The Sleeping Beauty conundrum

why I was so pissed on the other board from when you were a constant enforcement cop on "topic drift".

I always knew you were better than that.
 
Sammy Jankis said:
coins always have a 50 /50 chance.

it depends on if this bitch is dumb. or not.
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Ah, but her decision is based on the wording of the question. There are two chances she was awakened on the toss of tails, but only one on the toss of heads. Without knowledge of whether being awakened a second time in a row occurs, her decision is now 1 in 3 versus the 1 in 2 of the toss alone.

Now, if she were to always choose the same answer... then it's 1 in 2. On the other hand, if her decision to answer is random with each awakening... then it's 1 in 3. Depends on how she answers doesn't it?
 
T. A. Gardner said:
Ah, but her decision is based on the wording of the question. There are two chances she was awakened on the toss of tails, but only one on the toss of heads. Without knowledge of whether being awakened a second time in a row occurs, her decision is now 1 in 3 versus the 1 in 2 of the toss alone.

Now, if she were to always choose the same answer... then it's 1 in 2. On the other hand, if her decision to answer is random with each awakening... then it's 1 in 3. Depends on how she answers doesn't it?
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coins don't change.

the rest is dumbness.
 
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