Good Time to dump Gold and buy the dollar?

do you really think M1 is as important as it used to be.
I'm with all the guys who think the fed lowering rates will raise inflation.
 
I will wait until they are working to regain its position through higher interest rates to curb inflation.
 
can't curb inflation. oil prices aree finally cauysing inflation that no one can do anything about. so if iterest rates are raised, it will only make things more difficult becasue it will kill the economy.

just need to let this oil cycle run its course like it did 20 years ago.
 
First of all, that chart looks deceptive. Second it's just a projection.

Here's some famous projections:

800px-Itanium_Sales_Forecasts_edit.png
 
Toppy, No predictor is a sure thing, however in the long run inflation "is always a Monetary phenomenom". I also think M2 may be a better predictor than M1 but other than the early 80's M1 has been a pretty good indicater of inflation with the appropriate time lag, this ones 2 years.

The chart attached shows a clear link between M1 and inflation with the 2 year lag.

Interesting to say the least. My guess is 08 inflation will be slightly lower than 07.
 
I do think the dollar is going way up.
Most of the whinning about it is done by people who don't know that the dollar is where it was vs the Euro ten yrs ago.
 
won't M1 go up with the FED easing significantly.
Oil companies are a great investment at $50 oil.
 
Obfuscate said:
With M1 money decreasing are we setting up for the dollar to strengthen and lower inflation?

http://bp2.blogger.com/_gL4N3uYQG50/R2lvazIMjOI/AAAAAAAAAeQ/m1LePwaB_14/s1600-h/101-3.GIF
Click to expand...

I would suggest waiting given that gold just broke out to the upside today. Crossed $850 for the first time....EVER. There is now no established resistence.

If it holds above $850 tomorrow, I would take that as confirmation to the upside and would predict that we see $950 before we see sub $800.
 
Obfuscate said:
Toppy, No predictor is a sure thing, however in the long run inflation "is always a Monetary phenomenom". I also think M2 may be a better predictor than M1 but other than the early 80's M1 has been a pretty good indicater of inflation with the appropriate time lag, this ones 2 years.

The chart attached shows a clear link between M1 and inflation with the 2 year lag.

Interesting to say the least. My guess is 08 inflation will be slightly lower than 07.
Click to expand...

My guess is that Core inflation (minus energy and food) is around 3% for 08.

My guess is that inflation is closer to 15% for food and energy.
 
Topspin said:
I do think the dollar is going way up.
Most of the whinning about it is done by people who don't know that the dollar is where it was vs the Euro ten yrs ago.
Click to expand...

I'd say the dollar was looking pretty good against the euro ten years ago, since the euro didn't exist then.
 
Darla said:
I'd say the dollar was looking pretty good against the euro ten years ago, since the euro didn't exist then.
Click to expand...

technically true, but the ECU (which the EURO replaced) has existed since about 1980.....

I will give toppy the benefit of the doubt on this one and assume that is what he meant. Because he is indeed correct if we assume that. Given that the Euro converted one for one from the ECU, I think that is fair to interchange the two.
 
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