Put up or shut up: West Virginia Senate Race

Who will win West Virginia Senate Race

  • Total voters
    5
Teflon Don

Teflon Don

I'm back baby
This one is the most tricky of the lot for me to predict

Manchin is fairly popular but Trump is more popular. West Virginia is extremely red. I think Manchin got too cute with his Kavanaugh vote. His polls have been trending down since August. RCP average has him up by 9 but they haven't posted any of the recent polls

The big tell for me is that in the most recent poll Manchin is only at 41% with a 1 point lead. An incumbent like Manchin polling under 50% is devastating, let alone polling at 41%. They should not be undecided about Manchin at this point which means they are trying to figure out if Morrissey is the guy. Undecideds almost always break for the challenger

Even though this is technically a toss up, I am putting up and saying Manchin will lose this race
 
The average coal miner earned $68,500 in 2013, according to the West Virginia Coal Association. Poverty remains deeply entrenched in the state.

Employment in mining has declined from its peak of 130,457 in 1940, to 19,427 in 2013, according to association statistics.
 
kudzu said:
The average coal miner earned $68,500 in 2013, according to the West Virginia Coal Association. Poverty remains deeply entrenched in the state.

Employment in mining has declined from its peak of 130,457 in 1940, to 19,427 in 2013, according to association statistics.
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So you think Manchin will win? Did you vote
 
im going to say manchin because apparently west virginia loves him so much. The only thing I can see that would really turn it is Trump going there and asking people to vote for his candidate to give him the majority he needs and to just vote him out after and give the seat back to manchin if it doesnt work out.
 
tsuke said:
im going to say manchin because apparently west virginia loves him so much. The only thing I can see that would really turn it is Trump going there and asking people to vote for his candidate to give him the majority he needs and to just vote him out after and give the seat back to manchin if it doesnt work out.
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Look at the trend in these polls. This is since August before the Kavanaugh mess

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/west-virginia/

Manchin is at 41%. And look how the undecideds have increased. That is brutal for an incumbent of Manchin's stature in the state. I would like to see one more poll and this is the one Senate seat I could be wrong about, but I don't think I am. I think the trend is away from Manchin right now
 
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