official or socially acceptable position. They keep these views private because expressing them carries real costs - social ostracism, job loss, or worse. This creates a gap between private and public preferences that can persist for years or decades.
Stage 2 - Initial Cracks
Some triggering event reduces the cost of expressing private preferences. This could be a political reform, an economic crisis, or simply a brave individual who demonstrates that dissent is possible. If this person isn't immediately punished, it signals to others that the cost of truth-telling may have decreased.
Stage 3 - The Cascade
Once enough people begin expressing their true preferences, a self-reinforcing cycle begins: Each person who speaks out makes it safer for others to do the same. The perceived cost of dissent drops rapidly. People update their beliefs about how many others share their private views.
This creates a multiplier effect where small initial changes can trigger massive shifts.
Stage 4 - System Transformation
The rapid revelation of true preferences often leads to a collapse of existing institutions and even political hierarchies that rely on forced consensus.
Emergence of new social and political arrangements. Psychological shock as people realize how many others privately opposed the system.
A relatively recent historic example is the fall of communist regimes in Eastern Europe circa 1989. For decades, most citizens in these countries publicly supported the system. When protesters in Poland and Hungary began reform movements, it triggered a cascade that revealed a groundswell of private level of opposition, leading to the rapid collapse of communist governments across the region.
The key insight appears to be that social systems can outwardly appear stable while masking enormous underlying tensions.
When preference falsification unwinds, change may not be gradual - it can be sudden and transformative.
An existing societal system can maintain a façade of stability until it suddenly transforms into something entirely different.
x.com
x.com