WW analysis: comparing post count of last 2 werewolf games, role evaluation

BRUTALITOPS

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Here are side by side comparisons of the total post count of both games:

hl23D.png


granted, this includes a bit of post-game talk, but look how staggeringly close both games are.

Here is the post count for individuals, first, proles v. trolls I:

iMClb.png


and proles v. trolls II:

iYjHs.png


obviously these differ based on who died at what point

And now some brief analysis :)
I think both games were reletively the same length. both games had 4 game days (weekends in both I think, but if not, weekend posting is usually lower anyway that it probably doesn't change a lot)

Darla
Look at part II, see how much darla posted as a villager? Now look at Part I, where she was a wolf. It appears she is middle of the pack of posting frequency, but keep in mind, that's stretched out over multiple days due to a wolf sweep. She was alive ~4 days, so her posting was about ~25 a day compared to 140 as a villager.

her posting is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay lower as wolf.

Damocles
Wolfdamo comes out slightly ahead in PartI as well with 98 posts vs. 68 this game. Damo was slightly busier this round so that's probably a natural drop, but still puts him in the same ballpark. Also note that he almost has the exact same amount of posts as wolf darla in PartI. (98/108 respectively). They were likely mirroring each other and posting around the same times, and responding to the same posts.

Damo is sort of a middle of the pack type of player in terms of posting frequency. Probably around the same in either role.

Yurt

Yurt is a bit interesting. He was one of the highest posters period in his wolf game with 168. that's about...~40 posts a day as a wolf vs. 30 as a villa this game. I do think yurt was phoning it in a bit this game, so I think his posting frequency is relatively balanced in either role. Good to know.

It's also worthy to note that damo and darla were more passive in that game, so it makes sense that at least one wolf was out in front. So that could affect things too.

Based on this data, it also shows that yurt isn't afraid to get into the trenches as a wolf. This could also mean he likes forcing the issue, is a more aggressive style of player, and isn't the type of wolf to take a back seat to the action. Yurt is much more likely to drive the action as a wolf. But, this is semi-balanced as he gets in the dirt as a villager too. He's aggressive in either role.

USfreedom

usfreedom was killed the first day in PARTI, and he had 70 posts. His wolf game he had 120 over 4 game days. you do the math. USfreedom posted at almost DOUBLE the rate as villa than he did as a wolf.

Watermark

Watermark came in at at around 70 villa and 50 as a wolf. slight dip but not too much. basically watermark is always inactive -_-. His activity is role neutral

3D

3d comes in at 106 and 102. both games were relatively similar in length. so again, his posting ends up being pretty consistent as a villager. I don't know where he died though so that might affect things. too lazy. I think he lived to the end though in both?

##################

Not going to compare everyones games, the most important contrast is the wolf/village game style differences.

Most of the time, wolves post less. (this shouldn't really be surprising to anyone that's paid attention for a while) Wolves (generally speaking) are more scared to make reads, they have to THINK more about their answers because they don't want to be caught, whereas villagers just let it all flow out. It's also much harder to consistently LIE when you have perfect knowledge of the game. You have to spend time creating a narrative, figuring out who you want alive for a while, who you want to set up for a kill, and all of this plays into wolves usually posting less.

Is post count everything? Nope. Is it something? yes.

Granted every game is different, and dynamics can shift, but I've noticed this pattern a lot.

Now obviously, after seeing this, wolves may try to adjust their games. So take it as is :)
 
Last edited:
Here are side by side comparisons of the total post count of both games:

hl23D.png


granted, this includes a bit of post-game talk, but look how staggeringly close both games are.

Here is the post count for individuals, first, proles v. trolls I:

iMClb.png


and proles v. trolls II:

iYjHs.png


obviously these differ based on who died at what point

And now some brief analysis :)
I think both games were reletively the same length. both games had 4 game days (weekends in both I think, but if not, weekend posting is usually lower anyway that it probably doesn't change a lot)

Darla
Look at part II, see how much darla posted as a villager? Now look at Part I, where she was a wolf. It appears she is middle of the pack of posting frequency, but keep in mind, that's stretched out over multiple days due to a wolf sweep. She was alive ~4 days, so her posting was about ~25 a day compared to 140 as a villager.

her posting is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay lower as wolf.

Damocles
Wolfdamo comes out slightly ahead in PartI as well with 98 posts vs. 68 this game. Damo was slightly busier this round so that's probably a natural drop, but still puts him in the same ballpark. Also note that he almost has the exact same amount of posts as wolf darla in PartI. (98/108 respectively). They were likely mirroring each other and posting around the same times, and responding to the same posts.

Damo is sort of a middle of the pack type of player in terms of posting frequency. Probably around the same in either role.

Yurt

Yurt is a bit interesting. He was one of the highest posters period in his wolf game with 168. that's about...~40 posts a day as a wolf vs. 30 as a villa this game. I do think yurt was phoning it in a bit this game, so I think his posting frequency is relatively balanced in either role. Good to know.

It's also worthy to note that damo and darla were more passive in that game, so it makes sense that at least one wolf was out in front. So that could affect things too.

Based on this data, it also shows that yurt isn't afraid to get into the trenches as a wolf. This could also mean he likes forcing the issue, is a more aggressive style of player, and isn't the type of wolf to take a back seat to the action. Yurt is much more likely to drive the action as a wolf. But, this is semi-balanced as he gets in the dirt as a villager too. He's aggressive in either role.

USfreedom

usfreedom was killed the first day in PARTI, and he had 70 posts. His wolf game he had 120 over 4 game days. you do the math. USfreedom posted at almost DOUBLE the rate as villa than he did as a wolf.

Watermark

Watermark came in at at around 70 villa and 50 as a wolf. slight dip but not too much. basically watermark is always inactive -_-. His activity is role neutral

3D

3d comes in at 106 and 102. both games were relatively similar in length. so again, his posting ends up being pretty consistent as a villager. I don't know where he died though so that might affect things. too lazy. I think he lived to the end though in both?

##################

Not going to compare everyones games, the most important contrast is the wolf/village game style differences.

Most of the time, wolves post less. (this shouldn't really be surprising to anyone that's paid attention for a while) Wolves (generally speaking) are more scared to make reads, they have to THINK more about their answers because they don't want to be caught, whereas villagers just let it all flow out. It's also much harder to consistently LIE when you have perfect knowledge of the game. You have to spend time creating a narrative, figuring out who you want alive for a while, who you want to set up for a kill, and all of this plays into wolves usually posting less.

Is post count everything? Nope. Is it something? yes.

Granted every game is different, and dynamics can shift, but I've noticed this pattern a lot.

Now obviously, after seeing this, wolves may try to adjust their games. So take it as is :)

Allow me to throw a monkey wrench, in the middle of all your hard work.
You forgot to take into account, when players died.
If the game lasted 5 days and they died on Day 3, then there total count per game is going to be off from someone that lasted the entire game or someone who died on Day 1.

Your welcome. :D
 
Allow me to throw a monkey wrench, in the middle of all your hard work.
You forgot to take into account, when players died.
If the game lasted 5 days and they died on Day 3, then there total count per game is going to be off from someone that lasted the entire game or someone who died on Day 1.

Your welcome. :D

uhh, no, you'll notice i did talk about when people died.
 
Here are side by side comparisons of the total post count of both games:

hl23D.png


granted, this includes a bit of post-game talk, but look how staggeringly close both games are.

Here is the post count for individuals, first, proles v. trolls I:

iMClb.png


and proles v. trolls II:

iYjHs.png


obviously these differ based on who died at what point

And now some brief analysis :)
I think both games were reletively the same length. both games had 4 game days (weekends in both I think, but if not, weekend posting is usually lower anyway that it probably doesn't change a lot)

Darla
Look at part II, see how much darla posted as a villager? Now look at Part I, where she was a wolf. It appears she is middle of the pack of posting frequency, but keep in mind, that's stretched out over multiple days due to a wolf sweep. She was alive ~4 days, so her posting was about ~25 a day compared to 140 as a villager.

her posting is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay lower as wolf.

Damocles
Wolfdamo comes out slightly ahead in PartI as well with 98 posts vs. 68 this game. Damo was slightly busier this round so that's probably a natural drop, but still puts him in the same ballpark. Also note that he almost has the exact same amount of posts as wolf darla in PartI. (98/108 respectively). They were likely mirroring each other and posting around the same times, and responding to the same posts.

Damo is sort of a middle of the pack type of player in terms of posting frequency. Probably around the same in either role.

Yurt

Yurt is a bit interesting. He was one of the highest posters period in his wolf game with 168. that's about...~40 posts a day as a wolf vs. 30 as a villa this game. I do think yurt was phoning it in a bit this game, so I think his posting frequency is relatively balanced in either role. Good to know.

It's also worthy to note that damo and darla were more passive in that game, so it makes sense that at least one wolf was out in front. So that could affect things too.

Based on this data, it also shows that yurt isn't afraid to get into the trenches as a wolf. This could also mean he likes forcing the issue, is a more aggressive style of player, and isn't the type of wolf to take a back seat to the action. Yurt is much more likely to drive the action as a wolf. But, this is semi-balanced as he gets in the dirt as a villager too. He's aggressive in either role.

USfreedom

usfreedom was killed the first day in PARTI, and he had 70 posts. His wolf game he had 120 over 4 game days. you do the math. USfreedom posted at almost DOUBLE the rate as villa than he did as a wolf.

Watermark

Watermark came in at at around 70 villa and 50 as a wolf. slight dip but not too much. basically watermark is always inactive -_-. His activity is role neutral

3D

3d comes in at 106 and 102. both games were relatively similar in length. so again, his posting ends up being pretty consistent as a villager. I don't know where he died though so that might affect things. too lazy. I think he lived to the end though in both?

##################

Not going to compare everyones games, the most important contrast is the wolf/village game style differences.

Most of the time, wolves post less. (this shouldn't really be surprising to anyone that's paid attention for a while) Wolves (generally speaking) are more scared to make reads, they have to THINK more about their answers because they don't want to be caught, whereas villagers just let it all flow out. It's also much harder to consistently LIE when you have perfect knowledge of the game. You have to spend time creating a narrative, figuring out who you want alive for a while, who you want to set up for a kill, and all of this plays into wolves usually posting less.

Is post count everything? Nope. Is it something? yes.

Granted every game is different, and dynamics can shift, but I've noticed this pattern a lot.

Now obviously, after seeing this, wolves may try to adjust their games. So take it as is :)

Thanks that was interesting and enlightening.
 
usfree i averaged out points per day. also for a few it was very easy as damo lived about the same length both times, and darlas disperity is so huge it wouldn't even matter much.
 
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