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EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 50% Between 2005 and 2030; Transportation Accounts for 74% of Increase in Use of Liquids
25 June 2008
The IEO2008 projects an increase in liquids consumption even in a high-price scenario. The high-price case sees a decline in conventional liquids production compared to today and a stronger increase in unconventionals. Click to enlarge. Data: IEO2008
World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 50% between 2005 and 2030, driven by economic growth and expanding populations in the world’s developing countries, according to the reference case projection from highlights of the International Energy Outlook 2008 (IEO2008) released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The full IEO2008 will be released in July.
In the reference case, total world energy use rises from 462 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 695 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Global energy demand grows despite the sustained high world oil prices that are projected to persist over the long term.
Ieo20082
IEO2008 projects 51% growth in global CO2 emissions from 2005 by 2030. Click to enlarge.
Average world oil prices in every year since 2003 have been higher than the average for the previous year and prices in 2007 were nearly double the 2003 prices in real terms. The IEO2008 uses oil price cases originally developed in the summer of 2007 for use in the Annual Energy Outlook 2008, which focuses on the US energy outlook. These prices do not reflect the substantial runup in prices that has occurred since that time. In nominal terms, world oil prices in the IEO2008 reference case decline from current high levels to around $70 per barrel in 2015, then rise steadily to $113 per barrel in 2030 ($70 per barrel in inflation-adjusted 2006 dollars).
World use of liquids and other petroleum grows from 83.6 million barrels oil equivalent per day in 2005 to 95.7 million barrels per day in 2015 and 112.5 million barrels per day in 2030 in the reference case. The liquids share of world energy consumption declines through 2030, however, as other fuels replace liquids where possible. In most regions of the world, the role of liquid fuels outside the transportation sector continues to be eroded.
On a global basis, the transportation sector accounts for 74% of the total projected increase in liquids use from 2005 to 2030, with the industrial sector accounting for virtually all of the remainder.
The transportation share of total liquids consumption increases from 52% in 2005 to 58% in 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case. Much of the growth in transportation energy use is projected for the non-OECD nations, where transportation energy use increases at an average rate of 2.9% per year, doubling between 2005 and 2030.
In addition to the reference case, IEO2008 includes a high price case to quantify the uncertainly associated with long-term projections of future oil prices. In the high price case, world oil prices in 2030—at $186 per barrel in nominal terms—are nearly 65% higher than projected in the reference case.
Given current market conditions, it appears that world oil prices are on a path that more closely resembles the projection in the high price case than in the reference case. With higher world oil prices slowing the growth of demand in the long term, world liquids consumption in the high price case totals only 99.3 million barrels per day in 2030, 13 million barrels per day lower than in the reference case.
To meet the increment in world liquids demand in the IEO2008 reference case, the EIA projects total liquids supply in 2030 to be 28.2 million barrels per day higher than the 2005 level of 84.3 million barrels per day—an increase of 33.5%. To reach that reference case level, the EIA assumes:
OPEC producers will choose to maintain their market share of world liquids supply, and that OPEC member countries will invest in incremental production capacity so that their conventional oil production represents approximately 40% of total global liquids production throughout the projection.
Increasing volumes of conventional liquids (crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain) from OPEC members contribute 12.4 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquids production, and conventional liquids supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 8.6 million barrels per day.
Unconventional resources (including oil sands, extra-heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources are expected to become increasingly competitive in the reference case; the share of conventional oil in the overall liquids supply declines with expanded use of unconventionals.
World production of unconventional resources, which totaled only 2.5 million barrels per day in 2005, increases to 9.7 million barrels per day in 2030, accounting for 9% of total world liquids supply in 2030 on an oil equivalent basis.
Those trends are even stronger in the IEO2008 high price case, which reflects oil prices that are closer to those being paid in mid-2008.
Biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, will be an increasingly important source of unconventional liquids supplies, largely because of the growth in US biofuels production. In the IEO2008 reference case, the United States accounts for nearly one-half of the rise in world biofuels production, at 1.2 million barrels per day in 2030.
Other report highlights include:
Coal’s share of world energy use has increased sharply over the past few years, and without significant changes in existing laws and policies, particularly those related to greenhouse gas emissions, robust growth is likely to continue. Coal accounted for 24% of total world energy use in 2002 and 27% in 2005, largely as a result of rapid increases in coal use in China. China’s coal consumption has nearly doubled since 2000, and given the country’s rapidly expanding economy and large domestic coal deposits, its demand for coal is projected to remain strong. In the IEO2008 reference case, coal use expands by 2% per year between 2005 and 2030, and coal’s share of total world energy consumption reaches 29% in 2030.
Concerns about rising fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions support the development of new nuclear generating capacity. World nuclear capacity is projected to rise from 374 gigawatts in 2005 to 498 gigawatts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only in OECD Europe, where several countries (including Germany and Belgium) have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, and where some old reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced. China is projected to add 45 gigawatts of net nuclear capacity over the projection period, India 17 gigawatts, Russia 18 gigawatts, and the United States 15 gigawatts.
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Sustained high prices for oil and natural gas encourage expanded use of renewable fuels. Renewable energy sources are attractive for environmental reasons, especially in countries where reducing greenhouse gas emissions is of particular concern. Government policies and incentives to increase renewable energy sources for electricity generation are expected to encourage the development of renewable energy even when it cannot compete economically with fossil fuels. Worldwide, the consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources increases by 2.1% per year in the IEO2008 reference case between 2005 and 2030. In contrast, world coal consumption increases by 2.0% per year; natural gas by 1.7% per year; nuclear by 1.5% per year; and liquids by 1.2% per year.
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In the IEO2008 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030—an increase of 51%. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.
In 2005, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD emissions by 7%. In 2030, however, non-OECD emissions are projected to exceed OECD emissions by 72%.
Resources
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International Energy Outlook 2008 - Highlights
25 June 2008
The IEO2008 projects an increase in liquids consumption even in a high-price scenario. The high-price case sees a decline in conventional liquids production compared to today and a stronger increase in unconventionals. Click to enlarge. Data: IEO2008
World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 50% between 2005 and 2030, driven by economic growth and expanding populations in the world’s developing countries, according to the reference case projection from highlights of the International Energy Outlook 2008 (IEO2008) released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The full IEO2008 will be released in July.
In the reference case, total world energy use rises from 462 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 695 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Global energy demand grows despite the sustained high world oil prices that are projected to persist over the long term.
Ieo20082
IEO2008 projects 51% growth in global CO2 emissions from 2005 by 2030. Click to enlarge.
Average world oil prices in every year since 2003 have been higher than the average for the previous year and prices in 2007 were nearly double the 2003 prices in real terms. The IEO2008 uses oil price cases originally developed in the summer of 2007 for use in the Annual Energy Outlook 2008, which focuses on the US energy outlook. These prices do not reflect the substantial runup in prices that has occurred since that time. In nominal terms, world oil prices in the IEO2008 reference case decline from current high levels to around $70 per barrel in 2015, then rise steadily to $113 per barrel in 2030 ($70 per barrel in inflation-adjusted 2006 dollars).
World use of liquids and other petroleum grows from 83.6 million barrels oil equivalent per day in 2005 to 95.7 million barrels per day in 2015 and 112.5 million barrels per day in 2030 in the reference case. The liquids share of world energy consumption declines through 2030, however, as other fuels replace liquids where possible. In most regions of the world, the role of liquid fuels outside the transportation sector continues to be eroded.
On a global basis, the transportation sector accounts for 74% of the total projected increase in liquids use from 2005 to 2030, with the industrial sector accounting for virtually all of the remainder.
The transportation share of total liquids consumption increases from 52% in 2005 to 58% in 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case. Much of the growth in transportation energy use is projected for the non-OECD nations, where transportation energy use increases at an average rate of 2.9% per year, doubling between 2005 and 2030.
In addition to the reference case, IEO2008 includes a high price case to quantify the uncertainly associated with long-term projections of future oil prices. In the high price case, world oil prices in 2030—at $186 per barrel in nominal terms—are nearly 65% higher than projected in the reference case.
Given current market conditions, it appears that world oil prices are on a path that more closely resembles the projection in the high price case than in the reference case. With higher world oil prices slowing the growth of demand in the long term, world liquids consumption in the high price case totals only 99.3 million barrels per day in 2030, 13 million barrels per day lower than in the reference case.
To meet the increment in world liquids demand in the IEO2008 reference case, the EIA projects total liquids supply in 2030 to be 28.2 million barrels per day higher than the 2005 level of 84.3 million barrels per day—an increase of 33.5%. To reach that reference case level, the EIA assumes:
OPEC producers will choose to maintain their market share of world liquids supply, and that OPEC member countries will invest in incremental production capacity so that their conventional oil production represents approximately 40% of total global liquids production throughout the projection.
Increasing volumes of conventional liquids (crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain) from OPEC members contribute 12.4 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquids production, and conventional liquids supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 8.6 million barrels per day.
Unconventional resources (including oil sands, extra-heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources are expected to become increasingly competitive in the reference case; the share of conventional oil in the overall liquids supply declines with expanded use of unconventionals.
World production of unconventional resources, which totaled only 2.5 million barrels per day in 2005, increases to 9.7 million barrels per day in 2030, accounting for 9% of total world liquids supply in 2030 on an oil equivalent basis.
Those trends are even stronger in the IEO2008 high price case, which reflects oil prices that are closer to those being paid in mid-2008.
Biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, will be an increasingly important source of unconventional liquids supplies, largely because of the growth in US biofuels production. In the IEO2008 reference case, the United States accounts for nearly one-half of the rise in world biofuels production, at 1.2 million barrels per day in 2030.
Other report highlights include:
Coal’s share of world energy use has increased sharply over the past few years, and without significant changes in existing laws and policies, particularly those related to greenhouse gas emissions, robust growth is likely to continue. Coal accounted for 24% of total world energy use in 2002 and 27% in 2005, largely as a result of rapid increases in coal use in China. China’s coal consumption has nearly doubled since 2000, and given the country’s rapidly expanding economy and large domestic coal deposits, its demand for coal is projected to remain strong. In the IEO2008 reference case, coal use expands by 2% per year between 2005 and 2030, and coal’s share of total world energy consumption reaches 29% in 2030.
Concerns about rising fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions support the development of new nuclear generating capacity. World nuclear capacity is projected to rise from 374 gigawatts in 2005 to 498 gigawatts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only in OECD Europe, where several countries (including Germany and Belgium) have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, and where some old reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced. China is projected to add 45 gigawatts of net nuclear capacity over the projection period, India 17 gigawatts, Russia 18 gigawatts, and the United States 15 gigawatts.
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Sustained high prices for oil and natural gas encourage expanded use of renewable fuels. Renewable energy sources are attractive for environmental reasons, especially in countries where reducing greenhouse gas emissions is of particular concern. Government policies and incentives to increase renewable energy sources for electricity generation are expected to encourage the development of renewable energy even when it cannot compete economically with fossil fuels. Worldwide, the consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources increases by 2.1% per year in the IEO2008 reference case between 2005 and 2030. In contrast, world coal consumption increases by 2.0% per year; natural gas by 1.7% per year; nuclear by 1.5% per year; and liquids by 1.2% per year.
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In the IEO2008 reference case, which does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030—an increase of 51%. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.
In 2005, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD emissions by 7%. In 2030, however, non-OECD emissions are projected to exceed OECD emissions by 72%.
Resources
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International Energy Outlook 2008 - Highlights
