Just finished reading a new article on the war in Ukraine from a substacker I've come to admire on the topic, Simplicius. It can be seen here:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/negotiations-continue-to-go-nowhere
Quoting from the introduction and conclusion of the article:
**
The next go-around of negotiations has concluded today between the Ukrainian and American sides in Riyadh. It’ll be the Russians’ turn with the Americans in the same place tomorrow, where Ukraine’s positions from today’s meeting will be conveyed.
The most fascinating part of these developments is that on their eve, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff made a number of compelling statements on his media circuit. It provided some of the first glimpses of a real possibility of the US reconciling with Russia’s operative framework of the war. Most significantly, he implied that the US is on board with Russia taking not just Crimea, but all the newly annexed regions:
[video interview of Witkoff in original article]
In fact, Witkoff demonstrated such an emotional intelligence and sensitivity to the Russian cause, that some commentators have even gone as far as noting ‘this is the first time a US administration has viewed Russians as truly human.’ Maybe Witkoff has an affinity for his ancestral homeland—both of his grandparents were born in Russia.
Witkoff demonstrated this in his talk with Tucker Carlson, wherein he called for Russia and the US to work together—a proposal that strikes so discordantly against previous US approaches that it’s nearly surreal to hear:
[video interview of Witkoff with Tucker Carlson in original article]
But the moment that stole the show and aroused eye-watering resentment from the war-hawk faction was the following, wherein Witkoff relayed an unexpected level of commiseration between Putin and Trump, stating that Putin prayed for Trump after the shooting, and commissioned a portrait for him as a gift:
[video interview of Witkoff on Russia's RT in original article]
Such things lead one to believe there is some hope, after all, in Russia and the US resolving things in an amicable way. Of particular interest were simultaneous reports that Russia would allegedly end the conflict if the currently demanded regions were recognized, but with one big kicker:
**
Source: https://archive.ph/43mZI
The kicker?
This obviously fully goes along with Putin’s previous more ‘vague’ statements, echoed by the likes of Lavrov et al, about how Ukraine’s terms would progressively worsen over time, should they refuse to accept Russia’s current ‘generous’ ones.
[snip]
Now we wait to see what tomorrow’s meeting with Russia will bring. Until then, the spring thaws are starting, and both sides have big plans for coming offensives, with new ‘rumors’ suggesting Zelensky wants to organize another broad-fronted assay sometime in April to show the world the AFU’s still got its legs, and to preemptively steal the thunder of impending Russian offensives. With the political pressures heating up, it’s sure to become a pivotal time for the war.
**
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/negotiations-continue-to-go-nowhere
Quoting from the introduction and conclusion of the article:
**
The next go-around of negotiations has concluded today between the Ukrainian and American sides in Riyadh. It’ll be the Russians’ turn with the Americans in the same place tomorrow, where Ukraine’s positions from today’s meeting will be conveyed.
The most fascinating part of these developments is that on their eve, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff made a number of compelling statements on his media circuit. It provided some of the first glimpses of a real possibility of the US reconciling with Russia’s operative framework of the war. Most significantly, he implied that the US is on board with Russia taking not just Crimea, but all the newly annexed regions:
[video interview of Witkoff in original article]
In fact, Witkoff demonstrated such an emotional intelligence and sensitivity to the Russian cause, that some commentators have even gone as far as noting ‘this is the first time a US administration has viewed Russians as truly human.’ Maybe Witkoff has an affinity for his ancestral homeland—both of his grandparents were born in Russia.
Witkoff demonstrated this in his talk with Tucker Carlson, wherein he called for Russia and the US to work together—a proposal that strikes so discordantly against previous US approaches that it’s nearly surreal to hear:
[video interview of Witkoff with Tucker Carlson in original article]
But the moment that stole the show and aroused eye-watering resentment from the war-hawk faction was the following, wherein Witkoff relayed an unexpected level of commiseration between Putin and Trump, stating that Putin prayed for Trump after the shooting, and commissioned a portrait for him as a gift:
[video interview of Witkoff on Russia's RT in original article]
Such things lead one to believe there is some hope, after all, in Russia and the US resolving things in an amicable way. Of particular interest were simultaneous reports that Russia would allegedly end the conflict if the currently demanded regions were recognized, but with one big kicker:
**
Putin wants Trump to formally recognise all land Russia has taken in Ukraine, Kommersant reports
**Source: https://archive.ph/43mZI
The kicker?
Keep in mind Kommersant is not a ‘tabloid’ or rag, but one of Russia’s most respected publications. So, if we are to believe the claim above, Putin is essentially giving the West and Ukraine a short window of time to accept the current territories, or risk having Odessa be included in the official demands.
This obviously fully goes along with Putin’s previous more ‘vague’ statements, echoed by the likes of Lavrov et al, about how Ukraine’s terms would progressively worsen over time, should they refuse to accept Russia’s current ‘generous’ ones.
[snip]
Now we wait to see what tomorrow’s meeting with Russia will bring. Until then, the spring thaws are starting, and both sides have big plans for coming offensives, with new ‘rumors’ suggesting Zelensky wants to organize another broad-fronted assay sometime in April to show the world the AFU’s still got its legs, and to preemptively steal the thunder of impending Russian offensives. With the political pressures heating up, it’s sure to become a pivotal time for the war.
**
