Gallup: big dip in numbers for Obama since debate

Polls dealing with politics are like anything else "political". They may appear unbiased and nonpartisan. Even if they are by design, once they hit the "spin" world, watch out! CNN highlights one poll and Fox another.

Interestingly enough had the Polls been right in 2004 George Bush probably wouldn't be the President today.

The remark about polling 600 and flawlessly predicting the sentiment of 300,000,000 or 200,000,000 or 100,000,000 is not to say that polls can't get it right, but that they can also get it wrong. We have seen in several primary votes results that fell outside the MOE of prominent polls.

Even with all these polls in the last week, the results in PA will be from real votes and not polls. I expect Hillary to win by 10 pts. but that is just a guess. The latest polls have her by about 5. Tuesday will tell.

Having a college degree does not mean you can not doubt the validity of political polls. Either way we are stuck with them like an addiction.

In theory journalism is a nonbiased endeavor. How's that working out for us?

ib1yysguy said:
Am I the only person here who's taken a statistics class?

Anyone dumb enough to say, "It's only 600 people" is someone who never graduated from college or wasn't paying attention. The MOE grows with the fewer number of people, but assuming the methodology was correct (and it's Gallup, come on) then it's probably pretty damn accurate given the MOE.
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I don't get this thread. Not surprising considering the author.

Obama is the nominee. There is nothing anyone can do about it. This thread is irrelevant. It doesn't matter how she performs against him. This thread is a waste of time.
 
Just thought I ought to provide an update:

042208DailyUpdateGraph1_ysiel5l.gif
 
I wonder if WRL would agree then based on his own analysis, that McCain cant win the states he lost in his primary battles. ???
 
Jarod said:
I wonder if WRL would agree then based on his own analysis, that McCain cant win the states he lost in his primary battles. ???
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That's not what I said, that's in fact a very juvenile interpretation of what I said. What I said was it would add credibility to Clinton's argument if she blew Obama out in all the swing states. Which she has. That's a far stretch from one equals another.
 
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Since Willie loves polls so much, I thought I'd post these two for him. I enjoy them.

Clinton v. McCain:

08USPresGEMvC600.png



Obama v. McCain:

08USPresGEMvO600.png
 
a few more for ya...

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, the results are the same--McCain 47%, Clinton 45%.


Voters Trust McCain More than Either Democratic Candidate on Key Issues

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
 
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