Biden is Shrinking Trump's Lead in Polls

M

martin

Well-known member
Down to one point in highly rated Siena poll.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/13/us/politics/trump-biden-times-siena-poll.html


"President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age, according to a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are now virtually tied, with Mr. Trump holding a 46 percent to 45 percent edge. That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.

Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president — 97 percent to 83 percent — but that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump."
 
martin said:
Down to one point in highly rated Siena poll.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/13/us/politics/trump-biden-times-siena-poll.html


"President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age, according to a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are now virtually tied, with Mr. Trump holding a 46 percent to 45 percent edge. That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.

Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president — 97 percent to 83 percent — but that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump."
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And now we will start hearing about Trump having paid porn stars for sex every night on the news. There will be witness after witness testify while one person, the guilty one, swears he didn't do it. It will be obvious to anyone that he is a liar. I suspect that many trump supporters that may despise Biden will have to say "I can't do it, I can't vote for a convicted felon, a rapist and a fraud for president. someone who actually spent his time fucking a porn star while his wife was giving birth to his son". And they will not vote at all.

Give it another month or 2 and Biden will start leaving trump in the dust.
 
Still too early for polls…. Hold on.

But I did notice the Rumppers have stopped posting about them!
 
We have not even had the conventions, it is still meaningless. Biden needs to craft a short answer to what is wrong with trump, and show his competence. trump needs to figure out an answer to the question "why do you want to be president?" that is not, "I need presidential immunity from my crimes."
 
With as much as they have been dishonest/wrong if you still believe what the polling experts claim then you are a moron.
 
"We have a platform....we must use it in service of UTOPIA"

And telling the truth is for chumps the regressives are sure.
 
Walt said:
We have not even had the conventions, it is still meaningless. Biden needs to craft a short answer to what is wrong with trump, and show his competence. trump needs to figure out an answer to the question "why do you want to be president?" that is not, "I need presidential immunity from my crimes."
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Wouldn't say it's meaningless. I think the pros would be alarmed if Biden were 20 points behind.
 
martin said:
Wouldn't say it's meaningless. I think the pros would be alarmed if Biden were 20 points behind.
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I think the pros should just be alarmed. Even if Biden were 20 points ahead, they should be alarmed. There can easily be a 20 point shift by election time.

In fact, I believe that Bush's lead over Clinton was more than 20 points in 1992. I have been trying to look it up, and cannot find it, but it was something like that. Bush was coming off the victory in the Persian Gulf War, and the end of the cold war. The pros were worried that Clinton would fall below 20% in some states, which would mean Democrats would not automatically be on the ballot. Jay Leno made the joke that with Perot in the race, Clinton could do what Dukakis never could, come in third place.

By the election, Clinton won by 5.5 points.

That can work both ways. Biden could easily gain, or lose 20 points by election time. What reassures me is that I just do not see trump able to gain many votes, because he lacks the ability to be an adult.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
????.....which swing states are you seeing that happening?....
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Think about this: In 2020, Biden got 46.48% of the vote in Texas, and trump got 46.8% of the national popular vote. So Biden did almost as well in Texas as trump did nationally. When Texas starts looking like a battleground state, Republicans are in real trouble.

An extremely stupid step by trump could throw all sorts of states to Biden, and there is one thing about trump is that he is always extremely stupid.
 
Probably gonna come down to the economy in November. It’s still revved up quite a bit and that inflation thing is still raising its little head.
 
Walt said:
I think the pros should just be alarmed. Even if Biden were 20 points ahead, they should be alarmed. There can easily be a 20 point shift by election time.

In fact, I believe that Bush's lead over Clinton was more than 20 points in 1992. I have been trying to look it up, and cannot find it, but it was something like that. Bush was coming off the victory in the Persian Gulf War, and the end of the cold war. The pros were worried that Clinton would fall below 20% in some states, which would mean Democrats would not automatically be on the ballot. Jay Leno made the joke that with Perot in the race, Clinton could do what Dukakis never could, come in third place.

By the election, Clinton won by 5.5 points.

That can work both ways. Biden could easily gain, or lose 20 points by election time. What reassures me is that I just do not see trump able to gain many votes, because he lacks the ability to be an adult.
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Right, polls are not money in the bank even just before election. Hillary had a lead on Trump in most all the polls. But national polls, which those were, do not forecast individual states and while Hillary won the national vote by more than million votes she lost.
She had the misfortune of polling the highest winning margin of any candidate in election history who failed to win the EC.
 
Walt said:
I think the pros should just be alarmed. Even if Biden were 20 points ahead, they should be alarmed. There can easily be a 20 point shift by election time.

In fact, I believe that Bush's lead over Clinton was more than 20 points in 1992. I have been trying to look it up, and cannot find it, but it was something like that. Bush was coming off the victory in the Persian Gulf War, and the end of the cold war. The pros were worried that Clinton would fall below 20% in some states, which would mean Democrats would not automatically be on the ballot. Jay Leno made the joke that with Perot in the race, Clinton could do what Dukakis never could, come in third place.

By the election, Clinton won by 5.5 points.

That can work both ways. Biden could easily gain, or lose 20 points by election time. What reassures me is that I just do not see trump able to gain many votes, because he lacks the ability to be an adult.
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Bush fucked up on the “no new taxes” thing. That’s what did him in.
 
martin said:
Right, polls are not money in the bank even just before election. Hillary had a lead on Trump in most all the polls. But national polls, which those were, do not forecast individual states and while Hillary won the national vote by more than million votes she lost.
She had the misfortune of polling the highest winning margin of any candidate in election history who failed to win the EC.
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It is very possible that could happen again. Most American might prefer Biden, but trump might be our next president.
 
BidenPresident said:
Trump will not win, he would only use violence.
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I somehow doubt trump will win big. he might win by the skin of his teeth. Biden might win big, but that is far fetched. I think Biden will win by the skin of his teeth. But those are just my opinions.
 
Walt said:
I somehow doubt trump will win big. he might win by the skin of his teeth. Biden might win big, but that is far fetched. I think Biden will win by the skin of his teeth. But those are just my opinions.
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I think Biden will win by landslide. Our corrupt media is propping up Trump.
 
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