Trump’s hopes for a rapid economic recovery are likely a pipe dream

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floridafan

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President Donald Trump is hoping to reopen the American economy in May and quickly get back to the low unemployment rates that he used to justify his claim that he’d created the “best economy” in history.

However, economists who spoke with Vox think that Trump’s vision of a rapid V-shaped economic recovery amid the COVID-19 pandemic are simply a pipe dream.

“The very best case scenario is we rapidly bounce back and we get close to something where we were before,” said Jesse Edgerton, an economist at JPMorgan. “Personally, I think that’s highly unlikely. The shock from the virus is going to trigger a broader economy-wide recession.”


Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, predicted that there would be “permanent damage” inflicted upon the economy that would further widen the gulf between rich and poor Americans.

“What this shock is doing is exacerbating preexisting inequality issues across the country,” he said. “The individuals who have been hit the hardest are the individuals who were in the most precarious position to start with.”

Claudia Sahm, director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, similarly said that people who worked at low-wage jobs will face the biggest struggles to recover.

“Wages are going to come out of the recovery worse than they were,” Sahm said. “Everything is going to be worse for workers who went into the recession in the most fragile position and there are a lot of them
 
Employment will recover when demand does. People buying products is what makes a company thrive. When this ends, the people will not have money and some that do, will not likely be blowing it. This will probably be a slow recovery.
 
As per usual, a Democratic president is going to have to clean up the carnage left by a Republican president
 
All my employees are working daily .... we gave them masks .

And every place I shop is open for business as usual . JS
 
No, the economy is not bouncing right back. Sports, the entertainment sector, restaurants and the tourist industry are not about to come bouncing right back because there is no magic date when we can say we are past the peak, it's OK to gather in big crowds, again. That cannot happen until there is widespread inoculation with an effective tested vaccine.

None of that part of the economy is coming back for a long time.

And all those people who work in those industries are going to be either scraping by on savings, shifting to other types of work, or on the government dole.

Many of them are going to be losing homes, defaulting on debts.

They are not going to have lots of money to spend to create demand. Nor will they be paying a lot of taxes on money made.

All of that is going to hurt the economy.

No way it is bouncing back to what it was any time soon.
 
Been to a craft show lately?

Nobody is going to go to a big crowd and go milling around looking at booths.

All of that part of the economy just died, and it will not be back until there is a vaccine.

Any region that tries to ignore this reality and has a big event will see a big spike in cases, hospitalizations and deaths a few weeks later.
 
PoliTalker said:
Any region that tries to ignore this reality and has a big event will see a big spike in cases, hospitalizations and deaths a few weeks later.
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The offer that can not be refused is ... losing your insurance coverage.

Any country that is NOT beholding to other countries can ignore the warnings ---but each is beholding to the other.

Playing chicken with a phantom knife will make everyone flinch. It ripples through the crowd.

Who's money trail should be examined?
 
floridafan said:
President Donald Trump is hoping to reopen the American economy in May and quickly get back to the low unemployment rates that he used to justify his claim that he’d created the “best economy” in history.

However, economists who spoke with Vox think that Trump’s vision of a rapid V-shaped economic recovery amid the COVID-19 pandemic are simply a pipe dream.

“The very best case scenario is we rapidly bounce back and we get close to something where we were before,” said Jesse Edgerton, an economist at JPMorgan. “Personally, I think that’s highly unlikely. The shock from the virus is going to trigger a broader economy-wide recession.”


Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, predicted that there would be “permanent damage” inflicted upon the economy that would further widen the gulf between rich and poor Americans.

“What this shock is doing is exacerbating preexisting inequality issues across the country,” he said. “The individuals who have been hit the hardest are the individuals who were in the most precarious position to start with.”

Claudia Sahm, director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, similarly said that people who worked at low-wage jobs will face the biggest struggles to recover.

“Wages are going to come out of the recovery worse than they were,” Sahm said. “Everything is going to be worse for workers who went into the recession in the most fragile position and there are a lot of them
Click to expand...

Things will only bounce back when people feel safe to go about. Until then you won't have anyone going to shows or out to dinner other than a carry-out even if stay in place ends. People's money is going to supplies. Many have been doing what is being told know long before things got serious.
 
There are many millions of people who have lost their jobs. They will not have the money to resume spending when the Covid threat ends. Is there anyone who does not think Trump will open too soon and people will die?
The economy recovers via demand and people without money do not generate it. It will be a slow process and there is no guarantee it will ever fully recover.
 
‘We’re Heading Into A Great Depression’


We’re not going to go back the way it was,” said Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio in the virtual TED talk. “We’re going to restructure our economy and restructure our financial system” over the next couple of years in order to recover.
Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has $160 billion in assets under management, making Dalio the 46th richest person in the world with an $18 billion net worth.
Dalio’s biggest worry is that restructuring will not be done in a civil, bipartisan way to “both increase the size of the pie and divide it well,” warning of partisan politics preventing effective solutions, “damaging”—rather than repairing—the economy.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexan...heading-into-a-great-depression/#3f5bde8e7c83
 
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