Tough election math for Trump: his base is shrinking

Guno צְבִי

Guno צְבִי

We fight, We win, Am Yisrael Chai
The problem, from an electoral standpoint, is that this base—which generally skews 1) older, 2) white, 3) male, 4) rural and 5) less educated—continues to shrink and runs counter to an America that is going in the opposite direction.


A look at changing demographics in key swing states reflects Trump’s problem.

For example, Trump won Michigan (16 electoral votes) by just 10,704 votes. Since then, and based on data from four separate organizations that was crunched by The Wall Street Journal, the percentage of the projected 2020 electorate has declined by 2.0 points among whites without a college degree (a key Trump constituency), while growing 0.7% for whites with a degree, 0.2% for Blacks, and 0.5% for Hispanics. These are small changes, but given Trump’s razor-thin 2016 margin and an unemployment rate that has quadrupled on his watch to 21.2% (May), it isn’t exactly a stretch to say the president is in trouble there.

It is a similar story in other swing states. The percentage of the projected white nondegree electorate has shrunk by 2.8% in Arizona, 2.3% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 2.2% in North Carolina and 2.1% in Florida—while all the other groups have grown. These six states account for 101 electoral votes.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/o...h-for-trump-his-base-is-shrinking-11594250191
 
guno said:
The problem, from an electoral standpoint, is that this base—which generally skews 1) older, 2) white, 3) male, 4) rural and 5) less educated—continues to shrink and runs counter to an America that is going in the opposite direction.


A look at changing demographics in key swing states reflects Trump’s problem.

For example, Trump won Michigan (16 electoral votes) by just 10,704 votes. Since then, and based on data from four separate organizations that was crunched by The Wall Street Journal, the percentage of the projected 2020 electorate has declined by 2.0 points among whites without a college degree (a key Trump constituency), while growing 0.7% for whites with a degree, 0.2% for Blacks, and 0.5% for Hispanics. These are small changes, but given Trump’s razor-thin 2016 margin and an unemployment rate that has quadrupled on his watch to 21.2% (May), it isn’t exactly a stretch to say the president is in trouble there.

It is a similar story in other swing states. The percentage of the projected white nondegree electorate has shrunk by 2.8% in Arizona, 2.3% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 2.2% in North Carolina and 2.1% in Florida—while all the other groups have grown. These six states account for 101 electoral votes.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/o...h-for-trump-his-base-is-shrinking-11594250191
Click to expand...


People in MI may be racist but the recent event of a white woman pulling a gun on black woman made national news. Most Americans do not want blacks to be threatened.
 
guno said:
The problem, from an electoral standpoint, is that this base—which generally skews 1) older, 2) white, 3) male, 4) rural and 5) less educated—continues to shrink and runs counter to an America that is going in the opposite direction.


A look at changing demographics in key swing states reflects Trump’s problem.

For example, Trump won Michigan (16 electoral votes) by just 10,704 votes. Since then, and based on data from four separate organizations that was crunched by The Wall Street Journal, the percentage of the projected 2020 electorate has declined by 2.0 points among whites without a college degree (a key Trump constituency), while growing 0.7% for whites with a degree, 0.2% for Blacks, and 0.5% for Hispanics. These are small changes, but given Trump’s razor-thin 2016 margin and an unemployment rate that has quadrupled on his watch to 21.2% (May), it isn’t exactly a stretch to say the president is in trouble there.

It is a similar story in other swing states. The percentage of the projected white nondegree electorate has shrunk by 2.8% in Arizona, 2.3% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 2.2% in North Carolina and 2.1% in Florida—while all the other groups have grown. These six states account for 101 electoral votes.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/o...h-for-trump-his-base-is-shrinking-11594250191
Click to expand...

reminds me of the math used in 2016 that worked out so well,,,
 
guno said:
The problem, from an electoral standpoint, is that this base—which generally skews 1) older, 2) white, 3) male, 4) rural and 5) less educated—continues to shrink and runs counter to an America that is going in the opposite direction.


A look at changing demographics in key swing states reflects Trump’s problem.

For example, Trump won Michigan (16 electoral votes) by just 10,704 votes. Since then, and based on data from four separate organizations that was crunched by The Wall Street Journal, the percentage of the projected 2020 electorate has declined by 2.0 points among whites without a college degree (a key Trump constituency), while growing 0.7% for whites with a degree, 0.2% for Blacks, and 0.5% for Hispanics. These are small changes, but given Trump’s razor-thin 2016 margin and an unemployment rate that has quadrupled on his watch to 21.2% (May), it isn’t exactly a stretch to say the president is in trouble there.

It is a similar story in other swing states. The percentage of the projected white nondegree electorate has shrunk by 2.8% in Arizona, 2.3% in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 2.2% in North Carolina and 2.1% in Florida—while all the other groups have grown. These six states account for 101 electoral votes.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/o...h-for-trump-his-base-is-shrinking-11594250191
Click to expand...

I think the gop has an answer for this, selective voter suppression: suppression in those areas where ppl tend to vote the wrong way.

Those selfish ppl put their own interests before trumps & frankly don't deserve a vote. The folks in the good areas, real wholesome Americans will represent this country & it's valuers. :rolleyes:
 
last I heard Republicans are out-registering Dems. that's an outlier,but the "base" is there and enthusiastic
 
blades said:
reminds me of the math used in 2016 that worked out so well,,,
Click to expand...

Totally different situation. Hillary is far less popular than Biden. And we didn't know Trump would be THIS bad. We knew he'd be bad, but we didn't think he'd cause a recession and a shutdown.

That being said, I do think Trump is the favorite going into the election. My only point is that Biden stands a much better chance than Hillary did.
 
StoneByStone said:
Totally different situation. Hillary is far less popular than Biden. And we didn't know Trump would be THIS bad. We knew he'd be bad, but we didn't think he'd cause a recession and a shutdown.

That being said, I do think Trump is the favorite going into the election. My only point is that Biden stands a much better chance than Hillary did.
Click to expand...

world wide pandemic caused the shutdown not trump,,,

and biden being more liked is just sad knowing the truth about him,,,

aside from hos dementia is him using his office to enrich his family and his connections to communist china,,,
 
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