anyone recall 2004?

Cancel 2016.2

Cancel 2016.2

The Almighty
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Were the polls this widespread on average? We have the Gallup at Obama +2 on the low end and Obama +15 from Pew on the high end.

As I have said in the past, I tend to trust a combo of Rasmussen and Gallup, though now Gallup seems to be on the low end... so now I am questioning how they dropped 3 full points in a day.

I understand the margin of error allows for this to occur, but it still is not something you would normally see.

Bottom line... mainly just curious if anyone recalls there being such a disparity in the polls back in 2004.
 
may have something to do with the Bradley effect... tho i think any effect will be offset with a larger then average voting pool.
 
The polls definitely didn't have this much disparity, but I think the pollsters are all using different methods now; some are trying to account for increased registration & some aren't; some are trying to account for cell phone users & some aren't; some are factoring in higher turnout for blacks & youth, and some aren't.

This one's a real crapshoot for pollsters. The only thing they agree on is that Obama is winning; still, a close McCain win wouldn't shock me totally on election day, given other variables.
 
Onceler said:
The polls definitely didn't have this much disparity, but I think the pollsters are all using different methods now; some are trying to account for increased registration & some aren't; some are trying to account for cell phone users & some aren't; some are factoring in higher turnout for blacks & youth, and some aren't.

This one's a real crapshoot for pollsters. The only thing they agree on is that Obama is winning; still, a close McCain win wouldn't shock me totally on election day, given other variables.
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thanks... very good points.
 
Dungheap said:
You're looking at the wrong Gallup. Drudged?
Click to expand...

Um... I provided the link to all the polls. I was looking at the traditional Gallup poll given that it is currently the lowest and I wanted to quote the lowest and highest in the range.

I would guess the "expanded" Gallup poll is trying to account for some of the variables Lorax mentioned.
 
Superfreak said:
Um... I provided the link to all the polls. I was looking at the traditional Gallup poll given that it is currently the lowest and I wanted to quote the lowest and highest in the range.

I would guess the "expanded" Gallup poll is trying to account for some of the variables Lorax mentioned.
Click to expand...


Fair enough. I assumed and, predictably, am an ass. You are unscathed contrary to the adage.

The expanded Gallup is the one that most people have been referring to over the course of this election. About a week or two ago Drudge suddenly discovered that Gallup was using two different likely voter models, the traditional and the expanded. Under the traditional the spread has always been lower than under the expanded but Drudge trumpeted a headline misrepresenting that the Gallup poll now suddenly showed a tightening race when, in fact, he was comparing the traditional model to the expanded model. Many readers may not have picked up on that difference. I thought maybe you were one of those readers (someone posted something along the lines of "Gallup now at 2 point spread at some point).

Having said all that, the discrepancies in the polls are the different likely voter identification systems. If you want to knwo which polls to trust and which to discount I'd go here:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster ratings

The guys that run fivethirtyeight are pretty hardcore poll junkies and know what they're talking about.
 
Onceler said:
The polls definitely didn't have this much disparity, but I think the pollsters are all using different methods now; some are trying to account for increased registration & some aren't; some are trying to account for cell phone users & some aren't; some are factoring in higher turnout for blacks & youth, and some aren't.

This one's a real crapshoot for pollsters. The only thing they agree on is that Obama is winning; still, a close McCain win wouldn't shock me totally on election day, given other variables.
Click to expand...

I would be mildly surprised if McCain pulled it out at this point. Not shocked but mildly surprised. I just can't see him winning. I have been trying to tell my wife not to expect a miracle so she won't be so upset when Obama wins.
 
leaningright said:
I would be mildly surprised if McCain pulled it out at this point. Not shocked but mildly surprised. I just can't see him winning. I have been trying to tell my wife not to expect a miracle so she won't be so upset when Obama wins.
Click to expand...

Hey, you can't win 'em all. The GOP has won the last 2 Presidentials by very close margins; if they win again, it will almost definitely be another squeaker, which will be a lot tougher for Dems to handle at this point than it would be for conservatives.

If I'm conservative, I'm seeing a real silver lining on McCain losing. To start with, he'll be no champion of conservatism; a McCain win would surely lead to even bigger majorities for Dems in the '10 mid-term, and probably a Dem win in 2012, unless he really shocks everyone & can turn this thing around quickly. Frankly, I don't see him as having the ideas to do it.

If Obama is as bad as conservatives seem to think, it will ultimately be very good for the conservative cause; I don't think he will be, but if I was a conservative, that's how I'd be thinking...
 
leaningright said:
I would be mildly surprised if McCain pulled it out at this point. Not shocked but mildly surprised. I just can't see him winning. I have been trying to tell my wife not to expect a miracle so she won't be so upset when Obama wins.
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why would she be so upset, did she feel entitled to the white house for her entire lifetime?
 
leaningright said:
I would be mildly surprised if McCain pulled it out at this point. Not shocked but mildly surprised. I just can't see him winning. I have been trying to tell my wife not to expect a miracle so she won't be so upset when Obama wins.
Click to expand...
I've been saying this until I saw the most recent polling in CO. It's gone from 7 points for Obama, to 5 points for Obama, to just over 2 points for Obama....

That is one closing gap.

It's getting really close in CO.
 
Damocles said:
I've been saying this until I saw the most recent polling in CO. It's gone from 7 points for Obama, to 5 points for Obama, to just over 2 points for Obama....

That is one closing gap.

It's getting really close in CO.
Click to expand...


What polls are you looking at? Everything I've seen has shown a 5-12% range.
 
Dungheap said:
Fair enough. I assumed and, predictably, am an ass. You are unscathed contrary to the adage.

The expanded Gallup is the one that most people have been referring to over the course of this election. About a week or two ago Drudge suddenly discovered that Gallup was using two different likely voter models, the traditional and the expanded. Under the traditional the spread has always been lower than under the expanded but Drudge trumpeted a headline misrepresenting that the Gallup poll now suddenly showed a tightening race when, in fact, he was comparing the traditional model to the expanded model. Many readers may not have picked up on that difference. I thought maybe you were one of those readers (someone posted something along the lines of "Gallup now at 2 point spread at some point).

Having said all that, the discrepancies in the polls are the different likely voter identification systems. If you want to knwo which polls to trust and which to discount I'd go here:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster ratings

The guys that run fivethirtyeight are pretty hardcore poll junkies and know what they're talking about.
Click to expand...


you sure about that? To be clear, I am not sure.... but I thought it was the other way around. The traditional Gallup is the format they have always used and the expanded is something they just brought out a couple months ago.

Is that wrong?
 
Onceler said:
Hey, you can't win 'em all. The GOP has won the last 2 Presidentials by very close margins; if they win again, it will almost definitely be another squeaker, which will be a lot tougher for Dems to handle at this point than it would be for conservatives.

If I'm conservative, I'm seeing a real silver lining on McCain losing. To start with, he'll be no champion of conservatism; a McCain win would surely lead to even bigger majorities for Dems in the '10 mid-term, and probably a Dem win in 2012, unless he really shocks everyone & can turn this thing around quickly. Frankly, I don't see him as having the ideas to do it.

If Obama is as bad as conservatives seem to think, it will ultimately be very good for the conservative cause; I don't think he will be, but if I was a conservative, that's how I'd be thinking...
Click to expand...

I understand. And if I thought there was much difference (in areas of importance to me) between the two I wouldn't be putting up my protest vote. I am at the point right now that I really don't care (see post on Fed's arrest Mass. Senator.... thread) and will just be glad when it is over and I can get the wife to concentrate more on football.
 
Damocles said:
I've been saying this until I saw the most recent polling in CO. It's gone from 7 points for Obama, to 5 points for Obama, to just over 2 points for Obama....

That is one closing gap.

It's getting really close in CO.
Click to expand...

You know I really hope you believe this. I know you’ve got everyone fooled, but not me. I know you’re hard thinking about this. I hope you keep it out until election night, fool.

I hope all of the repukes, but most especially the closet repukes, really believe that the race is tightening.

God, I hope you believe it.

i want to see you fuckers cry.
 
Darla said:
why would she be so upset, did she feel entitled to the white house for her entire lifetime?
Click to expand...

Some people on either side have a very deep feeling about this election:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27416412/

"Voters around the country, whether they support McCain or Barack Obama, say they are experiencing nail-biting, ulcer-inducing anxiety ahead of next week's election and all that's riding on it.

"I have kind of a general feeling of near panic on occasion," says St. Gelais, a 48-year-old McCain supporter in Ormond Beach, Florida. "The thought of Obama winning right now is scaring me to death. ... I'm just anxious and even a little depressed.""

"Democratic blogger Cynthia Liu has dubbed it "Post-Traumatic Election Anxiety Disorder," with hallmarks including restless Web surfing for election information, sleeplessness and making desperate calls to undecided voters.

"It's a very high-stakes election," says Liu, a writer in Los Angeles."

And here is the reason I think people are this way:

""It has to do with their existential view of how the world works," Miller says. "The fear is that a candidate who shares a different fundamental view of human nature is rattling.""
 
Superfreak said:
Um... I provided the link to all the polls. I was looking at the traditional Gallup poll given that it is currently the lowest and I wanted to quote the lowest and highest in the range.

I would guess the "expanded" Gallup poll is trying to account for some of the variables Lorax mentioned.
Click to expand...

The expanded usually give much larger margins to Obama. The traditional still has him ahead, though. Which style will ultimately be more accurate is something we'll have to wait tell election day to figure out.
 
Darla said:
You know I really hope you believe this. I know you’ve got everyone fooled, but not me. I know you’re hard thinking about this. I hope you keep it out until election night, fool.

I hope all of the repukes, but most especially the closet repukes, really believe that the race is tightening.

God, I hope you believe it.

i want to see you fuckers cry.
Click to expand...
You won't see me cry. I'm not voting for McCain. That's just your imagination again.

It does not, however, discount the gap closing in CO which was my point.
 
leaningright said:
Some people on either side have a very deep feeling about this election:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27416412/

"Voters around the country, whether they support McCain or Barack Obama, say they are experiencing nail-biting, ulcer-inducing anxiety ahead of next week's election and all that's riding on it.

"I have kind of a general feeling of near panic on occasion," says St. Gelais, a 48-year-old McCain supporter in Ormond Beach, Florida. "The thought of Obama winning right now is scaring me to death. ... I'm just anxious and even a little depressed.""

"Democratic blogger Cynthia Liu has dubbed it "Post-Traumatic Election Anxiety Disorder," with hallmarks including restless Web surfing for election information, sleeplessness and making desperate calls to undecided voters.

"It's a very high-stakes election," says Liu, a writer in Los Angeles."

And here is the reason I think people are this way:

""It has to do with their existential view of how the world works," Miller says. "The fear is that a candidate who shares a different fundamental view of human nature is rattling.""
Click to expand...

I didn’t say that they didn’t. I was just wondering of some republicans believe that God was going to give them the white house for their entire lives, that they were entitled, that they’re the real Americans…or is it, the real Christians? Well, whichever.

I was just wondering if some republicans believed that they American people were going to beg for more of this.

I find it a mildly interesting psychological phenomenon.
 
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