APP - What if the polls are RIGHT and WRONG?

[Teflon Don]

I know that sounds like a crazy statement, but as always, I will have a very thoughtful response.

I am an ardent watcher of polling data. When available I dig into the internals. When not available, I ignore the poll.

When looking at the polls today, it spells potential doom for Trump. There are many likely voter polls that have Trump losing to Sleepy Gropin Joe.

But when I dig into the internals, Trump is getting record approval with hispanics and black voters. It remains to be seen if that will translate into actual votes, so we will see.

So, what I mean is what if the polls are right with regards to what they are measuring, but what if they are wrong in that they are measuring the wrong thing? What if there is a political re-ordering taking place that the pollsters just aren't catching?

We will find out in a month

 

[T. A. Gardner]

I see that here with Hispanics. Most won't be voting Democrat that I talk to. I also see the large number of rallies and other public displays for Trump while Biden-Harris signs, let alone any sort of get together, are nonexistent. A couple locally on Nextdoor put up a note for support for local proposition 208 that will tax the snot out of the rich and small business owners to hand more money to the public school system after they got a huge increase two years ago. They got absolutely slammed by virtually everyone that responded to them. You could tell they were stunned by how negative the response was. This proposition is a heavy Democrat favorite here and it looks like it's doomed. The "Only the rich are getting taxed..." line isn't playing well with the public.

So, I'm not too sure the polling is on target. It certainly wasn't last presidential election. I think a good part of the problem is that the pollsters haven't changed their methodology in light of people moving heavily to smart phones. The problem with those is that the area code attached to many isn't the place the person owning the phone is actually living and will be voting. It's really screwing up the results. I also think that unlike in the past, today people can screen calls and see who's calling without answering and many people will simply ignore the call.