Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
Here's a report I was forwarded about the state of the economy that is pretty good.
GDP
*
The U.S. economy continued to grow during the second quarter, the government reported Friday. But the pace slowed more than economists were expecting, raising concern about growth - or even another recession - in the months ahead.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, rose at a 2.4% annual rate during the three months ended June 30, the Commerce Department said.
The sluggish pace was down from the upwardly revised 3.7% growth rate in the first quarter, and missed economists' forecast for a 2.5% increase.
Still, the figure marked the fourth straight quarter of growth and gave credence to some economists' views that the recession that began in December 2007 likely ended at some point in mid-2009.
"This solid rate of growth indicates that the process of steady recovery from the recession continues," said Christina Romer, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in a statement.
"Nevertheless, faster growth is needed to bring about substantial reductions in unemployment," she added. "Much work clearly remains to be done before the U.S. economy is fully recovered."
*
Manufacturing
*
Manufacturing activity expanded for the 12th consecutive month in July, but at a slower rate than the month before, according to a purchasing managers' index released August 2nd.*
*
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index of U.S. manufacturing dropped to 55.5 in July from 56.2 in June. Any score above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector.
While the report shows growth in the manufacturing industry slowed during the month, July's number is slightly better than analysts expected, showing higher employment, supplier deliveries and prices in the industry.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting a reading of 54.2.
"July marks 12 consecutive months of growth in manufacturing, and indications are that demand is still quite strong in 10 of 18 industries," Norbert Ore, chairman of the Tempe, Ariz.-based ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement.
Of the 18 industries surveyed in the report, 10 reported growth. Plastics and rubber products, electrical equipment and appliances were among the industries showing the strongest growth.
Overall, manufacturing growth has slowed for the last three months, with the index dropping about 5 points from the 60.4 reading in April that was the fastest growth rate in six years. The slowdown is consistent with an overall easing in the economic recovery, said Paul Dales, an economist with Capital Economics.
"July's ISM survey provides further evidence of what we have been expecting all along; a fading of the economic recovery in the second half of this year and into next year, but no second recession," he said in a note to investors.
The employment section of the index reported a jump in hiring in the industry, which is an optimistic sign for the economy overall, said Dan Meckstroth, chief economist with the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI .
Uncertain about the recovery, firms have been reluctant to boost their hiring and, instead, have been increasing hours or productivity in other ways. A boost in manufacturing jobs likely means that firms are confident there will be a lot of new orders in the pipeline, Meckstroth said.
The report brought two other encouraging signs: exports are growing faster than imports, and inventories expanded in July after contracting for the previous three months.
Meckstroth expects to see stronger overall growth in August in the machinery and high-tech sectors, as factories use their extra cash to make selective improvements to their equipment to further increase productivity.
The ISM index reflects the number of people who say economic conditions are better, compared with those who say conditions are worse.
While the index can paint a picture of broad trends, some analysts warn that because it stems from a survey, the index can be subjective.
Consumer Confidence
Uncertainty about the economy continued to shake consumer confidence in July, pushing a key measure of morale to the lowest level since February.
The Conference Board, a New York-based research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped for a second straight month, to 50.4 in July from June's upwardly revised level of 54.3.
July's reading was lower than expected. Economists had forecast the index to have ticked down to 51 in July from 52.9 in June, according to a consensus estimate from Briefing.com.
"Consumer confidence faded further in July as consumers continue to grow increasingly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook," Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. "Concerns about business conditions and the labor market are casting a dark cloud over consumers that is not likely to lift until the job market improves."
Before the sharp drop in June, the consumer confidence index had risen for three straight months. And while the latest reading of 50.4 is much higher than the record low of 25.3 hit in February 2009, it is still significantly below 90, a level that typically indicates a stable economy.
The decline in consumer confidence in July was driven by lower expectations about short-term economic improvement and more pessimism about the present state of the economy.
The index's expectations component slipped to 66.6 in July from 72.7 in June, while the present situation component, which tracks consumers' expectations over the next few months, fell to 26.1 from 26.8.
Consumers were also increasingly gloomy about job prospects this month, with 14.3% of consumers anticipating more jobs in the coming months, down from 16.2% in June.
They had reason to worry, since the government's closely watched jobs report for June showed that the U.S. economy lost jobs for the first time this year.
July's report is expected to show a loss of 116,000 jobs, following the decline of 125,000 in June.**
Home Prices
Home prices rose slightly in May compared with a month earlier, appearing to have stablized at the lower levels that followed the end of the residential real estate bubble, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 major housing markets released August 3rd.
Prices were up 1.3% from April, and 4.6% from 12 months earlier.
The price rise might have reflected one of the last gasps of the government's incentive program, which paid tax refunds of as much as $8,000 to homebuyers if they signed a sales contract before May 1.
"It does look like the market was boosted by the tax credit," said Robert Dye, senior economist for PNC Financial Services. "It seems to have pulled some of the demand forward."
Although the increase was welcome news for the beleaguered housing market, S&P spokesman David Blitzer downplayed the gain.
"While May's report on its own looks somewhat positive, a broader look at home price levels over the past year still do not indicate that the housing market is in any form of sustained recovery," he said. "Since reaching its recent trough in April 2009, the housing market has really only stabilized at this lower level. The last seven months have basically been flat."
Home prices peaked back in July 2006 and fell for 33 straight months before bottoming out in April 2009. The peak-to-trough decline came to more than 32%.
The index went on a short upswing for five months, regaining 5.3% of its loss before turning tail again, declining 2.2% before a modest rebound in April.
Inflation
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July 16th. Over the last 12 months, the index increased 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Similarly to April and May, a decline in the energy index caused theseasonally adjusted all items decrease in June. The index for energy decreased 2.9 percent in June, the same decline as in May, with a decline in the gasoline index accounting for most of the decrease. This more than offset an increase in the index for all items lessfood and energy, while the food index was unchanged for the second month in a row.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June after increasing 0.1 percent in May. A broad array of indexes posted increases, including shelter, apparel, used cars, medical care, tobacco, and recreation. These increases more than offset declines in the indexes for household furnishings and operations and for airline
fares. The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy remained at 0.9 percent for the third month in a row.
Retail Sales
Retail sales fell for the second straight month in June, following seven consecutive increases, with weakness in the automotive sector a key factor in the downturn, the government said July 14th.
Total retail sales fell 0.5% to $360.2 billion last month, compared with May's upwardly revised 1.1% decrease, the Commerce Department said.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected that sales would slip by 0.2% during the month.
"June's retail sales figures add to the growing batch of evidence suggesting that the economic recovery shifted into a lower gear toward the end of the second quarter," said economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics.
Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so retail sales and related reports are closely monitored to gauge the health of the economy.
The worse-than-expected decline was led by a slump in autos. Motor vehicle and parts sales dropped 2.3% during the month.
Sales excluding autos and auto parts dropped 0.1% last month. Economists had projected sales excluding autos to hold steady in June.
Job Growth
For the second month in a row, the U.S. economy shed jobs as the government continued to unload census workers, offsetting disappointing gains in private business hiring.
The Labor Department today reported a net loss of 131,000 jobs in July, an improvement from the revised loss of 221,000 jobs in June.
The loss was due to the end of 143,000 temporary census jobs in the month, but hiring by businesses also continued to be weak, as those employers added only 71,000 jobs in July.
"The job market has lost steam and remains lethargic," said Sung Won Sohn, economics professor at Cal State University Channel Islands.
Businesses have now added jobs in every month so far this year, a total of 630,000 positions. But that works out to an anemic 90,000 a month. There needs to be an overall gain of about 150,000 jobs a month just to keep pace with population growth.
And private sector job growth seems to be losing ground. The 71,000 gain in business hiring was up from even weaker revised readings for May and June, but was still well below the nearly 200,000 monthly gains in March and April, when the labor market appeared set to turn the corner.
"The private sector is just not strong enough," said Tig Gilliam, CEO of Adecco Group North America, a unit of the world's largest employment staffing firm. "Companies are still cautious on the hiring front. They're taking a long time to make decisions. All of that suggests continued uncertainty and slow improvement."
Public sector job losses weren't limited to temporary jobs, as government jobs outside of census fell by 59,000 in the month, most being cut from state and local governments facing budget problems.
The overall loss was worse than the 87,000 job loss forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.5% in June. Economists had expected the jobless rate to edge up to 9.6%. But that was mostly because of 381,000 workers who stopped looking for work in recent weeks, and were therefore no longer counted as part of the labor force.
That jump in discouraged workers may have been partly due to the loss of extended unemployment benefits for many jobless during the month. Without the incentive of having to look for work to collect benefits, many workers simply gave up looking.
The percentage of the population with jobs fell for the third straight month to 58.4% and is now approaching the 26-year low in that reading reached in December.
There was some good news buried in the report. The average hourly work week increased 0.1 hours (WooHoo!) to 33.5, suggesting that workers who had their hours reduced were being called back to work full time. The number of part-time workers who would prefer to work full time fell by 98,000 to 8.5 million.*
GDP
*
The U.S. economy continued to grow during the second quarter, the government reported Friday. But the pace slowed more than economists were expecting, raising concern about growth - or even another recession - in the months ahead.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, rose at a 2.4% annual rate during the three months ended June 30, the Commerce Department said.
The sluggish pace was down from the upwardly revised 3.7% growth rate in the first quarter, and missed economists' forecast for a 2.5% increase.
Still, the figure marked the fourth straight quarter of growth and gave credence to some economists' views that the recession that began in December 2007 likely ended at some point in mid-2009.
"This solid rate of growth indicates that the process of steady recovery from the recession continues," said Christina Romer, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, in a statement.
"Nevertheless, faster growth is needed to bring about substantial reductions in unemployment," she added. "Much work clearly remains to be done before the U.S. economy is fully recovered."
*
Manufacturing
*
Manufacturing activity expanded for the 12th consecutive month in July, but at a slower rate than the month before, according to a purchasing managers' index released August 2nd.*
*
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index of U.S. manufacturing dropped to 55.5 in July from 56.2 in June. Any score above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector.
While the report shows growth in the manufacturing industry slowed during the month, July's number is slightly better than analysts expected, showing higher employment, supplier deliveries and prices in the industry.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting a reading of 54.2.
"July marks 12 consecutive months of growth in manufacturing, and indications are that demand is still quite strong in 10 of 18 industries," Norbert Ore, chairman of the Tempe, Ariz.-based ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement.
Of the 18 industries surveyed in the report, 10 reported growth. Plastics and rubber products, electrical equipment and appliances were among the industries showing the strongest growth.
Overall, manufacturing growth has slowed for the last three months, with the index dropping about 5 points from the 60.4 reading in April that was the fastest growth rate in six years. The slowdown is consistent with an overall easing in the economic recovery, said Paul Dales, an economist with Capital Economics.
"July's ISM survey provides further evidence of what we have been expecting all along; a fading of the economic recovery in the second half of this year and into next year, but no second recession," he said in a note to investors.
The employment section of the index reported a jump in hiring in the industry, which is an optimistic sign for the economy overall, said Dan Meckstroth, chief economist with the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI .
Uncertain about the recovery, firms have been reluctant to boost their hiring and, instead, have been increasing hours or productivity in other ways. A boost in manufacturing jobs likely means that firms are confident there will be a lot of new orders in the pipeline, Meckstroth said.
The report brought two other encouraging signs: exports are growing faster than imports, and inventories expanded in July after contracting for the previous three months.
Meckstroth expects to see stronger overall growth in August in the machinery and high-tech sectors, as factories use their extra cash to make selective improvements to their equipment to further increase productivity.
The ISM index reflects the number of people who say economic conditions are better, compared with those who say conditions are worse.
While the index can paint a picture of broad trends, some analysts warn that because it stems from a survey, the index can be subjective.
Consumer Confidence
Uncertainty about the economy continued to shake consumer confidence in July, pushing a key measure of morale to the lowest level since February.
The Conference Board, a New York-based research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped for a second straight month, to 50.4 in July from June's upwardly revised level of 54.3.
July's reading was lower than expected. Economists had forecast the index to have ticked down to 51 in July from 52.9 in June, according to a consensus estimate from Briefing.com.
"Consumer confidence faded further in July as consumers continue to grow increasingly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook," Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. "Concerns about business conditions and the labor market are casting a dark cloud over consumers that is not likely to lift until the job market improves."
Before the sharp drop in June, the consumer confidence index had risen for three straight months. And while the latest reading of 50.4 is much higher than the record low of 25.3 hit in February 2009, it is still significantly below 90, a level that typically indicates a stable economy.
The decline in consumer confidence in July was driven by lower expectations about short-term economic improvement and more pessimism about the present state of the economy.
The index's expectations component slipped to 66.6 in July from 72.7 in June, while the present situation component, which tracks consumers' expectations over the next few months, fell to 26.1 from 26.8.
Consumers were also increasingly gloomy about job prospects this month, with 14.3% of consumers anticipating more jobs in the coming months, down from 16.2% in June.
They had reason to worry, since the government's closely watched jobs report for June showed that the U.S. economy lost jobs for the first time this year.
July's report is expected to show a loss of 116,000 jobs, following the decline of 125,000 in June.**
Home Prices
Home prices rose slightly in May compared with a month earlier, appearing to have stablized at the lower levels that followed the end of the residential real estate bubble, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 major housing markets released August 3rd.
Prices were up 1.3% from April, and 4.6% from 12 months earlier.
The price rise might have reflected one of the last gasps of the government's incentive program, which paid tax refunds of as much as $8,000 to homebuyers if they signed a sales contract before May 1.
"It does look like the market was boosted by the tax credit," said Robert Dye, senior economist for PNC Financial Services. "It seems to have pulled some of the demand forward."
Although the increase was welcome news for the beleaguered housing market, S&P spokesman David Blitzer downplayed the gain.
"While May's report on its own looks somewhat positive, a broader look at home price levels over the past year still do not indicate that the housing market is in any form of sustained recovery," he said. "Since reaching its recent trough in April 2009, the housing market has really only stabilized at this lower level. The last seven months have basically been flat."
Home prices peaked back in July 2006 and fell for 33 straight months before bottoming out in April 2009. The peak-to-trough decline came to more than 32%.
The index went on a short upswing for five months, regaining 5.3% of its loss before turning tail again, declining 2.2% before a modest rebound in April.
Inflation
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July 16th. Over the last 12 months, the index increased 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Similarly to April and May, a decline in the energy index caused theseasonally adjusted all items decrease in June. The index for energy decreased 2.9 percent in June, the same decline as in May, with a decline in the gasoline index accounting for most of the decrease. This more than offset an increase in the index for all items lessfood and energy, while the food index was unchanged for the second month in a row.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June after increasing 0.1 percent in May. A broad array of indexes posted increases, including shelter, apparel, used cars, medical care, tobacco, and recreation. These increases more than offset declines in the indexes for household furnishings and operations and for airline
fares. The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy remained at 0.9 percent for the third month in a row.
Retail Sales
Retail sales fell for the second straight month in June, following seven consecutive increases, with weakness in the automotive sector a key factor in the downturn, the government said July 14th.
Total retail sales fell 0.5% to $360.2 billion last month, compared with May's upwardly revised 1.1% decrease, the Commerce Department said.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected that sales would slip by 0.2% during the month.
"June's retail sales figures add to the growing batch of evidence suggesting that the economic recovery shifted into a lower gear toward the end of the second quarter," said economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics.
Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so retail sales and related reports are closely monitored to gauge the health of the economy.
The worse-than-expected decline was led by a slump in autos. Motor vehicle and parts sales dropped 2.3% during the month.
Sales excluding autos and auto parts dropped 0.1% last month. Economists had projected sales excluding autos to hold steady in June.
Job Growth
For the second month in a row, the U.S. economy shed jobs as the government continued to unload census workers, offsetting disappointing gains in private business hiring.
The Labor Department today reported a net loss of 131,000 jobs in July, an improvement from the revised loss of 221,000 jobs in June.
The loss was due to the end of 143,000 temporary census jobs in the month, but hiring by businesses also continued to be weak, as those employers added only 71,000 jobs in July.
"The job market has lost steam and remains lethargic," said Sung Won Sohn, economics professor at Cal State University Channel Islands.
Businesses have now added jobs in every month so far this year, a total of 630,000 positions. But that works out to an anemic 90,000 a month. There needs to be an overall gain of about 150,000 jobs a month just to keep pace with population growth.
And private sector job growth seems to be losing ground. The 71,000 gain in business hiring was up from even weaker revised readings for May and June, but was still well below the nearly 200,000 monthly gains in March and April, when the labor market appeared set to turn the corner.
"The private sector is just not strong enough," said Tig Gilliam, CEO of Adecco Group North America, a unit of the world's largest employment staffing firm. "Companies are still cautious on the hiring front. They're taking a long time to make decisions. All of that suggests continued uncertainty and slow improvement."
Public sector job losses weren't limited to temporary jobs, as government jobs outside of census fell by 59,000 in the month, most being cut from state and local governments facing budget problems.
The overall loss was worse than the 87,000 job loss forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.5% in June. Economists had expected the jobless rate to edge up to 9.6%. But that was mostly because of 381,000 workers who stopped looking for work in recent weeks, and were therefore no longer counted as part of the labor force.
That jump in discouraged workers may have been partly due to the loss of extended unemployment benefits for many jobless during the month. Without the incentive of having to look for work to collect benefits, many workers simply gave up looking.
The percentage of the population with jobs fell for the third straight month to 58.4% and is now approaching the 26-year low in that reading reached in December.
There was some good news buried in the report. The average hourly work week increased 0.1 hours (WooHoo!) to 33.5, suggesting that workers who had their hours reduced were being called back to work full time. The number of part-time workers who would prefer to work full time fell by 98,000 to 8.5 million.*
