has mc lost

It aint over till November 4th... But If I had to bet, it be on Obama at this point. I do belive it will tighten prior to the vote.
 
Damocles said:
I think it is likely that McCain will lose, however it isn't over until the idiots fill the ballot boxes and 3 weeks can be an eternity in politics.
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true, there could be another major terrorist attack in the u s of a

voter fraud

some problem worse that the economy

people lying to the pollsters

'undecideds' voting race
 
Onceler said:
Don't forget the ol' "Bradley/Wilder" effect.

I never underestimate the American electorate's capacity for stupidity. I'll believe an Obama Presidency when he's getting inaugurated.
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Obama is just way, way ahead. He has been much much stronger than Kerry ever was all the campaign and stronger than Bush ever was in either campaign too. It is inconceivable that McCain could pull off a win.
 
Epicurus said:
Caaaareful. Obama has been saying some dumb shit lately.
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one severe case of foot in mouth could doom him, but he has been running a very intelligent campaign so far - a very intelligent campaign - he beat out hil (though just barely) and so far seems to be beating out mc

who are his advisers and potential cabinet members - mc might make a good cabinet member - say national security adviser or sec state...
 
Epicurus said:
Caaaareful. Obama has been saying some dumb shit lately.
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Maybe to a loony-libertarian.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gnId5-8IcQzFPWt6wi5R8XdB73-wD93QHUAO1

53-39. Those are massive landslide numbers. The fact that McCain went from 10 points ahead to behind in North Dakota when the first poll there in almost a month was taken should indicate something. Just think of all the other currently red states that no one has taken a poll of because they think they're completely safe.

Then again, the polls always seem a little biased left. The polls showed Bush winning in Mississippi by a 10 point margin in 2004 when he really won by a 20 point margin - kind of a big miss.
 
I don't understand the poll numbers. The Palin selection clearly energized the massive RR base, and the Obama 'associations' have been trickling out in the MSM for weeks, before all this, they were neck and neck... how can Obama be leading by double-digits? Something ain't right. Perhaps the polls are off, perhaps the left initiated some kind of 'drive' to raise Obama's numbers, maybe they used the same ACORN registration techniques? But I just ain't buying the poll numbers, it makes no sense from a logical political standpoint.

Obama has a huge amount of his support coming from the 18-24 crowd, and they traditionally disappoint on election day. It is entirely possible for the youngun's to not show up, and McCain, with the 'elderly' vote, could win big. Yeah, it's possible.

I still believe, come election day, a lot of white Hillary voters who tell pollsters they plan to vote Obama, are going to conveniently find something better to do than vote. I also think there are a large number of voters who will hold their nose and vote for McCain, even though they may be telling pollsters they are undecided, or third party now. I may be wrong, it is looking a lot like Clinton/Bush in '88 at this point. But I don't think we can accurately predict what will happen come election day, there are some mitigating factors in play, that have never been in play before in American politics.

It's not over until the votes are all counted. I admit, it doesn't look good for McCain right now, but things haven't ever looked real good for McCain, he is quite used to being the underdog. It's going to be a very close race, that is for certain.
 
Perhaps Dixie, but I wouldn't count on it. The economy took that dive, McCain tried to capitalize on it, while doing what he should be doing in the Senate, but he still came off looking like an floundering opportunist.

He should have used the period when he was up a few points, to define Obama for the electorate. He chose 'the high road', while the Obama camp kept up the registrations up to the last minute. It's not working well.

Now that the numbers are tanking, he's trying to 'define' Obama, but seems more like an implosion. There are always going to be nutters at rallies and such, but McCain just went along with the media and Obama hype, basically saying Obama wasn't 'scary', now he is? Not working.

All in all, it's not looking good. On the other hand, I hope that if the 'right' loses, they are better at using the time to reexamine what they stand for and want, rather than bitching about Ohio or whatever. It seems to me to be a very bad way to energize the base. Bad for the party, bad for the country.
 
Kathianne, I will not argue that McCain has run a totally incompetent campaign. He should be leading Obama by 20 points, and could have been, if he had done things differently. Obama's campaign has consistently tied McCain to his 'association' with Bush, although McCain was often opposed to Bush policies, and was one of the biggest thorns in Bush's side the past 8 years... in fact, he was the Liberals favorite Republican for a long time. McCain was reluctant to tie Obama to his 'associations' with Ayers, etc., and when he finally did, he caught a little flack over it, and dropped it. McCain's biggest problem is, he doesn't know how to fight-- he can't take a punch. It's not in his nature, he is the 'great compromiser' ...the one who is always reaching across the aisle and trying to make peace. Perhaps it stems from his days as a POW, but it seems he doesn't have any 'fight' in him, he simply folds and gives in. It's hard to beat the Democrats like that.

I posted a thread recently, chronicling what I felt was McCain's 5 Critical Mistakes, and among them was his postponing the campaign (and convention... and almost the debate) I think it was stupid beyond belief to think this would gain him ANY points in such a tight race. As you said, it came across poorly, but it also cost him precious campaign time... the time he should have been pounding Obama on his background and record. In the past few weeks, he seems to have picked up the tempo a bit, but it may just be too little too late. He also completely wasted his 'ace in the hole' Palin, just threw that trump card away trying to cater to the left-wing media. He let Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric 'define' Palin to the electorate... STUPID, STUPID, STU-PID!

I still don't buy the poll numbers. I honestly think they are way off, and this is a closer race than anyone imagines. We'll know soon. My concern at this point, is voter discouragement, people thinking McCain is going to lose, so why bother voting for him. It's one of the motivations the left may have in orchestrating some shenanigans with the pollsters, to portray Obama with this big insurmountable lead, to discourage McCain supporters. It's not like it hasn't happened before, when Clinton defeated Bush Sr., he was WAY up in the polls, he barely won the election, had less than 50% of the vote!
 
Dixie said:
Kathianne, I will not argue that McCain has run a totally incompetent campaign. He should be leading Obama by 20 points, and could have been, if he had done things differently. Obama's campaign has consistently tied McCain to his 'association' with Bush, although McCain was often opposed to Bush policies, and was one of the biggest thorns in Bush's side the past 8 years... in fact, he was the Liberals favorite Republican for a long time. McCain was reluctant to tie Obama to his 'associations' with Ayers, etc., and when he finally did, he caught a little flack over it, and dropped it. McCain's biggest problem is, he doesn't know how to fight-- he can't take a punch. It's not in his nature, he is the 'great compromiser' ...the one who is always reaching across the aisle and trying to make peace. Perhaps it stems from his days as a POW, but it seems he doesn't have any 'fight' in him, he simply folds and gives in. It's hard to beat the Democrats like that.

I posted a thread recently, chronicling what I felt was McCain's 5 Critical Mistakes, and among them was his postponing the campaign (and convention... and almost the debate) I think it was stupid beyond belief to think this would gain him ANY points in such a tight race. As you said, it came across poorly, but it also cost him precious campaign time... the time he should have been pounding Obama on his background and record. In the past few weeks, he seems to have picked up the tempo a bit, but it may just be too little too late. He also completely wasted his 'ace in the hole' Palin, just threw that trump card away trying to cater to the left-wing media. He let Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric 'define' Palin to the electorate... STUPID, STUPID, STU-PID!

I still don't buy the poll numbers. I honestly think they are way off, and this is a closer race than anyone imagines. We'll know soon. My concern at this point, is voter discouragement, people thinking McCain is going to lose, so why bother voting for him. It's one of the motivations the left may have in orchestrating some shenanigans with the pollsters, to portray Obama with this big insurmountable lead, to discourage McCain supporters. It's not like it hasn't happened before, when Clinton defeated Bush Sr., he was WAY up in the polls, he barely won the election, had less than 50% of the vote!
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Dixie, McCain just tried using Bush slime politics and it backfired on him and to his credit he walked away from it with honor.

The reason McCain is behind is lack of credibility. People what a change in direction and competent government. McCain does fine in both of those categories but the party he represents totally lacks credibility.

I think McCain is a great American and would make a fine President. I'm not voting for him not because I don't trust him but because I don't trust the Republican party after 8 years of Bush extremism and incompetence.
 
"when Clinton defeated Bush Sr., he was WAY up in the polls, he barely won the election, had less than 50% of the vote!"

Um... Perot was also running, and got 19%. Clinton had 43%, and Bush had 37%. That's a pretty decent margin there. He won 370 electoral votes to Bush's 168.

If that's "winning barely," I'll take that w/ Obama....
 
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