how much of these alt sources of energy are going to legitimately replace oil within the next ten years?
I think we do have a chance to replace foreign oil (which is about half of what we consume) with other energy sources within the next ten years. But ONLY if we make it a national effort. A nose to the grind stone, no matter what oil prices do.... we do it.
We have many options...
For electricity production....
1) Solar... with CURRENT governement subsidies it has a payback on commercial properties of about one year. For residential it is still about 15 years... so we need to work on that. Bottom line, the technology is there and continuing to improve. It will be economically viable without subsidies within ten years. We just have to invest in the future.
2) Wind... yes, it will take billions to get wind up and running. The main obstacle will be connecting the wind farms with the population centers. It will be costly, but can be done.... and Corning is the number one producer... so jobs will remain in the US.
3) Nuclear... I know this isn't a popular option, but Europe has shown it can be done and this is an option that we can have up and running easily within ten years.....
4) Coal facilities... while not ever truly clean... they could be... I'll explain later down the line....
What do we currently use oil for.....
barrel of oil yields these refined products (percent of barrel):
47% gasoline for use in automobiles
23% heating oil and diesel fuel
18% other products, which includes petrochemical feedstock—products derived from petroleum principally for the manufacturing of chemicals, synthetic rubber and plastics
10% jet fuel
4% propane
3% asphalt
From the above... what can we replace with alternatives?
1) Automobile use... convert to nat gas/electric vehicles, which not only burn cleaner, but we also have an abundance of untapped nat gas that will supply us for 120 years (not counting the nat gas we would not be using in electric production)... while I do not think this can be done entirely within ten years, I think we could realisticly replace 40-50% of cars within the ten years.
BUT we have to build the infrastructure for nat gas refueling and get a concerted effort from the automakers to build them. Honda already has their nat gas civic.... so we know the technology is already available. We just need the stations.
2) Diesel/jet fuel... ethanol production CAN not be done with grain. We need the food. But it CAN be done with cellulosic ethanol. The most viable at this time is Algae based biofuel. The algae can be grown anywhere. It uses far less water than crops or any other source of biofuel production. The algae can also be used in combo with coal plants to pull pollutants out of the air. Further, the remaining product after the oil is extracted can be used as a high carb animal feedsource.
Learn more here....
http://www.solixbiofuels.com/
While this won't eliminate oil entirely, it can be developed to cut down oil consumption.
3) Heating oil.... the main culprits of use are up in the Northeast.... More electrical generation and a conversion towards a clean electric heating systems can be done. The holdup here is the electrical production. For which we need to do the above.
Obviously the above was a long read, but bottom line we can get off of foreign oil in the next decade.... IF we start investing now.
The above should also be complemented by producing our own oil at full capacity. Why? When comparing the oil producers in the Mideast, Russia, Africa, South and Central America to the US... who has the more stringent watchdogs for the environment? If you said the US, you are correct. So why should we want other countries to drill our oil (not to mention transport it) when we can do it in a more environmentally friendly way closer to home? This would also keep jobs here in the US, keep the money here in the US and would help us reach that energy independence within ten years.
To be clear... it will NOT be easy.... but it can be done.
