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Larry's article can be seen here:
Quoting from the introduction and the conclusion of Larry's article:
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13 April 2025 by Larry C. Johnson 135 Comments
During his recent testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, General Christopher Cavoli presented a master class in turd polishing. If you listened to his testimony, or read the transcript, you would be inclined to believe that Ukraine is fighting Russia to a stalemate. That is wrong. First, let’s review a summary of the lowlights from Cavoli’s testimony:
Ukrainian Adaptation and Progress: Cavoli highlighted Ukraine’s significant military adaptation, including transitioning from Soviet-era artillery systems to NATO-standard systems under wartime conditions. He described this as “extremely impressive” and emphasized that Ukraine is now in a stronger defensive position compared to earlier stages of the war. What Cavoli should have said is the following: Ukraine is totally on the defensive now and has been unable to mount and sustain a successful counter offensive.
Effectiveness of U.S. Aid: Give yourself a big, old pat-on-the-ass General. Cavoli underscored Ukraine’s heavy reliance on U.S. support, particularly for advanced anti-aircraft systems and intelligence. And he noted that U.S.-supplied long-range missiles like ATACMS have been “extremely effective,” though he reserved detailed assessments for closed sessions due to intelligence concerns. Extremely effective? As measured by what benchmark or standard? I think Cavoli was auditioning for his next job in the military industrial complex. This is some highly professional ass-kissing. The ATACMS are impotent against the Russian advance.
Battlefield Update: Shades of Bojangles. Cavoli did some fancy tap dancing when he provided an optimistic update on the battlefield. Cavoli reported that Ukraine has improved its manpower and defensive capabilities, while Russian forces are increasingly reliant on infantry assaults due to equipment shortages. This is just a blatant lie. In fact, as noted in the next paragraph, Cavoli made some startling admissions about the disparity between the poorly supplied Ukrainians and the industrial might of Russia.
Russian Challenges: Cavoli pointed out that Russia has suffered massive losses, including approximately 4,000 tanks, and that while it has shown some technical adaptations, the overall effectiveness of its ground forces is declining. Yet, in the very next sentence in his written testimony, he conceded that Russia had replaced all of its lost tanks and was outproducing the United States by a factor of 30-to-1.
With respect to Cavoli’s specious claim that Russia’s ground-force capability is declining, let me present you with the facts. In 2024, Ukraine mounted one offensive where they briefly captured Russian territory in the Kursk oblast, and put themselves in the crosshairs of a massive, sustained Russian counterattack. Ukraine’s zenith of territory controlled was in September 2024. By November 2024, Ukraine had lost more than 40% of the land it initially occupied in Kursk. At the end of March 2025, Ukraine, after suffering massive losses of men and equipment, was isolated in two small hamlets on the southernmost tip of Kursk, and had been effectively expelled from Kursk.
Apart from some meaningless raids into the fringes of Belgorod in 2025, Ukraine has failed to mount and sustain an offensive against Russian forces.
How about the Russians? Take a gander at the list of the towns, villages and cities Russia has captured since January 2024:
[snip]
Not bad for an army that Cavoli insists, is deteriorating with each passing day. As my friend, Andrei Martyanov frequently notes, wars are not won by simply capturing and holding on to territory. Yes, it can be a valuable metric, but the critical question is always logistics and supplies. No matter how the West tries to polish the turd that is Ukraine, the Ukrainians lack the manpower, the weapons and the industrial capability to produce weapons and ammunition required to stop the Russian advances all along the line of contact.
The sooner the members of the US Congress, as well as President Trump, understand this basic fact, and pull the plug on any additional US material and intelligence support to Ukraine, the quicker we will see the end to the war. As long as the US and Western Europe continue to encourage Ukraine to stay in the fight, more Ukrainian soldiers will die and Russia will control more Ukrainian territory. At this point, it is a math problem… solve it! It also, in my opinion, makes Trump and the Europeans complicit in the needless deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.
I just stumbled across a video that Danny Davis posted today that is relevant to our discussion:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5DG-tnGgr4&t=14s&ab_channel=DanielDavis%2FDeepDive
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Quoting from the introduction and the conclusion of Larry's article:
**
13 April 2025 by Larry C. Johnson 135 Comments

During his recent testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, General Christopher Cavoli presented a master class in turd polishing. If you listened to his testimony, or read the transcript, you would be inclined to believe that Ukraine is fighting Russia to a stalemate. That is wrong. First, let’s review a summary of the lowlights from Cavoli’s testimony:
Ukrainian Adaptation and Progress: Cavoli highlighted Ukraine’s significant military adaptation, including transitioning from Soviet-era artillery systems to NATO-standard systems under wartime conditions. He described this as “extremely impressive” and emphasized that Ukraine is now in a stronger defensive position compared to earlier stages of the war. What Cavoli should have said is the following: Ukraine is totally on the defensive now and has been unable to mount and sustain a successful counter offensive.
Effectiveness of U.S. Aid: Give yourself a big, old pat-on-the-ass General. Cavoli underscored Ukraine’s heavy reliance on U.S. support, particularly for advanced anti-aircraft systems and intelligence. And he noted that U.S.-supplied long-range missiles like ATACMS have been “extremely effective,” though he reserved detailed assessments for closed sessions due to intelligence concerns. Extremely effective? As measured by what benchmark or standard? I think Cavoli was auditioning for his next job in the military industrial complex. This is some highly professional ass-kissing. The ATACMS are impotent against the Russian advance.
Battlefield Update: Shades of Bojangles. Cavoli did some fancy tap dancing when he provided an optimistic update on the battlefield. Cavoli reported that Ukraine has improved its manpower and defensive capabilities, while Russian forces are increasingly reliant on infantry assaults due to equipment shortages. This is just a blatant lie. In fact, as noted in the next paragraph, Cavoli made some startling admissions about the disparity between the poorly supplied Ukrainians and the industrial might of Russia.
Russian Challenges: Cavoli pointed out that Russia has suffered massive losses, including approximately 4,000 tanks, and that while it has shown some technical adaptations, the overall effectiveness of its ground forces is declining. Yet, in the very next sentence in his written testimony, he conceded that Russia had replaced all of its lost tanks and was outproducing the United States by a factor of 30-to-1.
With respect to Cavoli’s specious claim that Russia’s ground-force capability is declining, let me present you with the facts. In 2024, Ukraine mounted one offensive where they briefly captured Russian territory in the Kursk oblast, and put themselves in the crosshairs of a massive, sustained Russian counterattack. Ukraine’s zenith of territory controlled was in September 2024. By November 2024, Ukraine had lost more than 40% of the land it initially occupied in Kursk. At the end of March 2025, Ukraine, after suffering massive losses of men and equipment, was isolated in two small hamlets on the southernmost tip of Kursk, and had been effectively expelled from Kursk.
Apart from some meaningless raids into the fringes of Belgorod in 2025, Ukraine has failed to mount and sustain an offensive against Russian forces.
How about the Russians? Take a gander at the list of the towns, villages and cities Russia has captured since January 2024:
[snip]
January 2025
- Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk Oblast): Captured after a prolonged battle.
- Yantarne (southwest of Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast).
- Kalynove (Kharkiv Oblast).
- Zelene (south of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast).
February 2025
- Krymske (northeast of Toretsk).
March 2025
- Sudzha (Kursk Oblast): Recaptured by Russian forces after heavy fighting.
- Additional settlements in Kursk Oblast: Kazachya Loknya, 1st Knyazhiy, 2nd Knyazhiy, Zamostye, and Mirny.
April 2025
- Zhuravka (Sumy region): Captured by Russian forces.
Not bad for an army that Cavoli insists, is deteriorating with each passing day. As my friend, Andrei Martyanov frequently notes, wars are not won by simply capturing and holding on to territory. Yes, it can be a valuable metric, but the critical question is always logistics and supplies. No matter how the West tries to polish the turd that is Ukraine, the Ukrainians lack the manpower, the weapons and the industrial capability to produce weapons and ammunition required to stop the Russian advances all along the line of contact.
The sooner the members of the US Congress, as well as President Trump, understand this basic fact, and pull the plug on any additional US material and intelligence support to Ukraine, the quicker we will see the end to the war. As long as the US and Western Europe continue to encourage Ukraine to stay in the fight, more Ukrainian soldiers will die and Russia will control more Ukrainian territory. At this point, it is a math problem… solve it! It also, in my opinion, makes Trump and the Europeans complicit in the needless deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.
I just stumbled across a video that Danny Davis posted today that is relevant to our discussion:
**