What happens if ...

[Alik Bahshi]

Alik Bakhshi

What happens if …

For more than a month now, Israel has been waging a brutal war with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The political situation in the Middle East is tense, but no Arab country wants to get involved in a war with Israel, with the exception of Yemen, which declared war on Israel, believing that this would encourage countries neighboring Israel to follow. The most aggressive anti-Israel rhetoric comes from Iran and the pro-Iranian organization Hezbollah. True, Iran stated that it would respond to Israel if it attacked. It is clear that now is not the time to start a war with Iran. But the question is how Iran will behave if Hezbollah clashes with Israel, this means an inevitable war between Israel and Lebanon, and possibly Syria because Hezbollah is also present in Syria. Still, it is unlikely that Iran will directly involve itself in war. And there are reasons for this that are very dangerous for Iran, which is well understood in Tehran.

The fact is that the threats emanating towards Israel are needed by Iran to gain authority in the Islamic world, and not concern for the fate of the Arabs, in this case Palestine. Iran itself fought with the Arabs of Iraq for 8 years, and relations with Saudi Arabia are far from friendly. It should be noted that Iran has no relations at all with all the countries surrounding it, perhaps excluding Armenia. And in this regard, Iran is alone. From the point of view of the state structure, Iran is close to the totalitarian regimes of Russia and North Korea, however, neither Moscow nor Pyongyang will definitely help Iran in the war with Israel. And given the fact that America will definitely intervene, it is unlikely that the Tehran ayatollahs will risk losing their power, since military defeat is beyond doubt. Iran will have to defend itself from three sides: from the West by Israel and the US 6th Fleet, from the South (Persian Gulf) Iran will be attacked by the US 5th Fleet, and from the North by the Israeli air force based in Azerbaijan. If Iran attacks Azerbaijan in response, then it will also have to deal with Turkey as a country linked by a strategic alliance with Azerbaijan.

It is very likely that in the event of defeat, which is without options, the regime of Tehran obscurantists will fall. Moreover, it is possible that Southern Azerbaijan will reunite with Azerbaijan (1,2) and then the Zangezur corridor will lose its relevance. Tehran understands all this very well, so fears of an Iranian attack on Israel are in vain.

1. Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/13967.html
2. Political collisions and the fate of Azerbaijan. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/95510.html

07.11.2023

 

[T. A. Gardner]

Iran gains little by getting involved in a war with Israel. Iran has little in the way of means to effectively attack Israel and would have to use proxy forces like Hezbollah to do it for them. Given that Hezbollah as a military force is pretty pathetic in terms of capability outside firing masses of unguided rockets into Israel in quantities that ensure some leak through Israeli air defenses, it really has no means to do much of anything useful.

Iran just saw--or should have seen--that Israel has an theater ABM system in place so firing a ballistic missile or two at them stands only a very limited chance of actually working.

https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/...allistic-missile-in-space-for-the-first-time/

Israel, at the same time, has limited options to attack Iran directly. In fact, the most effective option for Israel is probably to target Iranian flag oil tankers, particularly one(s) flagged as part of the Iranian Navy.

Of course, they could go after civilian flagged Iranian tankers too.

Israel has 6 very advanced diesel submarines available and transiting one or more to the Persian Gulf would be no big deal for them.

While the Iranian Navy has little in the way of ASW assets they could effectively counter such a move with.

 

[Alik Bahshi]

So, despite the threats, Iran never carries them out. Iran's religious leaders understand that war does not bode well for them.

 

[Nordberg]

So, despite the threats, Iran never carries them out. Iran's religious leaders understand that war does not bode well for them.

Perhaps they are really religious. They are separate from the president.

 

[Alik Bahshi]

Perhaps they are really religious. They are separate from the president.

In Iran, the executive power is appointed by a religious leader of several people, and the people only elect one of this number.