What if Obamacare is voted down by the Supreme Court?

[cawacko]

From the MSNBC article, "“I think it’s very doubtful that court is going to find the health care law constitutional,” NBC’s Pete Williams reported after watching the two hours of oral argument before the high court. “I don’t see five votes to find the law constitutional.”


http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_n...over-constitutionality-of-health-care-mandate


What would happen next? I've read elsewhere that if the mandate is turned down and the rest of the law stays in effect then the insurance companies will not survive and we would rapidly turn to single payer which is constitutional. Is that possible?

 

[Don Quixote]

From the MSNBC article, "“I think it’s very doubtful that court is going to find the health care law constitutional,” NBC’s Pete Williams reported after watching the two hours of oral argument before the high court. “I don’t see five votes to find the law constitutional.”


http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_n...over-constitutionality-of-health-care-mandate


What would happen next? I've read elsewhere that if the mandate is turned down and the rest of the law stays in effect then the insurance companies will not survive and we would rapidly turn to single payer which is constitutional. Is that possible?

like mittens, the reps were for obama care/national health insurance before they were against it

it will be a dark day for the u s if it is struck down

 

[Onceler]

It's a good question; it's hard to imagine that they'd keep the rest of the law going if the mandate was ruled against. They'd really have to repeal it & go back to the drawing board.

The law doesn't work w/out the mandate.

 

[Bonestorm]

From the MSNBC article, "“I think it’s very doubtful that court is going to find the health care law constitutional,” NBC’s Pete Williams reported after watching the two hours of oral argument before the high court. “I don’t see five votes to find the law constitutional.”


http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_n...over-constitutionality-of-health-care-mandate


What would happen next? I've read elsewhere that if the mandate is turned down and the rest of the law stays in effect then the insurance companies will not survive and we would rapidly turn to single payer which is constitutional. Is that possible?

Not sure what would happen if it is struck down, but wanted to note that trying to predict the outcome of a case based on oral argument is a fool's game. This isn't to say that oral argument is irrelevant, it's just that you have no idea what the justices are thinking or why they are asking the questions they are asking (or not asking questions you might have expected them to ask).

 

[PostmodernProphet]

it will be a dark day for the u s if it is struck down

a dark day for Obama, at least.....his only legacy will be closing Gitmo.....oops....

 

[Phantasmal]

From the MSNBC article, "“I think it’s very doubtful that court is going to find the health care law constitutional,” NBC’s Pete Williams reported after watching the two hours of oral argument before the high court. “I don’t see five votes to find the law constitutional.”


http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_n...over-constitutionality-of-health-care-mandate


What would happen next? I've read elsewhere that if the mandate is turned down and the rest of the law stays in effect then the insurance companies will not survive and we would rapidly turn to single payer which is constitutional. Is that possible?

I hope singe payer is the way we go!

 

[Phantasmal]

It's a good question; it's hard to imagine that they'd keep the rest of the law going if the mandate was ruled against. They'd really have to repeal it & go back to the drawing board.

The law doesn't work w/out the mandate.

People like arts of the law, the pre-existing condition and the kids being on mom and dad's policies, so I think a restructure is what they had in mind all along.

 

[SmarterthanYou]

it sounds like the court will at least strike down the mandate, which is a damn fine thing. the uproar in this country over being forced to purchase a product or service would have torn it apart.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

From the MSNBC article, "“I think it’s very doubtful that court is going to find the health care law constitutional,” NBC’s Pete Williams reported after watching the two hours of oral argument before the high court. “I don’t see five votes to find the law constitutional.”


http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_n...over-constitutionality-of-health-care-mandate


What would happen next? I've read elsewhere that if the mandate is turned down and the rest of the law stays in effect then the insurance companies will not survive and we would rapidly turn to single payer which is constitutional. Is that possible?

The line I've heard is that there's an 85% chance of the law being upheld due to legal precedent and the main argument by the defense that the universal mandate is consitutional under the commerce clause of the Constitution. If the universal mandate is found to be unconstitutional then much of it will stand. I believe the prohibition against pre-existing conditions and caps will stand as will the expansion of medicare under PPACA. I also believe that health exchanges created under the act will stand (and quite frankly I see those as becoming very popular with both parties and the States). One important aspect of the PPACA that should stand will be the new reporting requirements. This will help provide a solid data base for determining the efficacy of a lot of treatments and modalities that are currently not known. This will help a lot at controling costs.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Not sure what would happen if it is struck down, but wanted to note that trying to predict the outcome of a case based on oral argument is a fool's game. This isn't to say that oral argument is irrelevant, it's just that you have no idea what the justices are thinking or why they are asking the questions they are asking (or not asking questions you might have expected them to ask).

Agreed. Though it doesn't look from where we sit and based on precedent that they would overturn the PPACA but similiar things were said about Citizens United and they did rule in favor of Citizens United (IMHO the worst SCOTUS ruling since Dred Scott.).

 

[Mott the Hoople]

it sounds like the court will at least strike down the mandate, which is a damn fine thing. the uproar in this country over being forced to purchase a product or service would have torn it apart.

Shows what you know. Since EVERYONE willl at one time or another become a health care consumer then such a mandate falls well into Constitutionality under the commerce clause. The odds of that being struck down on a constitutional basis are pretty much a long shot.

 

[Jarod]

From the MSNBC article, "“I think it’s very doubtful that court is going to find the health care law constitutional,” NBC’s Pete Williams reported after watching the two hours of oral argument before the high court. “I don’t see five votes to find the law constitutional.”


http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_n...over-constitutionality-of-health-care-mandate




What would happen next? I've read elsewhere that if the mandate is turned down and the rest of the law stays in effect then the insurance companies will not survive and we would rapidly turn to single payer which is constitutional. Is that possible?

I guess Ill lose my health insurance.

 

[Granule]

like mittens, the reps were for obama care/national health insurance before they were against it

it will be a dark day for the u s if it is struck down

And a bright day for the future USSA if it isn't?

 

[Bonestorm]

And a bright day for the future USSA if it isn't?

I suppose the funniest thing about this comment is that if the law were closer to Soshulism then the arguments against it would be much much much weaker. I mean, no one argues that Medicare, where the government taxes people and then pays for their medical care, is unconstitutional. If ObamaCare worked the same way, tax people and give them insurance, there wouldn't be much of an argument against it. But that'd be too easy. Instead, they developed this convoluted system of mandates and taxes and penalties and exchanges and subsidies that is much more susceptible to constitutional attack.

 

[SmarterthanYou]

Shows what you know. Since EVERYONE willl at one time or another become a health care consumer then such a mandate falls well into Constitutionality under the commerce clause. The odds of that being struck down on a constitutional basis are pretty much a long shot.

roberts had the exact right question to show that the mandate fails constitutional muster, and that is can congress mandate buying a cellphone for 911 services anywhere. or as I said months ago, a gun for self defense purposes. or a rifle for defending the country. can congress then mandate military service for everyone to ensure national security?

 

[Damocles]

like mittens, the reps were for obama care/national health insurance before they were against it

it will be a dark day for the u s if it is struck down

Doom and destruction. Seriously?

It just means you try again, this time without demanding the land of the free just do as you say or be punished... do it now!

 

[Damocles]

I suppose the funniest thing about this comment is that if the law were closer to Soshulism then the arguments against it would be much much much weaker. I mean, no one argues that Medicare, where the government taxes people and then pays for their medical care, is unconstitutional. If ObamaCare worked the same way, tax people and give them insurance, there wouldn't be much of an argument against it. But that'd be too easy. Instead, they developed this convoluted system of mandates and taxes and penalties and exchanges and subsidies that is much more susceptible to constitutional attack.

Even more ironic. IMO, if they had included the government option I don't think it would be unconstitutional. It's the "you buy this or else" that is causing all the issues.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

roberts had the exact right question to show that the mandate fails constitutional muster, and that is can congress mandate buying a cellphone for 911 services anywhere. or as I said months ago, a gun for self defense purposes. or a rifle for defending the country. can congress then mandate military service for everyone to ensure national security?

Ehhh wrong. Apples and Oranges. Not EVERYONE enters into the cell phone market. EVERYONE enters into the health care market. Not a valid comparison.

It's foolish trying to play the guessing game on how SCOTUS would rule. Precedence is clearly in favor of their upholding the constitutionality of the universal mandate. Just precedence was clearly in favor of SCOTUS ruling against Citizens United but they didn't rule against Citizens United, did they?

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Even more ironic. IMO, if they had included the government option I don't think it would be unconstitutional. It's the "you buy this or else" that is causing all the issues.

So how do you reform our HC system with out a universal mandate? Considering that is what all the modern industrialized nations of the world do?

 

[Airstrip One]

Agreed. Though it doesn't look from where we sit and based on precedent that they would overturn the PPACA but similiar things were said about Citizens United and they did rule in favor of Citizens United (IMHO the worst SCOTUS ruling since Dred Scott.).

You're forgetting Kelo.