cawacko
Well-known member
Noah Smith is a professor, economist and cultural commentator. He's a liberal guy but not a political partisan/ideologue so I find his work interesting. Outside of myself, I think there are very few people on here - if any - that live in (big) cities here but nonetheless for those interested in what's going on (and not just from Fox News' perspective) this a great read.
Cities have their ups and down like everywhere else. Right now we're seeing a period of down. But that doesn't mean it will always stay this way. (The article was too long to post it all)
Donald Trump’s victory last week wasn’t the only important election result. Big cities in California shifted away from so-called “progressive” governance. In San Francisco, progressive champion Aaron Peskin was soundly defeated in the mayoral race, and his vacated seat was won by a moderate. Peskin’s close ally, Dean Preston, was unseated by moderate challenger Bilal Mahmood, and the Board of Supervisors is expected to lose its progressive majority. In Los Angeles progressive district attorney George Gascón lost his reelection bid, while Oakland’s Pamela Price was recalled. This followed a national trend of progressive DAs getting the boot; meanwhile, San Francisco’s moderate DA Brooke Jenkins, who succeeded the notorious Chesa Boudin after the latter was recalled, easily cruised to reelection.
It’s possible to interpret these victories as part of a general revolt against progressive governance in big cities. At the local level that’s a good thing, since that governance has proven remarkably poor. But at the national level, the urban revolt against probably helped usher in another four years of Donald Trump. Although large metros still voted for the Democrats overall, they swung harder towards Trump than any other geographic region:
Source: Jed Kolko
Derek Thompson has some more numbers:
Of course I don’t know how big of a factor this was in Trump’s victory, but I’m not actually sure that even matters. Barro is largely correct about the sad state of blue cities, and it’s the inhabitants of those cities who are suffering the most from that failure of governance. The most important reason to fix those cities isn’t to help Democrats get elected at the national level, but because it would make life better for urban residents themselves. The swing toward Trump is simply an illustration of just how angry city dwellers are.
Starting around the 1980s, though, America experienced an urban revival. Big cities began to gain back some of the population they had lost:
There were a number of reasons for this revival. One was the rise of knowledge industries like tech, finance, and business services, which tend to cluster together in cities. As Enrico Moretti shows in The New Geography of Jobs, human capital tended to cluster in big cities after around 1980 or so; Richard Florida also famously documented this in The Rise of the Creative Class. Here’s some data from Jed Kolko for 2000-2014 that’s pretty representative of the general shift:
www.noahpinion.blog
Cities have their ups and down like everywhere else. Right now we're seeing a period of down. But that doesn't mean it will always stay this way. (The article was too long to post it all)
The blue cities must be fixed
If you want to govern the nation, you should first be able to govern San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles.
Donald Trump’s victory last week wasn’t the only important election result. Big cities in California shifted away from so-called “progressive” governance. In San Francisco, progressive champion Aaron Peskin was soundly defeated in the mayoral race, and his vacated seat was won by a moderate. Peskin’s close ally, Dean Preston, was unseated by moderate challenger Bilal Mahmood, and the Board of Supervisors is expected to lose its progressive majority. In Los Angeles progressive district attorney George Gascón lost his reelection bid, while Oakland’s Pamela Price was recalled. This followed a national trend of progressive DAs getting the boot; meanwhile, San Francisco’s moderate DA Brooke Jenkins, who succeeded the notorious Chesa Boudin after the latter was recalled, easily cruised to reelection.
It’s possible to interpret these victories as part of a general revolt against progressive governance in big cities. At the local level that’s a good thing, since that governance has proven remarkably poor. But at the national level, the urban revolt against probably helped usher in another four years of Donald Trump. Although large metros still voted for the Democrats overall, they swung harder towards Trump than any other geographic region:
Source: Jed Kolko
Derek Thompson has some more numbers:
Josh Barro wrote an insightful post-election post arguing that big cities’ failure to curb urban disorder, fiscal waste, and soaring housing costs drove their inhabitants away from the Democratic party. Some key excerpts:
Of course I don’t know how big of a factor this was in Trump’s victory, but I’m not actually sure that even matters. Barro is largely correct about the sad state of blue cities, and it’s the inhabitants of those cities who are suffering the most from that failure of governance. The most important reason to fix those cities isn’t to help Democrats get elected at the national level, but because it would make life better for urban residents themselves. The swing toward Trump is simply an illustration of just how angry city dwellers are.
The blue city renaissance, 1980-2012
It’s important to remember that just a few years ago, the general consensus was that big cities in America were doing really well. In 2017, Will Wilkinson cited the success of American cities as a reason to reject Trump:Wilkinson’s paean to big cities was the culmination of decades of real success. In the middle of the 20th century, America’s cities had been hollowed out, by a combination of soaring urban crime and the lure of the suburbs. In the 1970s, big metropolises were still losing population. NYC almost went bankrupt.
Starting around the 1980s, though, America experienced an urban revival. Big cities began to gain back some of the population they had lost:
There were a number of reasons for this revival. One was the rise of knowledge industries like tech, finance, and business services, which tend to cluster together in cities. As Enrico Moretti shows in The New Geography of Jobs, human capital tended to cluster in big cities after around 1980 or so; Richard Florida also famously documented this in The Rise of the Creative Class. Here’s some data from Jed Kolko for 2000-2014 that’s pretty representative of the general shift:
The blue cities must be fixed
If you want to govern the nation, you should first be able to govern San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles.
www.noahpinion.blog
