APP - Very good analysis of the mid terms

Teflon Don

Teflon Don

I'm back baby
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...lection/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.daef4d5f78a4

I agree with this analysis. All in all a net positive for Trump

By historical standards, the GOP should have lost a lot of seats in the House. Re gerrymandering in PA helped the dems as much as a slew of GOP retirements by NeverTrumpers. No excuses, it is what it is. But the GOP did not have the power of incumbency. Maybe those incumbents would have lost anyway, we will never know.

The one question I think will always dog the democrat party is Kavanaugh. Had it not been for their over the top actions could they have actually retaken the Senate? I think it is possible. But that is all speculation and one will never know.

All in all I think any President would be happy with last nights results. I am sure Obama would have been :)
 
The Blue Wave Failed said:
awesome article teflon. im going to go post this in current events
Click to expand...

With all of that said, there are some serious warning signs for the GOP particularly with GOTV efforts. They seriously lag behind democrats in that vain.

The warning sign for democrats is that they rely too much on unreliable voters. For example, Obama was able to bring out the black vote. Hillary could not. Gillum and Abrams drove up the black vote. Does that mean that democrats can only nominate black candidates from now on? No more whites?

Additionally they are making the mistake of counting on millennials who are voting liberal now staying that way throughout their lifetimes. It is a political fallacy that has carried on for years.

What makes me laugh is that you hear left wingers today bemoan the old voters who vote Republican and that they can't wait until they die off. It is almost as if they forget that these old voters they are lambasting now are actually Baby Boomers who were once very reliable democrat party voters.
 
I would mitigate the GOP turn out warning sign with the fact that usually the opposition party is always more motivated during midterms. while conservative opposition voters are usually more motivated in off years than liberal opposition in off years, liberal opposition will be more more motivated vs. conservative non-opposition in off years. i think.
 
Teflon Don said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...lection/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.daef4d5f78a4

I agree with this analysis. All in all a net positive for Trump

By historical standards, the GOP should have lost a lot of seats in the House. Re gerrymandering in PA helped the dems as much as a slew of GOP retirements by NeverTrumpers. No excuses, it is what it is. But the GOP did not have the power of incumbency. Maybe those incumbents would have lost anyway, we will never know.

The one question I think will always dog the democrat party is Kavanaugh. Had it not been for their over the top actions could they have actually retaken the Senate? I think it is possible. But that is all speculation and one will never know.

All in all I think any President would be happy with last nights results. I am sure Obama would have been :)
Click to expand...

The Senate is a reflection of the Electoral College, while the House is a reflection of the popular vote.
 
Dark Soul said:
The Senate is a reflection of the Electoral College, while the House is a reflection of the popular vote.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately the left got its way and changed how Senators are elected. We aren't really supposed to care about who gets elected to particular States
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top