Putin's Donbass offensive faltering

[Cypress]

Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine appears to be faltering, as its troops suffer battlefield losses and logistical and morale problems similar to those they faced in the war’s first phase, Western officials and analysts say.

As Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops in the east by attacking from three sides seemed to stall in recent days, Ukrainians managed to retake a small town near the northern city of Kharkiv. Russia was relying on artillery to pound Ukrainian forces along the 300-mile-long eastern front, but it only managed to make incremental gains, a senior Pentagon official said.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/30/world/ukraine-russia-war-news.amp.html

 

[Walt]

Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine appears to be faltering, as its troops suffer battlefield losses and logistical and morale problems similar to those they faced in the war’s first phase, Western officials and analysts say.

As Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops in the east by attacking from three sides seemed to stall in recent days, Ukrainians managed to retake a small town near the northern city of Kharkiv. Russia was relying on artillery to pound Ukrainian forces along the 300-mile-long eastern front, but it only managed to make incremental gains, a senior Pentagon official said.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/30/world/ukraine-russia-war-news.amp.html

Putin tried for Kyiv, failed, and then announced he was never trying to capture Kyiv. With this new offensive failing, I wonder what he will announce he was really trying for.

 

[Cypress]

Putin tried for Kyiv, failed, and then announced he was never trying to capture Kyiv. With this new offensive failing, I wonder what he will announce he was really trying for.

I see parallels to the Chinese 1979 invasion of Vietnam.

The Chinese offensive faltered, and the outgunned Vietnamese kicked their ass. Eventually china withdrew claiming victory in that they had 'punished' Vietnam sufficiently.

 

[Walt]

I see parallels to the Chinese 1979 invasion of Vietnam.

The Chinese offensive faltered, and the outgunned Vietnamese kicked their ass. Eventually china withdrew claiming victory in that they had 'punished' Vietnam sufficiently.

That may well be how this all turns out.

 

[Cypress]

Putin's Eastern Offensive Stalled

May 1 (UPI) -- Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny, the commander of the Ukrainian military, said Sunday that the country plans to move to using modern weapons that meet NATO standards as experts said the country continues to hold off Russia's assault on its eastern region.

The Institute for the Study of War, a thinktank based in Washington, D.C., said in an analysis update Saturday that troop reinforcements Russia recently sent to eastern Ukraine are "unlikely to enable stalled Russian forces to achieve substantial advances."

The thinktank said that the reinforcements are "unlikely to enable Russian forces to break the current deadlock" because Russian attacks remain confined to two major highways "and cannot leverage greater numbers."

Ukrainian forces have also made several successful counterattacks out of Kharkiv and recaptured a ring of suburbs that may "force Russian forces to redeploy units intended for the Izium axis to hold these positions," according to the thinktank.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on Sunday visited Yagidne and Lukashivka, two villages in the Chernihiv region that officials said had been liberated.

The Institute for the Study of War predicted that Ukrainian forces may even be able to conduct wider counterattacks "in the coming days."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.up...apons-hold-off-eastern-assault/2881651424590/

 

[ExpressLane]

That may well be how this all turns out.

I think it will be stalemate and the war will drag on for years.

 

[archives]

That may well be how this all turns out.

Hate to say it, but I don't see it, sadly

Russia has military superiority, attrition will wear down the Ukraine. Being an autocrat, Putin is in no hurry, knowing nothing regardless of cost or criticism is going to distract him from his objective. Concurrently, he also knows that the likelihood that the Western Democracies will at some point lose interest in the Ukraine is a real possibility, already beginning in the U.S., so time is on his side

 

[Phantasmal]

I think it will be stalemate and the war will drag on for years.

Putin will not last for years with the debilitating sanctions and loss of Russian lives.

 

[ExpressLane]

Hate to say it, but I don't see it, sadly

Russia has military superiority, attrition will wear down the Ukraine. Being an autocrat, Putin is in no hurry, knowing nothing regardless of cost or criticism is going to distract him from his objective. Concurrently, he also knows that the likelihood that the Western Democracies will at some point lose interest in the Ukraine is a real possibility, already beginning in the U.S., so time is on his side

His economy is in shambles he is losing a huge number of soldiers and equipment that he cannot easily replace. Time and attrition is not on his side.

 

[ExpressLane]

Putin will not last for years with the debilitating sanctions and loss of Russian lives.

Possibly but he can pull back and continue to keep fighting with separatist like he has for years now.

 

[Phantasmal]

Possibly but he can pull back and continue to keep fighting with separatist like he has for years now.

And yet, you posted practically the same thing I did…
You:“His economy is in shambles he is losing a huge number of soldiers and equipment that he cannot easily replace. Time and attrition is not on his side.”

Me: “Putin will not last for years with the debilitating sanctions and loss of Russian lives.”

 

[Cypress]

Putin has already lost this war, since his stated goal at the outset was to capture Kyiv and to oust and replace Zalenskyy's "Nazi" government.

Putin has strengthened NATO, isolated Russia, and put Russia on track to be a fading second rate 21st century economic and military power.

It's possible he believes the only way to maintain power is to put Russia on a permanent war footing, which would be the excuse he needs to maintain a permanent autocratic police state cut off from the west and it's 'decadent' influences.

 

[archives]

Putin will not last for years with the debilitating sanctions and loss of Russian lives.

Sure he will, he is a autocrat, no entity inside Russia that is going to challenge him, and besides, the Russian people support his efforts

 

[archives]

His economy is in shambles he is losing a huge number of soldiers and equipment that he cannot easily replace. Time and attrition is not on his side.

Sure it is, whatever it is, he has more than the Ukrainians do, and as I said, he also knows that the likelihood that the Western Democracies will at some point lose interest in the Ukraine is a real possibility, already beginning in the U.S., so time is on his side

 

[Phantasmal]

Sure he will, he is a autocrat, no entity inside Russia that is going to challenge him, and besides, the Russian people support his efforts

But, will they continue, the oil sanctions are expanding.

 

[ExpressLane]

And yet, you posted practically the same thing I did…
You:“His economy is in shambles he is losing a huge number of soldiers and equipment that he cannot easily replace. Time and attrition is not on his side.”

Me: “Putin will not last for years with the debilitating sanctions and loss of Russian lives.”

That is why he will pull back and use separatist proxies

 

[Cypress]

Sure he will, he is a autocrat, no entity inside Russia that is going to challenge him, and besides, the Russian people support his efforts

It took several years for America to turn decisively against the Iraq War. The architect of the war, Bush, even won reelection in 2004. There is always a rally around the flag effect up front.

One thing we know for sure: The ill advised Afghan War was one of the nails in the coffin of the Soviet government

 

[ExpressLane]

Sure it is, whatever it is, he has more than the Ukrainians do, and as I said, he also knows that the likelihood that the Western Democracies will at some point lose interest in the Ukraine is a real possibility, already beginning in the U.S., so time is on his side

But will they lose interest BEFORE Russians get tired of him. Europe is pretty motivated to see Putin weakened.

 

[Cypress]

That is why he will pull back and use separatist proxies

That would be a massive victory for Zalenskyy and a humiliation for Putin. Putin's stated goal was to capture Kyiv and remove the drug addled Nazi government

 

[Phantasmal]

That is why he will pull back and use separatist proxies

Soldiers for hire are not an affective means of holding onto cities that have been captured, they may be good for the initial battles, but not the long haul.