When will Social Security run out of money, if nothing is fixed?

Diogenes

Nemo me impune lacessit
Based on the most recent projections from the Social Security trustees' report released in May 2024, the Social Security trust fund reserves are expected to be depleted in 2035.


This applies to the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds, often referred to as OASDI.


After this point, without congressional action, the program would only be able to pay about 83% of scheduled benefits, relying solely on ongoing payroll tax revenue.


The OASI Trust Fund, which covers retirement and survivor benefits, is projected to run out earlier, in 2033, at which point it could pay 79% of scheduled benefits.


The DI Trust Fund, which pays disability benefits, is in a stronger position and is expected to remain solvent through at least 2098, the end of the 75-year projection period.


These dates are estimates based on intermediate assumptions about demographic trends, economic conditions, and program-specific factors.


Congress could address this shortfall through measures like raising payroll taxes, adjusting benefits, or redirecting other revenue, as it has done historically—most notably in 1983 when bipartisan reforms extended the program's solvency.


Without such changes, the funds will gradually deplete over the next decade, leading to reduced benefits starting in 2035.



@Grok
 
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