The recession is over

Topspin

Topspin

Verified User
Says a consensus of economist.
They forecast 2.4% in the third QTR
If that's the case Obama's approval will reverse the short dip and skyrocket:clink:
 
Get ready.

Start planning your trip to DC for President Obama's second inauguration.
 
...and the companies are just abusing there employees with this recession. My company earnings beat estimates and projections were great for Q2 earnings call. The stock is back to where it was before the crash 12 months ago.. yet they have managed to eliminate our ESPP plan, eliminate our vacation banking, eliminate our 401kmatch, and give us a 10% reduction in pay using the 12month recession. Sweet.
 
I would not be quite so quick to jump on the 'the recession is over' bandwagon. While top is correct in that many economists are stating we are, there are two big shoes that could drop and crush it right back down. Not counting the insane level of deficit spending that is being projected for the next ten years.

1) Credit card debt: The country is trying to pay down debt, but the banks are in large part raising rates and payments at a time when people are struggling to pay their bills. This could cause the credit market to further tighten as people increasingly default on their cc debt.

2) Commercial real estate: Many publicly traded REITs and individual property owners have seen the credit market disappear at a time when their debt is coming up for refinancing. If this doesn't correct itself, the commercial market may follow the residential market into a downward spiral.

The two above, combined with more job losses and more potential problems in residential real estate could send us back to test the March lows. If this market begins to retract here, consumers are going to hit the bail button a lot faster this time. Meaning a correction may be very harsh over a short period of time. IF (please note the IF) this occurs, we could be in a recession for another couple of years.

The trend is positive right now, but red flags are being thrown up that warrant some caution. Just my two cents.
 
An artificial shoe also looms over the horizon, Cap and Trade. The economy could not at this time absorb an effective tarrif on every good purchased in the US. The jobs sector couldn't survive an effective tarrif on all good produced in the US, including those going over seas for sale. It is already difficult for the US to compete globally because of the cost of production here, this would be for many in industry the final straw.
 
I'm with both of you on the above.
But here me out. The recession was mainly wall street related pigs wrapped in bow stuff until the spill over. Most companies we're not in that bad of shape. The 3rd and 4th qtr comparrisons are vs garbage performance last year.
 
Damocles said:
An artificial shoe also looms over the horizon, Cap and Trade. The economy could not at this time absorb an effective tarrif on every good purchased in the US. The jobs sector couldn't survive an effective tarrif on all good produced in the US, including those going over seas for sale. It is already difficult for the US to compete globally because of the cost of production here, this would be for many in industry the final straw.
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Yeah, because there's no industry in Europe.

You're a gloomer, Damo. I hope you like it when humanity is wiped out because you refused to pass cap-and-trade. Great trade off there. The costs aren't that large and it's required. We HAVE to do this. There is no other option. You're pure evil if you oppose it, simple as that.

If you have problems with competition, pass carbon tariffs.
 
Superfreak said:
I would not be quite so quick to jump on the 'the recession is over' bandwagon. While top is correct in that many economists are stating we are, there are two big shoes that could drop and crush it right back down. Not counting the insane level of deficit spending that is being projected for the next ten years.

1) Credit card debt: The country is trying to pay down debt, but the banks are in large part raising rates and payments at a time when people are struggling to pay their bills. This could cause the credit market to further tighten as people increasingly default on their cc debt.

2) Commercial real estate: Many publicly traded REITs and individual property owners have seen the credit market disappear at a time when their debt is coming up for refinancing. If this doesn't correct itself, the commercial market may follow the residential market into a downward spiral.

The two above, combined with more job losses and more potential problems in residential real estate could send us back to test the March lows. If this market begins to retract here, consumers are going to hit the bail button a lot faster this time. Meaning a correction may be very harsh over a short period of time. IF (please note the IF) this occurs, we could be in a recession for another couple of years.

The trend is positive right now, but red flags are being thrown up that warrant some caution. Just my two cents.
Click to expand...

I'll second that commercial real estate concern. Man, real estate companies still aren't hiring for the most part and there is a lot of concern especially with fund owners who have parts of their funds underwater right now.
 
cawacko said:
I'll second that commercial real estate concern. Man, real estate companies still aren't hiring for the most part and there is a lot of concern especially with fund owners who have parts of their funds underwater right now.
Click to expand...

That is why I am only using the the non-traded REITS that are still raising cash. They are getting some pretty sweet deals right now because cash is most certainly king at this point given the lack of credit out there.
 
Watermark said:
Yeah, because there's no industry in Europe.

You're a gloomer, Damo. I hope you like it when humanity is wiped out because you refused to pass cap-and-trade. Great trade off there. The costs aren't that large and it's required. We HAVE to do this. There is no other option. You're pure evil if you oppose it, simple as that.

If you have problems with competition, pass carbon tariffs.
Click to expand...
This is inane. The stuff they build in Europe would still be more expensive here too, because it must be delivered using fuel that will cost more. If you don't recognize the huge inflationary nature of this legislation it is because of deliberate ignorance, not because you weren't educated on it.

Stuff built here would be more expensive, stuff built in Europe would be more expensive, stuff sold in Europe from the US would be more expensive, stuff built in places without this insane inflationary tarrif placed on every good sold in the US... much cheaper in Europe, still more expensive here because they still would be delivered using the artificially inflated fuel cost.

It incentivizes people in other nations to purchase stuff built elsewhere because it is like a voluntary tarrif placed on our goods sold elsewhere.

This is bad legislation. It almost appears as if it were designed to ruin an economy.
 
The recession will not be over until employment picks up. The US economy depends over 2/3 on consumer spending.
 
uscitizen said:
The recession will not be over until employment picks up. The US economy depends over 2/3 on consumer spending.
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must you prove daily how bad a GED is?
Employment is a lagging indicator, we'll be well into the recovery by the time employment turns up.
 
Emaployment was more of a lagging indicator in past receaaions. But our economy did not depend as heavailly on consumer spending then. The situation changes and so does the rules.
 
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