Alik Bahshi
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Alik Bakhshi
Putin in the multicolored Syrian revolution
Putin in the multicolored Syrian revolution
The Arab revolution that reached Syria was the detonator of a mine laid by France and Great Britain after the First World War. Then, like a pack of wolves, the victorious countries tore apart the defeated body of the Ottoman Empire, dividing the territories among themselves, without taking into account the ethnic and religious composition of the population. As a result, the Middle East was divided into many Arab states, two of which, namely Syria and Iraq, found themselves in the most difficult situation. The fact is that three large, completely different ethnic groups of the population fell within the borders of these countries, artificially created by the colonial powers: Arabs, Kurds and Turks or Turkmens, which is the same thing. Naturally, and also taking into account the historical traditions and mentality of the peoples of the East, these states could function only under dictatorship. Only dictatorial regimes could exercise power and keep such a motley population in obedience. In general, this was the case until America in 2003, due to the stupidity of Bush Jr., under a far-fetched pretext, overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime, after which Iraq plunged into the bloody slaughter of an endless civil war (1). Attempts to establish Democracy in Iraq have completely failed, because it is impossible to bring democratic values on the bayonets of marines to a people who, for objective reasons, are not ready to accept them. It is the same as bringing a roast pig to a Jewish house as a gift.
A somewhat different picture is observed in Syria, where part of the most advanced population itself, without external interference, rebelled against the dictator Bashar Assad, forming an armed opposition - the Free Syrian Army. Against the background of the civil war that began, significantly weakening the central government, new interested players emerged from various ethnic and religious groups of the population of Syria, who also began to defend their interests with the help of weapons. Soon, on the heterogeneous political field of Syria, a powerful religious movement emerged, sweeping the Middle East, with the goal of creating an Islamic Arab state on a vast territory, including Syria and Iraq, similar to the Islamic state in Iran, a kind of new Caliphate – ISIS. The brutal executions of prisoners, demonstrated by ISIS members to intimidate their opponents, alarmed the world community. ISIS was outlawed, the need to fight this extremist movement became obvious. Assad did not have the strength to resist the chaos engulfing his country, cases of officer desertion in his army became more frequent, and, if we take into account the fact that the democratic countries of the West are unequivocally opposed to his bloody regime, then its fall was predetermined. However, Russia's military intervention on Assad's side saved the regime from inevitable defeat. It should be noted that Moscow has always supported totalitarian regimes as close in spirit to it. So the Putin regime hastened to come to the aid of the Syrian dictator, temporarily postponing the end of his rule.
President Putin, who decided to transfer his experience as a St. Petersburg hooligan to the field of international relations, and, thereby violating the established post-war world order (2), clearly crossed the line. Following in Hitler's footsteps in his revanchist aspirations, Putin inevitably began to repeat his mistakes. Having secretly set himself the goal of recreating the Russian Empire within the borders of the former USSR, the Russian revanchist, like Hitler once, overestimated his strength.
Eastern wisdom says: a wise man makes no mistakes, a smart man makes mistakes only once, and a fool is distinguished by his unwavering persistence in making mistakes. After two major mistakes related to Russia's aggression against Georgia and Ukraine, Putin got involved in the Syrian tangle, hoping to get at least some strategic dividends in exchange for those lost by Moscow under Gorbachev.
It is hard to imagine that Russia's intervention in Syria is explained only by Putin's intention to save Bashar al-Assad from popular wrath and prevent a repeat of the massacre that happened to Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. In my opinion, Putin is pursuing several goals in Syria. One of them is the creation of a permanent Russian naval base in the Mediterranean, not so much to counter the US Sixth Fleet, but to demonstrate Russia's military presence and restore its military power. In addition, a military base in another country is a lever for pursuing one's policy, which is well demonstrated in the case of the Baltic States, which allowed the Russians to create military bases before World War II, after which they were all immediately annexed. And a very recent example is Ukraine, which leased a naval base in Sevastopol to Russia, for which it paid with the annexation of Crimea. It must be said that Moscow, even during the Soviet era, courted dictators in Damascus and Baghdad, but Saddam Hussein was unlucky enough to be hanged, while Bashar al-Assad finally fell into the Kremlin's net. Undoubtedly, by sending Russian soldiers to Syria, Putin satisfied the imperial mentality of the Russian people, who suffered somewhat after the partial collapse of the empire. It is also possible that Putin's military adventure in Syria, according to his plan, should dilute the world community's attention to the annexation of Crimea and the separation of the eastern part of Ukraine. And yet, I think the main reason for the intervention lies in the economic plane.
Russia, being the world's gas station, seeks to maintain a monopoly on the supply of hydrocarbons to the EU as the only revenue source for the state budget, and in this regard, destabilization of the situation in the Middle East seems favorable to Putin. The fact is that in the future, gas pipelines to Europe are planned to be laid through countries such as Turkey, Syria and Iraq, one from Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran through Turkey and the second from Qatar through the territory of Syria and Turkey. The implementation of these projects, of course, and Putin understands this well, will put an end to Russia's monopoly on the European gas market. By making Assad his puppet, Putin has a chance to prevent the laying of a gas pipeline through Syria. Putin can also play the Kurdish card, because in any case, gas pipelines from Qatar will run through places with a Kurdish population. As for the other branch of the gas pipeline from the Caspian region, Putin has the Armenian card in his hands with the smoldering Karabakh conflict and there is no doubt that Putin will use any opportunity to prevent the implementation of these projects, which are capable of collapsing the one-sided economy of Russia and leading to an economic situation in which the Soviet Union collapsed. Thus, the presence of Russians in Syria pursues purely Russian interests, the victims of which are the Syrian people. In rescuing the dictator, Russian planes are ironing out first the territory controlled by the opposition Free Syrian Army, and then ISIS, with almost complete impunity.
After the joint efforts of the military coalition led by America managed to defeat ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria, peace, as expected, did not come. The fact is that in order to achieve their goals, the interested parties relied on local forces, supplying them with weapons. Thus, the Americans armed not only the Iraqi government troops to fight ISIS, but also the Kurds, who, taking advantage of the civil war and weakened central government, set the goal of creating a Kurdish state. The latter caused a protest from Turkey and complicated the already strained US-Turkish relations due to America's failure to extradite Fethullah Gulen, whom the Turks consider the ideological leader of the failed coup in 2016. (3) True, the Americans promised the Turks to stop supplying weapons to the Kurds after the victory over ISIS. Turkey, in turn, provides assistance to the Syrian opposition and the local Turkic population, oppressed by both government troops and Kurdish militants. After the defeat of ISIS, Russia is fighting on Assad's side mainly against the democratic opposition. Iran is sending soldiers to help Assad and the anti-Israeli Hezbollah. And the main thing in all this diversity of political goals is that the weapons supplied to Syria have not disappeared anywhere and no one is going to hand them over after the defeat of ISIS due to the mutual distrust of all interested parties. Hence the problem of refugees.
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